Prospect analysis of real estate industry in 2023

The development trend of the real estate market in 2023 is as follows:

1, the national demand for housing is decreasing.

Affected by repeated epidemics and the sluggish real economy, many enterprises are now laying off staff and reducing salaries, and people have lowered their expectations for income growth. Many improved demand shelved the plan to buy a house and chose to deposit money in the bank to cope with sudden demand such as unemployment, epidemic and disease.

According to the data of the central bank in the fourth quarter of last year, the residents who tend to "save more" accounted for 6 1.8%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter; Residents inclined to "invest more" accounted for 15.5%, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. Ordinary people are reluctant to borrow money to buy a house, and it is the general trend that house prices will gradually return to a reasonable range in the future.

2. China has entered an aging society.

By the end of 2022, China's elderly population over 60 years old has reached 280 million, and more than 20 million people will join the ranks of the elderly population every year in the future. At the same time, there are fewer and fewer young people in China, with 654.38+75 million after 1990s and 654.38+45 million after 00.

In addition, since China liberalized the second child policy in 20 16, there have been 2017.58 million newborns, and only 9.58 million newborns in 2022. In other words, young people in the future cities can completely solve the housing problem by inheriting their parents' property, and there will be fewer and fewer houses just needed.

3. The pace of affordable housing construction has been accelerated.

Now all localities are promoting the construction of affordable housing. For example, Beijing stipulates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to build 400,000 sets of affordable rental housing, 60,000 sets of public rental housing and 60,000 sets of shared property housing. Subsequently, all localities also accelerated the construction of affordable housing.

What are the factors that affect real estate?

1, economic factors. The economic factors affecting real estate investment mainly include macroeconomic development, residents' savings and consumption level, fiscal revenue and expenditure and financial situation, and residents' income level. When the economy of a country or region is in a period of steady and rapid development, the demand for retail business centers, office buildings, houses, factories and various entertainment facilities will increase, and real estate investment will be more active.

2. Social factors. Social factors affecting real estate investment mainly include social order, urbanization level and population level. Social order includes the stability and security of local society and the sense of participation of local residents in local economic development. Urbanization refers to the concentration of population in cities, which leads to the increase of urban real estate demand, thus driving the increase of real estate investment.

3. Political and administrative factors. The political and administrative factors affecting real estate investment mainly include the political situation, the change of administrative subordination, urban development strategy, urban planning and so on. A country or region with stable political situation and sustained policies conducive to economic development will attract many domestic and foreign investors to invest in real estate and promote the development of the real estate industry.

4. Policy and legal factors. The policy factors that affect real estate investment are mainly land, real estate policy and real estate financial policy. First of all, with the deepening of China's land system and housing system reform, real estate has entered the market as a commodity, which ensures that real estate investment has high profits and will attract a lot of investment. Secondly, financial policy and loan policy have great influence on real estate investment.

The above contents are determined with reference to Caijing. com-Three Trends of the Property Market in 2023.