Suddenly! Geely smashed 30 billion dry power batteries! What opportunity has passed?

How to interpret Geely's 30 billion "power battery"? Geely Automobile has set up a battery factory in Ganzhou, Jiangxi, with a planned total investment of 30 billion!

When this news came out, it immediately caused a heated discussion in the industry. It is really rare for car companies to be so "heroic"; Moreover, the capacity planning of Geely Ganzhou factory is also exaggerated. For example, the first phase is planned to produce 12GWH, and the subsequent phase is planned to produce 30GWH. What concept?

In 2020, the total installed capacity of power batteries for new energy vehicles in the world is only 136.30GWH, and the installed capacity of batteries in China is the highest but only 63.60GWH；; In other words, the planning goal of Geely battery factory is not "half of the country", but Geely seems to be "one big one".

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This is the recent performance of Geely Automobile in the new energy camp, which can be said to be quite uncompetitive; In the face of the low-end electric vehicle is not as good as SAIC's joint venture independent brand, the middle and high-end sales volume is far less than BYD's delivery volume for private enterprises and even new power brands such as Weilai Ideal.

Obviously, Geely Automobile is not competitive in the new energy camp, and it is a big problem that the core three power technologies are completely dependent on suppliers. Because the supply chain system of new energy vehicles is far less perfect than that of fuel vehicles, it seems quite difficult to control costs. If you can't control the cost of building a car, it will be difficult to control the price (positioning) of the vehicle, and it will be difficult to become a hot brand without technical advantages.

So why does Geely want to build a battery factory with 30 billion yuan?

The answer is, of course, "lay out the future". The trend of electric vehicles replacing fuel vehicles is certain, and we can get a positive answer from the perspective of energy security and carbon emissions. So it's not too late to work hard now, after all, it's completely transitioned to 2025.

It's just that a battery factory may take a long time from construction to mass production, and what technical changes will be unpredictable during this period; Therefore, there seems to be no movement in the cooperation between Geely and LG Chem, and this cooperation with Funeng is also full of variables.

Geely Automobile chose to build a factory in Ganzhou, Jiangxi, because Funeng Battery is in Ganzhou. The cooperation between the two companies has landed, but what is the level of Funeng battery?

Among the top ten lithium battery companies, Funeng is barely ahead of BIC, Yiwei, Guoneng, AVIC and Chennai. Is Huo Zun taller than Oh Oh? The main users of Funeng battery are FAW and BAIC, and the sales of new energy vehicles of BAIC will almost fall off a cliff in 2020. Are there any well-known new energy vehicles under FAW Group?

Therefore, the evaluation of Funeng is actually not very high. If it is ranked according to shipments, it should fall even more; The global ranking used to be very strong in Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., because China automobile market is the largest new energy automobile market, and Ningde has dozens of brand clusters as a supplier. Foday Electronics, a subsidiary of BYD, used to compete directly with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. with the installed capacity of a single brand, but now it has expanded the B-end market after changing suppliers, so Foday Electronics is the most powerful one at present, and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech form a triangle.

So can the cooperation between Geely and Funeng break this situation? It may be a bit difficult. There are two unexpected points in the planning of Geely's new energy vehicle.

What is the capacity planning of Funeng battery? Maybe it is too high to imagine!

The capacity planning issued by Funeng Technology Company is as high as "120GWH", which is the prospect of joint venture with Geely in the future. The starting capacity of 202 1 year should be no less than 20GWH. It seems that this plan is a bit "crazy". According to the global installed capacity in 2020 and the decline of Europe and America in the epidemic era after 20021year, this standard may be very close to the global installed capacity of power batteries.

Geely Fu can really have a big appetite, but will the individual user market "buy it" so much? Maybe it's unrealistic. With the planning of Funeng, it is almost difficult to balance the sales of passenger cars. It seems that the market space left by BYD Foday Electronics, the lithium-ion battery transformed by Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. and the well-known lithium-ion battery of Guo Xuan Hi-Tech is not so big, so Geely Commercial Vehicle Group has become the core of "self-production and self-marketing".

The planning of Geely Commercial Vehicle Group is also exaggerated, that is, to ensure that the annual battery purchase is not less than 80% of the demand, and these 80% batteries are products of Geely Funeng joint venture factory; Of course, the premise is that the procurement cost and the choice of other brands of batteries are low, and it is ok to think about it.

However, how many car enthusiasts have heard of Geely commercial vehicles? Recently, the pickup truck of Kaicheng load-bearing body is more famous, that is, "the more you play, the more you play"; Followed by some trucks and buses, but the market share is really not very high.

Focus: There are already two giants in the field of new energy commercial vehicles. First, An Kai and Yutong Bus, which cooperate with Guo Xuan Hi-Tech. It seems that this brand of buses can be seen everywhere, and there are many bus choices. Secondly, some brands of passenger cars and trucks such as Shenlong, Zhongtong, Jinlong, Futian and Jianghuai use Guo Xuan Hi-Tech's lithium iron phosphate battery.

Followed by BYD's commercial vans and rail transit, this brand of electric buses is also widely used in buses; Moreover, unlike Guo Xuan's model of exporting batteries to Europe, BYD commercial vehicles are directly sold in more than 70 countries or regions such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, and have high standards from many overseas factories. At the same time, rail transit is also exported to many countries. The batteries used are all from lithium ferrous phosphate, and there are high-standard blade lithium iron batteries, which are the power batteries that have passed the highest safety test.

To sum up, the cooperation of Geely Funeng Battery Factory seems to be nothing to see, and it seems to be "a little late" whether it is the layout of passenger cars or commercial vehicles. Therefore, the ultimate direction may be "changing power", because after Geely Automobile accepted Lifan Automobile, the research and development direction has turned to the mode of changing power.

However, there is basically no possibility of popularization in the field of passenger cars, which is calculated according to 5 million new energy vehicles; Even if the capacity of each vehicle is 50kwh, there must be at least1500-20 million battery packs with the same capacity in order to popularize power exchange. Only the cost of power batteries is sky-high. If the cost of hardware equipment and land is added, it can be said that the possibility of popularization is "0%". Then in the end, we can only try the power exchange mode in the commercial vehicle field, and perhaps only this mode can digest the production capacity of Geely Funeng.

Summary: The planning of Geely Funeng joint venture battery factory is good, but it remains to be seen how strong the competitiveness of Funeng is in the power battery industry where competition has become fierce. Whether Geely Automobile can gain a firm foothold in the new energy vehicle camp with Funeng battery is also an uncertain factor.

The score of 202 1 Geely Automobile seems to have shown some "fatigue". At the stage when Great Wall, Changan and BYD have launched strong competing products, Geely may not be able to secure the crown of its own brand.

Tianhe MCN authorized release

As a result of the competition, BYD has done a good job and benefited consumers.

Geely's problem is not just batteries.

Geely is cold.

The key is money, 30 billion. Who invested in it?