Autobots buy Daimler? Tesla's story continues.

Whether Tesla falls off the altar or achieves a "trillion myth", it may be a key step to acquire a car company of Daimler's level.

Text/Autobots Scroll

65438+In early February, Musk expressed his intention to acquire a traditional car company. When he said this publicly, he definitely meant to ask for directions. Let's see how the capital market reacts.

Sure enough, the company's share price rose for four days on February 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th of 12, and closed at $64 1.76 on the 7th, with a market value of over $600 billion, and reached $649.88 on the 8th, with a market value of $6160.22 million.

US$ 600 billion is converted into RMB 4 trillion, while China's GDP in 20 19 is nearly 100 trillion. Some people calculate that the combined market value of hundreds of listed companies in Guangzhou is not as good as Tesla. In the automobile industry, Tesla is the only one, and its market value is almost the sum of 23,456. The second Toyota is probably 1/3, and the third Volkswagen Group is only 1/7. In other words, in the capital dimension, it is feasible to acquire any car enterprise group.

Why Daimler?

The question is which car company will be acquired? In fact, it is not difficult to guess that institutions generally believe that Daimler is the most likely.

First of all, Musk is different from other investors. For him, a board seat and voting rights are not enough. For the sake of efficiency, he definitely wants the dominant position, which means that if he buys it, he may have to pocket more than half of the other party's shares.

Second, if Tesla buys a traditional car company, it will undoubtedly choose a luxury brand. The only thing you can see is BBA.

It is worth mentioning that in 2020, Tesla suffered a fiasco in the European market, and its market share suddenly dropped from over 30% to 13%. European consumers are more willing to support local brands. Tesla wants to make a comeback in the European market, and the acquisition of BBA is obviously a good move.

These three BBA companies have different ownership structures, so they can't buy anyone at will. Audi brand assets are in the listed company Volkswagen Group, so it will be more troublesome to buy them separately. BMW Group is a family business. After Stephen Quant inherited the shares of his late mother, the Quant family took control of nearly 75% of the shares of BMW Group. He said that the family's position of maintaining shares is firm.

Daimler and Tesla have a long history. In 2008, when Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy, Daimler generously contributed to help Tesla tide over the difficulties in the form of equity capital injection. Unfortunately, this 10% Tesla share Daimler sold early, and if it is obtained today, its value is no less than Daimler itself.

From the perspective of ownership structure, Daimler's major shareholders are mostly institutional investors, and the shareholders with a large share are mainly pension funds and Wall Street investment banks. The belief of the organization is to make money, and it is definitely much easier to deal with them than with the quant family.

The focus is on cash flow

Although Musk's worth is the second in the world and Tesla's valuation is also high, Musk's ability to make blood, that is, to create cash flow, is very limited. Tesla's operating profit in the third quarter of 2020 was $809 million, and its net profit was $33 1 billion.

On the other hand, the traditional car group has low valuation and good cash flow. In the third quarter of 2020, Daimler's profit before interest and tax reached 3.07 billion euros, far exceeding the expectation of 265,438+400 million euros, and its cash flow even reached 565,438+400 million euros. From this perspective, Daimler is simply a "cash cow".

"Autobots" once said in an article introducing the "Star Chain Plan" that if the commercial operation of the "Star Chain Plan" is on the right track, the telecommunications business can bring considerable cash flow, which is exactly what Musk likes. Musk's life goal is to send 654.38+0 million people to Mars in his lifetime. NASA said the cost of going to Mars was $65.438+000 billion, but he said it was only $500,000. Even according to the latter calculation, the required funds are as high as 500 billion US dollars.

Today, Musk obviously considers using the valuation advantage in exchange for real cash flow, but if he wants to use the cash of the acquisition company, he definitely needs to gain absolute control. Another important issue is that Tesla, with a market value of up to $600 billion, is generally considered to be overdrawn in the future. How does this story continue and how does the current valuation support it? How about buying traditional car companies? Judging from the reaction of the stock market these days, it is obviously good! Musk should want to trade in the form of stock exchange. How can he get the consent of other shareholders? Nothing is better than the expectation of continuing to rise.

Uncertainty has increased dramatically.

Tesla is a "dimensionality reduction blow" to traditional car companies. China's three new car-making forces will also use the valuation advantage to help them solve the cash flow problem during this period. Following Weilai's plan to issue additional shares, Xpeng Motors and Li recently announced that they will issue additional shares.

However, it must also be noted that the new forces of building cars are different from Tesla, and they have been separated from technical graphics. Tesla's share price is still rising, but the new force of making cars has peaked. More importantly, American political circles do not want China's technology enterprises to continue to raise funds in the United States, and the introduction of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is a "blockbuster". As time goes by, the time window for financing "China Stock Exchange" in US dollars will become smaller and smaller.

From the perspective of building a car, Tesla needs to expand rapidly, not only to expand production capacity, but also to expand talents. Recruitment in the market is really inefficient. It is better to directly acquire a car enterprise group, and tens of thousands of autobots will be directly involved, once and for all.

In terms of industry integration, Daimler's century-old accumulation can also help Tesla. At the same time, we should also realize that in 20 19, Tesla's car sales were 367,000 and Daimler's was 3.34 million. In contrast, Tesla's annual output is not large. How to integrate and innovate by leaps and bounds is not easy. For example, chips in various industries around the world are in short supply, and so is the automobile industry. North and South Volkswagen stopped production due to insufficient supply of chips; Daimler also greatly dragged down the net profit of 20 19 because of the cost paid by the diesel scandal and the investment and production problems in electrification; The rapid development of the "new four modernizations" in the automobile industry has brought more and more uncontrollable to the automobile group. Therefore, Daimler's cash flow this year is not good, and it may not really feed back Tesla.

If Tesla can really acquire Daimler, it is not a fantasy that the market value will go straight to trillions of dollars. Musk will surpass Bezos to become the richest man in the world. It's not hard to imagine. After all, human beings like to follow heroes, and so does money. (Text/"Autobots" scrolling, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of Autobots, and the copyright belongs to Autobots.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.