What can cloth be used for after being crushed?

The cover article of this issue of Atlantic magazine believes that the Great Recession may have passed, but the era of high unemployment may have just begun. Before it is over, it will change the lifestyle of American society and the character of a generation of young people. Will leave an indelible mark on many blue-collar workers. This may also destroy the marriage in many communities. In essence, it is letting many inland cities enter a desperate situation that has never been seen in recent decades. In the end, it will distort the future political direction of the country, American culture and the whole social characteristics.

People can't define the economic era we are entering. After nearly two years of pain, technically speaking, the Great Depression seems to be over. However, the working principle of the sand washer is far from returning to the normal state. To make matters worse, every recession since1980s has lasted longer than the last one. In addition, the United States may not fully recover from the latest recession of 200 1. People's employment never returned to the peak before the recession began, and the income level of the whole previous 10 year was frozen. However, the economic weakness caused by persistent problems in previous years should never be confused with the trauma that will have a long-term impact this time.

Last year, the unemployment rate of 10 was as high as 10%. Although the high unemployment rate will drop slightly in the next 2-3 years, by the end of last year, the average unemployment time was over 6 months. This is the worst situation for the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the first time since 1948 began counting. Now, for the roller crusher, there are six unemployed people competing for each vacant position.

All these statistics are not enough to fully explain the profound impact of the employment crisis on society. On a broader level, the unemployment rate and underemployment rate reached an astonishing 17.4% in June last year, which is the worst data since the 1960s. Young people, men and ethnic minorities account for the majority of the society. According to a recent survey, 44% of families lost their jobs, shortened their working hours or reduced their wages last year.

The worse effects of mass unemployment on family, politics and society need time to be slowly released. But these influences will eventually leave a deep long-term mark on the time after the return of the prosperous times. Even if the economy can miraculously recover completely in a short time, new brands will continue to appear. The longer the recession lasts, the deeper the brand will be.

Since last summer, economists from all walks of life have predicted the economic development trend. Some people speculate that it is a strong and rapid rebound V-shape, while others speculate that it is a slow recovery U-shape and a double dip W-shape. What's more, it is considered to be an L-shaped place where demand and employment are difficult to grow for a long time. But RobertReich, a former labor minister, believes that unless a new growth model is found, it may be an X-type that will never recover.

Historically, the financial crisis has always caused a long-term economic depression, so this time it will inevitably develop in this direction. Despite government aid and rotary kiln, there are still many banks with poor asset quality. Last year, *** 140 banks went bankrupt. As a result, banks have tightened lending standards and curbed the investment and business expansion of SMEs. However, the number of layoffs in such enterprises accounts for almost half of the total unemployed. At the same time, it is difficult for American exports to drive growth in the future, because Europe and Japan, the two major markets of the United States, are also weak.

When the recession ends, people will spend more. But in the foreseeable future, consumer demand is unlikely to promote strong economic growth. As of June last year, 1 1, there were 1 defaults in every seven mortgages, which was worse than 1 defaults in every 10 mortgage before 1 year ago. At present, the total household debt of the whole society is about 100% of DGP, which is much higher than about 65% in the mid-1990s. The heavy debt burden and the loss of wealth in the early stage forced the consumption expenditure level to drop. The poor economic situation has also changed the mental outlook of society.

The main reason for the economic stability last summer and autumn was the government's economic stimulus plan. Although the stimulus measures will last for some time, christina romer, chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, believes that fiscal stimulus measures may not have much impact on further growth after the middle of this year. She also predicted that the unemployment rate would not drop sharply until next year.

It is not easy to restore the current unemployment situation of 10 million people to the unemployment rate of 5% that lasted for a generation before the crisis. Because the population is increasing, new people are constantly entering the job market. Therefore, the United States needs to create at least 1.5 million jobs every year and at least 1.25 million jobs every month to keep the unemployment rate from increasing. But even if there are new employment opportunities, they all need new skills. Unemployed people who have been idle for a long time will lose their skills and their behavior will change. Even if there are job opportunities, they will not be employed because their skills have been abandoned.

Edmund, a scholar specializing in unemployment and winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in Economics? Edmund Phelps believes that the innovation potential of the United States today is limited. He believes that in the past 10 years, the economic vitality of the United States has been declining, but the growth driven by the real estate bubble has made people fail to pay serious attention to this point. He blamed today's situation on the following problems: the patent system is rigid, paying too much attention to the short-term performance of listed companies rather than creating long-term value, and the financial industry has only focused on stock speculation, regulatory arbitrage and mysterious financial engineering for decades, rather than funding innovation in the industrial field. He believes that unless these problems are solved, the new bottom line of unemployment rate may fall back to 6.5%-7.5% when the economy recovers.

In recent years, the situation of unemployed young people is completely different from that of many years ago. These people seem to enjoy the state after unemployment more. Because there are so many unemployed people, they think that the bad reputation of unemployment is no longer important. They try to make full use of their leisure time to think about their future. But this intuitive phenomenon does not mean that they can escape this disaster.

According to the data of the National Association of Universities and Employers, the number of positions for recruiting new graduates decreased by 265,438+0% last year, and it is expected to decrease by 7% this year.

In fact, the younger generation may have seen the opportunity in their life ruined forever by this economic recession. Lisa Kahn, an economist at Yale University who specializes in studying the impact of economic recession on young people's income, believes that, all things being equal, the income of new graduates at the initial stage of employment will be reduced by at most 7% for every increase in the unemployment rate of roller crushers, especially for graduates between 1979 and 1989. More unfortunately, these people have not seen the opportunity to make up for the income gap with previous graduates.

Another study shows that two-thirds of the salary increase at work occurs in the first 10 years after joining the work. Once you enter family life, it will be more difficult to get promoted and change the nature of your job. In addition, graduates who are employed during the economic recession are tied to a job almost all their lives, so it is difficult to change jobs. Only in this way can you keep your job and get a chance of promotion. This will enable a generation of young people to gradually form this risk-fearing character.

There are clear facts that young people who still can't find a job within 1-2 years after graduation will find it difficult to get on the right track of employment in the future. Part of the reason is that many of them have been injured and become completely different people. KrysiaMossakowski, a sociologist at the University of Miami, found that young people who have been unemployed for a long time will have permanent changes in behavior and spirit. It is nonsense to say that unemployment will not cause psychological harm. Young people who have been unemployed for a long time will indulge in alcoholism and develop into depression syndrome after entering middle age.

A large number of research documents prove that people who have been unemployed for a long time will get worse and worse under economic and mental pressure. The latest research results prove that the health status of the younger generation has become very poor, which may be accompanied by life. Tilvon Wocht, an economist at Columbia University, and others paid attention to the death rate of the unemployed in Pennsylvania in the 1960s. They found that, especially for men aged 40-50, the mortality rate after unemployment increased significantly. They also found that the average life expectancy of unemployed men aged around 30 is shorter than that of unemployed men aged 50-55, and shorter than that of their peers who have never been unemployed 1.5 years.

Judging from the current situation, it seems that many young people nowadays are not prepared for the most difficult period. Jean Twenge, an associate professor of psychology at the University of San Diego, found that compared with young people in history, today's young people's attitude towards work has undergone a fundamental change. They don't want to work for the sake of work, but only hope that their jobs can adapt to their interests and lifestyles. In addition, their income expectations far exceed their predecessors, and they believe that financial success is the most important. This generation has lived in such an environment and received such education since childhood.

In addition, the young generation with strong self-esteem is full of energy. They refused to accept the job against their wishes. According to the president of the University of Connecticut, it is common for graduates to refuse employment without making any choice, because they think these jobs are not worth doing.

According to a survey by the polling agency Pew, during the economic recession, about 65,438+00% of young people under the age of 35 moved back to their parents. The proportion of young people in their twenties who continue to live with their parents is 20%, which is twice that after 1970.

Whatever the reason, it is worrying that so many young people failed to take root in the workplace even before the recession. This means that a large number of young people are weak before the decline, and it is difficult to resist all kinds of problems brought about by future unemployment. This also means that they will have to endure purgatory in the future.

However, the Great Recession has also changed many people's values. Many people admit that they have become less concerned about material things and more cautious in consumption. They prefer to volunteer in their spare time. They become more compassionate and more concerned about the suffering of others.

This may be a meaningful impact of the economic recession. It at least wakes people up from the national craze of getting rich overnight and living in bigger houses, and ends the era of reckless personal expenses. The latest research results of economists show that the previous generations who experienced recession when they were young will pay more attention to social injustice and realize the role of luck in their lives. They say that the generation that experienced the Great Depression in 1930s became particularly adaptable to the environment and loved their families more. This great recession may make today's young people face reality, feel more responsible and grow into adults who work harder than previous generations.

The United States is currently in a quagmire, and this state has actually lasted for a long time. The whole society is living in a slow movement, at the same time, it is also contaminating American culture and making it weaker for many years to come. People have a civic and moral responsibility to try their best to stop things before they get worse. (eastern Anhui)

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