How to solve the problem of endowment insurance gap

In recent years, the problem of pension gap in China has aroused widespread concern and heated discussion from all walks of life. There has been a long-standing discussion about the difficulties of providing for the aged in China. Now the situation is more severe and the reform is more urgent. Based on the analysis of China's pension gap, this paper points out that the current pension gap in China mainly comes from two factors: the aging population and the transition cost, and makes an international comparison with the basic situation of China's pension insurance, and puts forward some policy suggestions on how to deepen the reform from four aspects: the payment ratio, the single pillar, the allocation of state-owned assets and the retirement age.

Pension in China: Not a long-term problem, but a short-term problem.

"Aging" is the present continuous tense. According to the statistics of China Dongqing Bureau, the working-age population in China (15 ~ 64 years old) has reached its peak in 20 13 years. In 20 15 years, the dependency ratio of the elderly (over 65 years old) in China is 13%. After that, the speed of population aging and the dependency ratio of the elderly will increase sharply. In 2035, the dependency ratio of the elderly in China will reach 33%, exceeding the current level in Western Europe, and in 2040, the dependency ratio of the elderly in China will surpass that in the United States. Considering China's current employment and retirement age, in 2050, China's retirement age population will account for 103% of the working-age population, while the current proportion is 35%. That is to say, at present, three working-age people support 1 retirement-age elderly, which will be transformed into 1 working-age population support 1 retirement-age elderly. The situation is very serious.

Only from the comparison of the median age of the population, China's current median age of 37 has surpassed that of developing countries and middle-and high-income countries, and is close to developed countries and high-income countries, but from the perspective of per capita income, it is far from reaching this level. At present, the median age of China's population is much higher than that of Brazil and India, both developing countries and BRIC countries. According to United Nations data, the median age of China population in 20 15 is 37 years old. In 2035, the median age of China's population will rise to 46, equivalent to the oldest countries such as Japan, Germany and Italy. In 2050, this number will reach 50 years old.

The difficulty of providing for the aged in China is a "near worry". After years of reform, China's social security system has indeed made great progress. The balance of the basic old-age insurance fund has increased year by year, with an average annual increase of 28.5% since 1989, and the number of participants has also increased rapidly. The coverage rate of basic old-age insurance increased from 5% in 1989 to 62% in 20 14. This year's "the State Council's Decision on the Reform of the Pension Insurance System for Staff in Government Offices and Institutions" and "Measures for the Investment Management of the Basic Pension Insurance Fund" have been promulgated one after another, marking a major breakthrough in China's dual-track pension reform and investment operation reform. However, by the end of 20 14, the accumulated balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban employees was 3 18 trillion yuan, and the accumulated balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban and rural residents was 0.38 trillion yuan, totaling about 3.56 trillion yuan, accounting for only 5.6% of the GDP in 20 14. Regardless of financial subsidies, the basic old-age insurance for urban workers in 20 14 years has been unable to meet the expenditure, and the income and expenditure gap is13 billion yuan. The budget of the national social insurance fund shows that the income and expenditure gap will be expanded to 300 billion yuan in 20 15 years. How does this balance of payments and income and expenditure situation cope with the aging population and the history of unpaid reforms in the past?