Think like a rocket scientist: ordinary people can also "launch rockets"

Think like a rocket scientist: make the impossible possible (ozan Varol)

Professional field: business management

(The following are personal subjective feelings, for reference only)

Reading gradient: 1.0 (from 1.0-5.0, the higher the score, the more difficult it is to read)

Personal recommendation: 2.0 (from 1.0-5.0, the higher the score, the more personal recommendations)

People who love this book: pay attention to the way of thinking and have the ability to turn the acquired self into a concrete action plan.

Many people have heard the story of Superman Musk more or less. I always thought the story of his making a fortune was incredible. For example, building a rocket, he said to build it, and he said to launch it. It's as difficult as I want to put a magic bullet (a kind of fireworks, the kind I put on when I was a child). Accidentally exposed his age. So when I saw the book Thinking Like a Rocket Scientist one day, I decided to read it. Finally, it depends on how many roads there are between me and Musk or how many oceans there are. There are 9 chapters in the book, which focus on thinking, and do not involve too much hard-core knowledge of science and engineering, so on the whole, it is still relatively friendly to most people. But I also want to talk about it, because I want to find a way, similar to "martial arts." It is estimated that if many people don't put these thoughts into their daily work and life after reading it, they can basically only "read a lot of books and understand a lot of truth, but they still can't live well." Because of this, I decided to refine some core thinking points of this book and try to refine them into 9 sentences or 9 points. Convenient for memory and daily use.

Ozan Varol was born in Istanbul and later moved to the United States. Because of his love for rockets, he studied astrophysics at Cornell University and became a rocket scientist. In 2003, he joined the operation team of "Mars rover" and participated in the "Cassini-Huygens" project, which is the largest and most complicated planetary exploration mission ever launched by mankind.

Varol's articles have been published in The Wall Street Journal, Washington post, Newsweek, Time, Slate and Foreign Policy, as well as the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and CNN.

At the same time, he is a popular public speaker. He has been interviewed by radio and television for many times and delivered keynote speeches to large companies, non-profit organizations and government agencies.

This book is mainly about a way of thinking that can change our lives, and it has been moved behind the very difficult subject of rocket science. This can also be seen from the subtitle of the book: making the impossible possible. The logical framework of the book is clear, * * * is divided into three parts ***9 chapters. Each chapter talks about a key "mental method". Let's take a look at the nine "mental methods" of heaven thinking and extract some enlightening contents according to logic:

Mind method 1: Dancing with uncertainty

Inevitable certainty of uncertainty

It exists objectively, whether you accept it or not.

The story of Pluto's demotion shows that no matter how slight the uncertainty is, we will be deeply troubled by it. However, to adapt to uncertainty, the key is to figure out what is really disturbing and what is not.

In the modern world, we seek certainty in uncertainty, order in chaos, correct answer in vagueness and firmness in complexity. "We spend more time and energy trying to control the world than trying to understand it." Yuval Noah Harari wrote. We are looking for good formulas, shortcuts and opportunism-that bag of peanuts is proof. As time goes by, we lose the ability to get along with the unknown.

The beauty of uncertainty

If you walk along a straight road to the light switch every day to find the right answer, be careful. If the drug you are developing is definitely effective, if your client is definitely acquitted in court, or if your rover can definitely land, then your work is meaningless.

Only by making full use of uncertainty can we create the greatest potential value. We should not use a desire to vent quickly as motivation, but should use something that can stimulate curiosity as fuel. The end of certainty is the starting point of progress.

Uncertainty rarely leads to disaster. Uncertainty will bring happiness and discovery and give full play to your potential; Uncertainty means doing things that no one has done before and discovering things that no one has seen at least in the short term. When we treat uncertainty as a friend rather than an enemy, life will give us more surprises.

Accept and deal with uncertainty

First experience chaos, then make a breakthrough. When the dance steps stop, the progress will be terminated.

Redundancy: refers to the creation of backups to avoid the situation that the whole task is endangered due to a single point of failure.

Margin of safety: In life, we must make decisions with rough data on the basis of incomplete information.

Thinking Method 2: First Principle

The first principle is the key element behind every revolutionary innovation. Allen Elda once said, "Assumptions about things are your window to the world. You should polish the window every once in a while, or the light won't come in. "

Slave of inertial thinking and path dependence

Knowledge may make us slaves of inertia, and inertial thinking will only produce conventional results. Path dependence, that is, what we have done before determines what we will do next. For example, the engine that powers the space shuttle is one of the most complicated machines ever created by mankind, and its width was actually decided by a road engineer in the Roman Empire more than 2,000 years ago. The space shuttle engine is 4 feet 8.5 inches wide (about 143.55438+0 cm), because this is the width of the Utah-Florida Railway. The width of that railway is based on the width of the British tram track and is designed according to the width of the road built by the Romans, that is, 4 feet 8.5 inches.

Invisible rules: those unnecessary habits and behaviors that are rigid into rules. Invisible rules are not like tangible written rules. Written rules appear in standard operating procedures and can be modified or deleted. Written rules may resist change, but intangible rules are more stubborn. They are like silent killers, limiting our thinking without our realizing it.

The reason why it is difficult to get rid of inertial thinking

The cost of change can be great.

Vested interests also make us more inclined to maintain the status quo.

Genetically, we are destined to follow the crowd.

If we resist this stubborn and conformist practice, we will bear great emotional pressure.

Reduce resistance and embrace change.

The advantage of newcomers is that they can be creative, and there are neither inherent concepts nor time-honored practices and traditions. Without the shackles of the past, they can use first principles as the driving force for rocket design.

First-principles thinking mode should be used in the most important place.

Occam's razor principle: solving the simplest problem is the right solution. Simple things fail less, and complex things fail more easily. Simplification can also reduce costs.

Thinking Method 3: Use your imagination.

Lose curiosity

Before the world indoctrinated us with facts, memos and correct answers, we were moved by real curiosity.

At best, we encourage curiosity in words, but in fact, we do the opposite. Another reason why we do not encourage curiosity is that we need to admit our ignorance. Employees will be rewarded for adhering to the rules, but those who question the original process will not be taken seriously.

We didn't turn curiosity into normality, but waited until the crisis came. Only when we are fired, do we begin to consider other career plans; Only when our enterprise is disturbed by a young, energetic and eager competitor, will we gather employees and spend a few hours doing "creative thinking", but it is in vain.

Fear of the result is another reason why we avoid curiosity.

Retrieve imagination

Thought experiment: In all thought experiments, curiosity is the most important. Internalize this outward search for answers, that is, only look for answers from yourself and your imagination. Thought experiment is your own reality distortion field, your own adventure game, your purple crayon. The purpose of thought experiment is not to find the "correct answer", at least at the beginning of the experiment, but to start an investigation process without any preconceptions, which can often bring unexpected and profound understanding.

Naughty and childlike: It is a deliberate practice to temporarily relax the rules to explore the possibility of making other rules. The mind is more plastic than we think. If we pretend that life is a long process of going to kindergarten, our hearts may remain childlike.

Epiphany: People often use "epiphany", "epiphany" or "a stroke of genius" to describe "epiphany". Deliberately set aside a certain amount of time, stop busy steps to reflect on yourself, and fight against the current chaos with inner silence.

Compare apples and oranges ":It actually means" irrelevant things ". Creation is recombination. Creativity is to connect things together. If you want to break the rules and realize creative thinking, you have to find more "rules and regulations" to form a combination game. In order to promote the cross-integration of ideas, prestigious scientists often cultivate different hobbies. The change of one industry may start with the creativity of another industry. In most cases, the two industries will not fit perfectly. However, as long as comparison and integration are carried out, new ideas will be inspired.

Medici effect: the best creativity is not formed in a completely isolated environment, and breakthrough discovery is almost inseparable from teamwork. Renaissance is a sudden creative activity in the15th century. At that time, rich medici family gathered many accomplished people in Florence. These people come from all walks of life, including scientists, poets, sculptors and philosophers. When these people get together, new ideas will flourish, such as a hundred flowers blooming, paving the way for the Renaissance.

Thinking method 4: Exploring the thinking of the moon

Lunar exploration thinking: what is easy to do is often unimportant, and what is important is often not easy to do. If you set yourself a very high goal, even if you fail, you will be more dazzling than others. 10 We chose to go to the moon and do other things, not because they are easy, but because they are difficult. "

Divergent thinking and convergent thinking: produce different ideas in a free-flowing way, without preconceptions. We need both idealism of divergent thinking and pragmatism of convergent thinking. "

Review: With the forecast, we will look back at the raw materials in front of us instead of looking forward to the possibility of the future. Whenever we predict the future, we always ask, "What can we do with the resources at hand?" Looking back is turning over the script. The purpose of review is not to predict the future, but to decide how to realize the imagined future. "The best way to predict the future is to create it."

Thinking Method 5: Reconstruct the problem

The importance of finding the right problem rather than solving it. The answer is usually embedded in the problem itself, so building the problem becomes the key to finding a solution. It is much more difficult to see the essence of the problem than to solve it.

A good example: the $5 challenge method.

In the Stanford Science and Technology Entrepreneurship Project, students are divided into several groups, and each group receives $5. Their goal is to make as much money as possible in two hours, and then give the class a three-minute report on making money.

People will generally answer, use 5 yuan to buy entrepreneurial materials such as temporary car washing materials, or set up stalls to sell lemonade and buy lottery tickets. However, groups that follow these traditional practices often lag behind in their classes. The group that made the most money didn't use the $5 at all. They realized that the $5 was a distracting and worthless resource.

Reconstruct this question from a broader perspective: "What can we do to make money if we start from scratch?" The method of one group is particularly successful. Team members reserve seats in several popular local restaurants, and then sell the reserved meal time to people who don't want to wait in line. In less than two hours, these students earned hundreds of dollars.

However, the group that made the most money solved the problem in a completely different way. Students understand that $5 start-up capital and two hours' time are not the most valuable assets at their disposal; On the contrary, the most valuable resource is their three-minute presentation time in Stanford class. They sold three minutes to a company that wanted to recruit Stanford students and made a net profit of $650.

Thinking Method 6: The Power of Reversion

Our goal should be to find the right answer, not to be the right answer. The sign of great wisdom is that he is willing to change his mind.

Stubborn ideas

Facts are stubborn things, but our thoughts are more stubborn. We often make distorted judgments, which are caused by confirmatory bias to some extent. We underestimate the evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overestimate the evidence that is consistent with our beliefs.

What we can't see may be more terrible than what we see.

Use negation to reverse one's thoughts.

Multiple hypotheses: To ensure that you don't fall in love with a single hypothesis, please make more hypotheses. When you have multiple hypotheses, you will feel less dependent on them and more difficult to choose a hypothesis quickly.

Negative answers: Every negative answer can bring us closer to the truth, and they provide more information than positive answers.

Proved to be wrong: "falsifiability" distinguishes science from pseudoscience. When our attention changes from "proving ourselves right" to "proving ourselves wrong", we will seek different information, fight against deep-rooted prejudice and accept opposing facts and opinions with an open mind.

Psychological alienation: If you have difficulty challenging your own ideas, you can pretend that they belong to others.

Photobox: If you can't find the voice of opposition, make it artificially. The progress of science owes more to the conflict of ideas than to the accumulation of facts. Bohr and Einstein both rely on each other to stress test their opinions, because they both know their opinions too well to find their own blind spots. We must consciously walk out of the echo chamber. Before making an important decision, ask yourself, "Who will disapprove of my decision?" If you don't know who dares to disagree with you, you must find such a person. Putting yourself in an environment where others dare to question your point of view may make you feel uncomfortable and embarrassed. If you are niels bohr, who is Einstein who can do the thought experiment with you?

Thinking Method 7: Practice and Test

The problem of testing

Self-deception in the test: In a well-designed test, the result can't be determined in advance, so you should be willing to accept failure. Testing must move forward, expose uncertainties, not backward, and confirm preconceived ideas or ideas.

The disconnect between test conditions and reality.

In the correct test, your goal is not to find everything that can go smoothly, but to find everything that can go wrong and find the limit point.

Principle of "flying measurement"

Limit point test: The best way to determine the limit point of an object is to destroy it.

System test: Frankenstein's Sewing Monster may have unpredictable consequences if it is not tested systematically.

Observer effect and double-blind test: You can influence a phenomenon by observing. Distortion caused by observer effect is significant.

Put yourself in the same environment as the actual flight, so that you can fly in the sky quickly.

Mind Method 8: Failure is the greatest success.

Cognitive failure

If we are not allowed to fail, we will never set foot in the vast universe. Doing anything groundbreaking requires taking risks, and taking risks means that you will fail-at least sometimes.

Admit failure, but don't celebrate it. Reflect on failure, but not afraid of failure. Looking at failure in a positive way can help us save face.

Every failure is a valuable learning opportunity. Every failure exposes a defect that needs to be corrected. After every failure, we will take a step towards the ultimate goal. Learning can also eliminate the sense of shame caused by failure.

The best way to deal with unhappiness is to learn something. This is the only way that works every time. You will grow old and tremble; You may not be able to sleep at night, listening to the sound of venous disorder; You may miss the person you love; You may see the world around you destroyed by evil lunatics, or know that your honor is trampled by despicable people. At this time, there is only one thing you can do, and that is to learn and understand why and how things change.

First-order positive, second-order negative: time has changed the way we look at events. Some things that seem to fail in the short term will be reversed after long-term consideration.

Breakthrough technology often has an evolutionary process and is not revolutionary. As long as you study any scientific discovery, you will notice that it does not appear out of thin air, and there is no moment of awakening. Science is accumulated by failure, and each failed version is better than the previous one. From a scientific point of view, failure is not a roadblock, but a door to progress.

Every iteration is progress. As long as you can glance at the darkroom, it is a contribution; If we don't find what we expect, it is contribution; If we turn an unknown unknown thing into a known unknown thing, that is contribution; If we ask a better question than before, even if we can't find the answer, it will be a contribution.

Exposure to "failures of smart people" allows us to identify these failures and learn from them. Every failure can enhance our ability to recover quickly and make us more familiar with failure. Every crisis has become a rehearsal for the next crisis.

Effective fault

But the problem is that if we don't admit our failure and really reflect, we will learn nothing. What we should celebrate is that we have learned from the failure, not the failure itself.

To change the world by "solving one problem at a time", we must delay time to get satisfaction.

Your goal should be to focus on the variables you can control, that is, input, not output.

What did you do right in this failure?

With an input-centered attitude, you can change your destination freely. Goals help you concentrate, but if you refuse to change or change the original path, this concentration may also become a narrow vision.

Create an environment that allows smart people to fail and makes them not complacent. Failure consists of two parts. Part of it is the event itself, followed by disappointment, confusion and shame; The other part is our reaction to the event. "The first part is not under our control, but the second part is under control. Separate fear from failure and create a good environment for employees. Even if they make mistakes, there will be no fear in their hearts.

Reward outstanding losers and punish mediocre winners. There must be a clear commitment to support "the failure of smart people" and well-intentioned risk-taking. People must know that the failure of smart people is very necessary for their future success, they will not be punished for it, and their careers will not end. If there is no clear signal, employees will be careful to hide their mistakes instead of exposing them.

Mind Method 9: Success is the biggest failure.

Know success

Success is an "incompetent teacher" because it "seduces smart people into thinking that they will not fail".

Every success has strengthened people's belief in the status quo and cultivated people's attitude of regarding risk as nothing. With successful experience, risks that were originally considered unacceptable have become the new normal.

Success is a wolf in sheep's clothing, which destroys the relationship between appearance and reality. When we succeed, we believe that everything is going according to plan, ignoring some dangerous signals and the necessity of change. After every success, we will become more confident and put forward higher requirements.

The moment of success is when we stop learning and growing; When we are in a leading position, we are self-righteous and don't listen to other people's opinions; When we think we are destined to be great people, we will blame others because things are not going well. Success makes us think that we have the ability to turn stone into gold, and we can wave our fingers at will to turn decay into magic.

Success is a way to cover up these mistakes.

Overcome success

Delete routines: When we pretend that an activity is a routine, we will relax our vigilance and rest on our laurels. The remedy is to delete the word "routine" from our vocabulary and treat all our projects, especially those that are successful, as works that can never be completed. What the modern world needs is not finished products, but unfinished works. Only by continuous improvement can we become winners.

Close call: An incident that should have collided and turned a corner. When you are admiring your achievements and immersed in the glory of success, please stop for a moment and ask yourself, "What's wrong with this success? What role does luck, opportunity and privilege play in this? What can I learn from it? " If we don't ask these questions, luck will eventually part ways with us, and what awaits us ahead will be an attempted accident.

Ex ante autopsy method: "retrospective method" is to trace back from an ideal result, while "ex ante autopsy method" is to trace back from an unsatisfactory result, which forces you to think about what will go wrong before taking action.