What is the impact of the comprehensive two-child policy on social insurance?

What is the impact of the comprehensive two-child policy on social insurance?

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's proposal on the 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development clearly stated that the full implementation of the policy that a couple can have two children has aroused great concern in society. The implementation of this policy will have a far-reaching impact on the population structure of China. Recently, Dong, deputy director of the Medical Insurance Research Office of the Social Security Research Institute, who is in charge of the impact of the "comprehensive two-child" policy on social insurance, pointed out in an interview that it is very necessary to understand the short-term and long-term, positive and negative effects of this policy to guide the future social insurance work.

The "two-child policy" will not put great pressure on the maternity insurance fund.

Q: the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's proposal to formulate the 13th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development clearly states that a couple can have two children in an all-round way. For social insurance, after the implementation of the policy, maternity insurance is the most affected at present. Would you please talk about the influence of fully liberalizing the two-child policy on fund expenditure in combination with the operation of maternity insurance in China in recent years?

Dong: In recent years, the birth rate in China has been declining. The number of women of childbearing age decreased from 349 million in 2000 to 309 million in 20 13, and the proportion of the population decreased from 27.59% to 22.70%. The number of babies born dropped from 1777 in 2000 to 20 13. It can be seen that if the family planning policy is not adjusted, the number of babies born will further decline.

After the implementation of the "two-child policy", the expenditure of maternity insurance fund will be increased first. In the past few years, China's maternity insurance fund has a large balance, which can basically bear the increase in expenditure brought about by the "comprehensive two-child" policy. At the end of 20 14, the accumulated balance of the national maternity insurance fund was enough to pay for 20 months' treatment on average. Although the annual balance rate of maternity insurance fund has been declining in recent years, the fund balance rate of 20 17.5% has still reached. Generally speaking, the "two-child policy" will not cause great pressure on the maternity insurance fund.

Q: If the birth policy is not adjusted, what will happen to the income and expenditure of the social security fund?

Dong: The threat of aging population to social security funds is long-term, and the birth policy will not have an immediate impact on the population structure. In the next 10 year, the balance of income and expenditure of employee pension insurance and employee medical insurance funds will encounter difficulties. Especially in the next 20 years, this problem will be more serious. Therefore, the social security department should do a good job in fund early warning, and governments at all levels should attach great importance to the smooth operation of the fund and ensure the payment of social security benefits through various measures to maintain social stability. If the "comprehensive two-child" policy can be well implemented, then the positive impact of this policy on the fund will appear in 20 years.

Beware of the "adverse selection" risk of the insured population on maternity insurance

Q: In 20 13, China began to implement the new policy of "two children alone". Since the implementation of the new policy, what changes have taken place in China's maternity insurance fund expenditure?

Dong: After the implementation of the "two children alone" policy in 20 13, compared with the data in 20 14, although the number of babies born nationwide only increased by 3%, the number of births covered by maternity insurance increased by 30.5%, while the number of births covered by maternity insurance only increased by 10.4% in the same period. This shows that people covered by maternity insurance have a stronger desire to have children, or people with a stronger desire to have children will actively participate in maternity insurance. In this case, the annual balance rate of the maternity insurance fund dropped sharply, from 27.9% in 20 12 to 17.5% in 20 14. Therefore, maternity insurance itself should control the risk of "adverse selection" Of course, if maternity insurance is taken as a measure to encourage fertility, then the government should strengthen its investment in maternity insurance. Fortunately, the maternity insurance fund is small, accounting for only 1. 1% of the total social security fund, and will not cause too much financial burden.

For maternity insurance, the "adverse selection" risk of the insured is worthy of attention. Because maternity insurance is not compulsory for everyone, there may be people who are willing to have children and those who are unwilling to have children who are not insured, resulting in a substantial increase in the expenditure of maternity insurance funds, while the increase in fund income is limited. For example, in 20 14, the population covered by national maternity insurance only increased by 3.9%, while the number of children increased by 19.2%. After the implementation of the "two-child policy", the risk of "adverse selection" will become more prominent.

Q: What measures do you think local social security departments should take to effectively avoid "adverse selection" of maternity insurance?

Dong: Strengthening participation in insurance according to law and realizing full coverage are the main measures to control the risk of "adverse selection". At present, China's maternity insurance mainly covers employees, so it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of participation and require all employees to participate in maternity insurance. If the number of employees participating in basic medical insurance is taken as the number of people who should participate in maternity insurance, then the participation rate in 20 14 years is about 8 1%, so there is still room for improvement.

It is estimated that the "comprehensive two children" in 2035 will curb the decline in the system dependency ratio.

Q: Fully liberalizing the two children is an important measure to actively cope with the aging population. For the basic old-age insurance, the direct benefit is to improve the system dependency ratio. Please introduce the changes of dependency ratio in China's basic old-age insurance system in recent years.

Dong: In 20 14, the proportion of "on-the-job/retired" employees in employee pension insurance has dropped to 2.97, that is to say, less than three on-the-job employees have to support 1 retiree, while this proportion was 3.30 in 2000 and 3.90 in 1995. After 20 10, with the expansion of old-age insurance, more migrant workers participated in the old-age insurance for employees. The age structure of this group of people is relatively young, otherwise the proportion of "on-the-job/retired" employees in the old-age insurance for employees will decline faster. At present, the participation rate of employee pension insurance and medical insurance is already very high, and there is almost no room to increase the proportion of "on-the-job/retired" personnel by expanding the scope. We expect that the "two-child policy" can curb the decline in the proportion of "on-the-job/retired" after 2035, but it will take longer to reverse the downward trend.

Q: What is the significance of the "two-child policy" to the balance of income and expenditure of China's basic old-age insurance and basic medical insurance funds?

Dong: After 20 years, the population born after the implementation of the "two-child policy" will enter the labor market, which will improve the structure of the working population. Therefore, it will have a favorable impact on the employee medical insurance fund and the endowment insurance fund. It is worth noting that the analysis shows that the "comprehensive two-child" policy can only alleviate the threat of aging to employee medical insurance and endowment insurance, but it cannot completely solve this problem. According to estimates, after 2025, it will be difficult for employees' medical insurance funds and endowment insurance funds to maintain a balance by their own income and expenditure. Even if the "two-child policy" can significantly improve the population structure, it will not have a positive effect on the social security fund until after 2035. Moreover, this positive effect is difficult to eliminate the fund deficit in a short time. From the perspective of improving the population structure, it is still worrying to what extent the "two-child policy" can increase the fertility rate. After the implementation of the "two-child policy alone" in 20 13, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, there were only 490,000 more babies born nationwide in 20 14 than in 20 12, an increase of about 3%.

Based on the above analysis, the "two-child policy" is an inevitable move to improve the population structure of China, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of China's social economy. Although there will be no immediate effect in the short term, it will still help to improve the balance of payments of social security funds in the long run. Therefore, the "two-child policy" should be publicized and implemented as soon as possible.

Zhong Renxu 'an

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The maternity insurance rate in our province will be dynamically adjusted

In order to better protect the maternity insurance benefits of employees, the Provincial Department of Human Resources and Social Security and the Provincial Department of Finance recently formulated and promulgated the Opinions on Establishing a Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism for Maternity Insurance Rates. It is reported that in the future, there will be a current deficit in maternity insurance funds around the country, and the rate can be raised. If there is a surplus in operation, the rate can be reduced and adjusted dynamically.

The reporter learned that the maternity insurance premium is paid by the employer according to a certain proportion of the total wages of the employees of the unit, and the individual employees do not need to pay. The Regulations on Maternity Insurance for Employees in Jiangsu Province, which was implemented in our province from June 5438 to 10 last year, clearly stated that the proportion of contributions should be adjusted to generally not exceed 0.5%, and those exceeding 0.5% should be reported to the provincial government for approval.

The "Opinions" require that when there is a current deficit in the operation of the municipal maternity insurance fund with districts and the release level of the city's accumulated balance (that is, the city's accumulated balance/the city's average deficit in the current month) is lower than 15 months, the maternity insurance rate can be increased; When the current fund operating balance exceeds the monthly average payment level 15 (that is, the accumulated balance of the whole city/the current monthly average expenditure of the whole city), the maternity insurance rate can be lowered. When the fund has operational risks, the city divided into districts shall report and start the rate adjustment procedure. When it is proposed to increase the rate, the current balance rate of the fund (current balance of the city/current income of the city) shall not be higher than 3% in principle.

The opinion also stipulates that all localities should, in accordance with the requirements of the Regulations on Maternity Insurance for Employees in Jiangsu Province, improve maternity insurance policies, standardize treatment standards, pay wages to the insured on time and in full, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of maternity insurance for employees. It is necessary to intensify the reform of payment methods, pay medical expenses (reproductive medical expenses) such as prenatal examination, hospital delivery, family planning operation, etc. according to units and diseases, and directly settle accounts with designated medical institutions, guide designated medical institutions to standardize medical service behavior, effectively control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses, and effectively reduce the burden of reproductive medical expenses of insured persons.

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