Xi' an house prices continue to rise. Will the regulation continue to increase in September?

In the future, the "Xiaoyangchun" market after the Spring Festival will make the property market in some cities quickly pick up, and the price increase will accelerate, which will also affect the land market in some cities, making high-premium plots and even "land kings" frequent. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued early warning tips to 10 cities in April and May because the housing prices in some cities rose too fast. Therefore, some cities have introduced policies to "overweight" regulation to cool the market.

In the first half of the past year, many keywords such as "stop falling order" and "overweight regulation" emerged in the property market, and these keywords are also a summary of the performance of some cities in the first half of the year. The reporter of National Business Daily chose three cities, Xi, Xiamen and Foshan, to make an inventory of their real estate markets in the first half of the year.

In the first half of this year, if you want to say which city's property market is hot, many people may think of a western city-Xi 'an for the first time.

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May this year, Xi 'an's housing price rose at the top of the national cities. This is not the first time that it has led this country. Xi house price index has been rising for 39 consecutive months.

Prior to this, Xi 'an had introduced the "four limits" related control policies, and in April this year, a new provident fund policy was introduced. On June 20th, it even issued Xi 'an's "strictest" regulation policy, which reflected the local government's determination to curb the overheating of the property market.

According to a survey conducted by the reporter of National Business Daily, there is actually a turning point behind the appearance of Xi 'an's lead in May in the continuous and increasing regulation.

The decontamination cycle is less than 5 months.

According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, in the first half of this year, the new supply of commercial housing in Xi 'an was 7.59 million square meters, down 23.3% year-on-year; Transaction price 13060 yuan/m2, up from 20 181.9%; The ratio of supply and demand is 0.8, which continues the trend of short supply.

In terms of inventory, data from Zhongyuan Real Estate showed that by the end of June, the saleable inventory of Xi 'an commercial housing was about 28.46 million square meters. According to the average monthly decontamination rate in the past six months, the decontamination cycle is about 17. 1 month, which is 1.4 months shorter than that at the beginning of the year. The cycle of commercial housing is within 5 months.

In this regard, Xi' an analyst Cai told reporters that the de-chemical cycle was shortened because the transaction volume went up. At the earliest time, due to the small scale of Xi 'an's chemical industry, supply always exceeded demand. At present, the conversion rate of newly opened projects is basically above 80%. As long as it is a newly launched project, I don't worry about not selling it. At present, the houses digested by the market are all the latest stocks. Cai said that the security market has been warming up since 20 16. Before 20 16 years ago, the house price in Xi' an fluctuated between 6500 and 7000 yuan/square meter for 5~ 10 years, with little fluctuation. But from the second half of 20 16, the whole market began to heat up. With the influx of a wave of real estate speculators and the presence of brand-name housing enterprises, residents' mentality of buying houses has changed, and house prices have quietly risen. As a result, the demand that has been suppressed by the market suddenly broke out, and house prices basically doubled.

In the first half of 20 19, the supply of commercial housing in Xi' an property market increased by 5.26 million square meters, which was lower than that in the same period of 20 17 and 20 18. However, the transaction price of 13287 yuan/square meter reached a record high, with an increase of 13. 1%, but it was narrower than last year.

Judging from the housing supply and marketing situation in Xi 'an in the first half of the year, Chanba and Qujiang are still far ahead of other regions in housing supply and transaction. For example, Chanba ranked first in Xi 'an with a turnover of 1.66 million square meters, accounting for 23.2% of the city's total turnover; Qujiang and Chengdong came next, accounting for 17.8% and 14.6% of the city's total transaction volume respectively.

In addition, the supply and marketing of Qinhan New Town in non-restricted areas is also relatively prosperous; As a new hot spot of home ownership, the port area ranks third in the city in terms of transaction volume, although the supply is not large.

In order to curb the hot market, Xi 'an began to introduce control policies from 20 18, and began to buy houses by lottery that year.

On June 20 this year, Xi 'an upgraded the control policy on the basis of the original "four limits" control policy, clarified the years of settlement and purchase, increased the years of social security payment for non-local registered population, and included Lintong in the scope of purchase restriction for the first time. This policy is not only an upgrade to the existing regulatory policies, but also a patch to the "New Deal for Talents" that has been implemented for more than two years, and Lintong is included in the scope of purchase restriction for the first time, which can be called the "strictest" regulatory policy in Xi 'an.

Housing enterprises return to rationality by taking land.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate, there were 54 new residential land supplies in Xi 'an in the first half of the year, up by 10.4% year-on-year. The turnover was 5.83 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%; The floor price of the transaction was 2537 yuan/square meter, up 38.8% year-on-year; However, the transaction premium rate is 15.8%, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than that of 20 18.

In the first half of the year, Chanba District, with the most active performance, led the city with the turnover of1170,000 square meters, accounting for 20.3% of the total turnover of the city. Lianhu District and Qujiang New District are behind, and suburban counties such as Gaoling and Huyi District are affected by the shrinking supply side, and no land transactions have been made.

The National Business Daily reporter noted that with the scarcity of land resources in the main urban area of Xi in the past two years, many brand housing enterprises have started the journey of going north and west. Qin and Han Dynasties New Town seized the opportunity. With the location advantage of being close to Anjing Economic Development Zone and Xianyang Dongcheng, the blessing of ecological environment and cultural heritage, driven by the subway airport line and the gathering of high-end housing, the supply and transaction of housing is much higher than that of other non-restricted areas.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate, in the first half of the year, the accumulated land acquisition amount of TOP 10 housing enterprises was 46.9 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year.

In addition, in the first half of the year, the sales of Xi 'an TOP 10 real estate enterprises reached 58.83 billion yuan. Vanke, Greenland and Sunac are still in the top three. Among them, although there are not many projects on sale in Hui Jin, relying on Qujiang Hui Jin World City, the sales in the first half of the year exceeded 5.3 billion yuan, and the sales difference was less than 654.38+0 billion yuan, which was behind Sunac.

In terms of market share, TOP 10 real estate enterprises accounted for 38.8% of the city's total transaction volume in the first half of the year, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year and down 2.4 percentage points from 20 18. It is worth noting that the listed companies are all foreign-funded brand housing enterprises, and none of the local housing enterprises are on the list.

The National Business Daily reporter learned that in the Xi 'an Tupai market, there have been more than 40 land auctions before, and dozens of real estate enterprises have grabbed a popular plot from time to time. However, in 20 19, housing enterprises seem to be much calmer, and land acquisition is gradually biased towards rationality.

Cai said that the current housing demand and housing prices have reached a certain balance. This is quite consistent with the surrounding cities of the same level. In the future, Xi 'an's housing prices will rise, but not by a large margin. Therefore, housing enterprises will be more cautious and will not be more radical in land acquisition attitude and regional choice.

With the continuous upward movement of the market, Xi 'an's hot spots are gradually developing outside the Third Ring Road, and land acquisition by housing enterprises is now basically concentrated outside the Third Ring Road. For property buyers, there are few items for sale in the main city and the price is high. Property buyers will expand their demand to the new district, so the pressure of buying a house will be less.

Cai told reporters that the purchase restriction policy has been upgraded, and an has included the peripheral area of Linyi into the scope of purchase restriction. In Xixian New Area, where the market is hot, except Fengdong, other sectors have not been included, and Xixian New Area may be more popular in the future.