After seven days, car companies are once again ushering in a wave of resumption of work, and the return of the "global factory" to the right track is just around the corner.

You can see the dawn after surviving the dark night!

Following the large-scale resumption of work on February 10, auto companies across the country once again ushered in a "wave of resumption of work" on February 17, and the auto industry is accelerating its return to normal operations.

Yesterday, GAC Group’s factories in Guangzhou began to resume production, including GAC Honda, GAC Toyota, GAC Passenger Cars, GAC New Energy, and GAC FCA. However, GAC's other factories, such as GAC Passenger Vehicle Yichang Factory, GAC Mitsubishi, and GAC FCA Changsha Factory, will not resume production until conditions are met. Prior to that, GAC Group adopted a flexible office approach.

According to Volkswagen’s plan, after six factories resume work on February 10, the remaining eight of its 14 factories in China will resume production on February 17.

The Geely factory also started to resume work in the past two or three days. Yesterday, Geely Powertrain Yiwu manufacturing base's first 10TD series engine rolled off the production line after the year, which means that Geely Yiwu base has officially resumed work; and at Geely Automobile's Linhai base located in Zhejiang Toumen Port Economic Development Zone, staff are also preparing for 19 Making final preparations for resuming work and production on the same day.

Before February 17, many companies had resumed work and production on the 10th, including Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, BAIC Group and Ford Motor's Chongqing and Hangzhou factories... According to the China Automobile Association According to data, among the 183 vehicle production bases across the country, 59 companies had resumed work before February 12, accounting for 32.2%.

Most car companies located in Hubei continue to be "suspended". It is reported that the resumption time of Honda's Wuhan factory has been postponed again until after February 24, while the resumption time of Dongfeng Fengshen, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Renault, and Shenlong Automobile has not yet been determined.

Stop production will inevitably bring economic losses.

Earlier, BAIC Benz "complained" to the Tianjin government: If the shutdown continues, it will lose about 400 million yuan every day - there were 181 days in the first half of 2019, and Beijing Benz's average daily sales were 1,558 vehicles. The average operating income was 430 million yuan. The daily average is 400 million yuan. When I first saw this number, I was shocked. However, this number is only a small amount for the automobile group.

Geely Automobile’s 2019 interim financial report shows that it achieved revenue of 47.559 billion yuan during the reporting period, with average daily revenue of nearly 300 million yuan;

In the first half of 2019, GAC Group, together with The total revenue of joint ventures/associates reached 168.685 billion yuan, with an average daily revenue of approximately 1 billion;

BAIC Group’s operating revenue in 2019 reached 501.23 billion yuan, with an average daily revenue of 1.4 billion yuan;

The operating income of FAW Group in 2019 was 620 billion yuan, with an average daily revenue of 1.7 billion yuan;

SAIC Group’s annual operating income in 2019 is expected to be around one trillion yuan, with an average daily revenue exceeding 2.5 billion Yuan;

......

Dongfeng Group, which has been hit the hardest by the epidemic, has recently begun to calculate the operating income loss of the entire group. If the latest revenue announced by Dongfeng Motor Group is Calculating the situation, its average daily revenue reaches as much as 1.5 billion.

Although the entire automobile industry has been shut down for almost a month, the Passenger Car Association predicts that the cumulative decline from January to February will be more than 25%, and some overseas institutions predict that China's automobile sales will decline by 3-5% in 2020. However, in the author's opinion, the impact of the epidemic on the entire auto market is not great, and the decline in auto market sales throughout the year may not be related to the epidemic.

Cars are not daily necessary commodities. The public's purchase of cars is inherently a long-term behavior - from deciding to buy a car → deciding what car to buy → how to buy a car → picking up the car and taking it home. This process often takes several weeks. Even for months. Therefore, under the epidemic, although consumers have little desire to buy cars, demand will accumulate.

Of course this is not empty talk!

Although Guangzhou’s small and medium-sized bus incremental indicator bidding was slightly postponed, it was officially held on February 3. I thought this bidding would have the 10,000 yuan reserve price last October, but the result was, The lowest transaction price reached 14,800 yuan, while the average transaction price reached 16,050 yuan.

This is the fourth consecutive month-on-month increase since October 2019.

As for production capacity, Cao Dewang, founder of Fuyao Glass Group, also said that the automobile industry has been in a stage of overcapacity, and it is not difficult for car companies to restore market demand.

So, for vehicle manufacturers, they will not be the most harmed by the epidemic in 2020. On the contrary, it will be the parts suppliers that supply overseas that will be the most harmed.

Due to the interruption of supply from Chinese parts suppliers, many overseas automobile factories are also facing suspension of production, among which Japanese and Korean automobile companies are the hardest hit. For example, three domestic factories in South Korea have been suspended until February 11 due to stagnant supply of electrical components from China; Nissan Motor's Kyushu factory has suspended production line operations for two days on February 14.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs: In 2019, the export volume of Chinese auto parts companies exceeded US$60 billion; more statistics show that more than 80% of the world’s auto parts are related to Chinese manufacturing; "Japan The China News Network is even more straightforward: for every US$10 billion reduction in China's manufacturing production, overseas production and sales will be reduced by US$6.7 billion.

Obviously, the global manufacturing industry cannot do without China's main artery.

When the lives of companies are threatened, they are likely to look for other ways out. After this epidemic, many overseas car companies will inevitably prepare backup plans just in case. For example, Honda is looking to the Philippines factory to replace the parts factory in Wuhan.

Although we have been trying to transform from "Made in China" to "Created in China" in recent years, we are all afraid that the advantages of the "World Factory" will be erased, as Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Transport Association, said Said: "The 'world factory' advantage that we have worked so hard to build may suffer huge losses, which is also the most worrying thing."

According to the analysis of "Nikkei Chinese Network": Generally speaking He said that the average inventory of auto parts is one month. If it is operated cross-border, the inventory may be increased to 2 to 3 months. From New Year's Eve to February 18, a full 26 days have passed, and the inventory limit is not far away, so pressing the "play button" (not to mention the "accelerator button") for the automotive industry is the most urgent thing today. matter.

Now that most car companies have resumed work, the "global factory" will soon be back on track. There is a high probability that the global industrial chain will not undergo any changes, which is fortunate.

Article?|?Daxiong

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.