Low transfer fee, low income and low attention: Why are goalkeepers serious?

Low transfer fee, low income and low attention: Why are goalkeepers seriously underestimated?

Recently, the British "Guardian" analyzed in an article the reasons why goalkeepers are generally underestimated by clubs compared with players in other positions.

It's time to say goodbye, gianluigi buffon. If there is no handbrake in the world to keep a player away from retirement, then the match between Juventus and Verona on Sunday will be the last battle of his career.

Buffon's career debut was as early as1995-at that time, he was only 17 years old. Buffon, wearing a Palma jersey, was like an action movie hero, fearlessly facing stars such as George Via and roberto baggio in AC Milan. Today, after nearly 900 games, Buffon, who can win a championship trophy every year on average in his career, will always hang up Puma's sneakers.

World Cup, UEFA Cup, five Italian Cups, six Italian Super Cups, a U2 1 European Youth Championship trophy, and many Serie A champions' trophies ... In addition to these championship honors, Buffon also holds another record. According to Transfermarkt's data, Buffon is still the only goalkeeper among the top 50 players with the highest transfer cost in football history.

17 years ago, Buffon joined Juventus from Parma for a transfer fee of 52 million euros.

200 1, Buffon's transfer fee makes people feel crazy, but looking back now, Juventus' signing Buffon is simply one of the most cost-effective player transactions in this century. But few clubs dare to follow in the old lady's footsteps. Incredibly, among all the players listed by Transfermarkt whose transfer fees exceed 6.5438+0.5 million euros (about 6.5438+0.32 million pounds), only 6.5438+0.438+0 goalkeeper ... In contemporary football, the transfer fees of Walcott and Guido Carrillo both exceed 20 million pounds, which is outrageous.

According to Nick Harris Sports Intelligence, the low goalkeeper transfer fee reflects another bigger trend. Harris found that the treatment of goalkeepers is lower than that of defenders, midfielders and forwards, and the team attaches less importance to goalkeepers than players in other positions.

Taking the 2005-06 season as an example, the average income of Premier League goalkeepers was about 533,000 pounds, which was only 79% of the average annual income of all Premier League players in the same year (676,000 pounds). In the 20 16- 17 season, the average annual income of first-line goalkeepers in Premier League clubs was1680,000 pounds, which was only 69% of the basic salary of Premier League players (2.4 million pounds).

It seems obvious that some goalkeepers are seriously underestimated. However, the question is, can we prove this?

Ted Knutson was in charge of player recruitment in brentford and Danish Sino-Japanese Football Clubs, and now he is the director of football consulting firm StatsBomb. He thinks goalkeepers are really undervalued. Last week, knudsen explained in a speech at South Bank University in London that goalkeepers are often more difficult to evaluate than players in other positions. Goalkeepers need to solve the crisis, distribute the ball accurately, attack and try to keep the goal clean-but the data don't always correctly evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of goalkeepers.

For example, if every shot of an attacking player is suddenly stabbed in the back, it is of little significance to count the goalkeeper's success rate. It is really useful to compare opponents' expected goals (xG) with their actual goals conceded when evaluating goalkeepers' performance, but this statistical method does not take into account factors such as defensive pressure and shooting intensity.

Knudsen recalled a conversation with Bob Bradley, former Swansea manager, when Bradley applied for the position of coach of China Club. Although Bradley does not refuse to use data, he points out an obvious defect of the statistical model of predictable targets. "If one of my players faces double defense and scores a header from 6 yards away from the goal, you can't tell me it's a good opportunity." Bradley said, "I know it is very difficult to score goals in this situation."

Knudsen admitted that Bradley's statement had some truth. "But I have to look at more than 30 leagues around the world and find out those underrated players." He replied: "I can't observe more than 20 thousand players for several seasons in a row."

But now knudsen thinks he has a more reliable way to evaluate opportunities and goalkeeper's performance. Compared with the past, a key breakthrough in the field of football statistics today is that you can quickly track every shot in the Premier League. Not surprisingly, Mahrez and harry kane are ahead of other Premier League players in long-range shooting. Knudsen's data also shows the exact position of each player when someone shoots, and whether the goalkeeper is moving or keeping his position.

This can provide scouts or analysts with a lot of information, that is, they can evaluate the reaction time of a goalkeeper; Compared with other goalkeepers in different leagues, is this goalkeeper's position more reasonable and is his save excellent enough? Knudsen believes that this may push people to change their views on goalkeepers.

At StatsBomb, knudsen's colleague Derrick Yam used data to rank the goalkeepers in the Premier League in the 20 17- 18 season. Not surprisingly, David Degea ranked first-according to the quantity and quality of shots he faced, Degea conceded eight goals less than the average expected goal of Premier League goalkeepers. Arsenal goalkeeper Petr Cech came last, losing six goals more than expected (Simon Mignolet is not much better than Petr Cech).

We all know that Degea is much better than Petr Cech, but similar data can give you a better understanding of the respective values of different goalkeepers. As knudsen said: "In one year, Degea conceded eight goals less than the average goalkeeper, which is a huge number. Suppose a striker scores 10 goals a year, worth 20 million pounds; Regardless of age and other factors for the time being, if the striker can score eight more goals in the league, his value may triple (that is, 60 million pounds). "

If Degea can maintain phenomenal performance for several consecutive seasons (there is evidence that he can), then the minimum value of Degea and other top young goalkeepers will be between 50 million and 60 million pounds.

Compared with players in other positions, the older goalkeeper is also an advantage. After the age of 30, the physical function of players will begin to decline, but the quality of goalkeepers in terms of strength, speed and reaction time may decline, but they can often read the game better.

At Juventus, it is obvious that no one has considered the cost of signing Buffon many years ago-especially considering that Buffon lifted the Serie A trophy for the seventh consecutive season in front of fans who adore him last Sunday.