Looking back at 20 19: How many prospects are there for learning to drive?

When 20 19 has passed, we look back around, but feel a little bleak.

The global auto industry is facing recession, and too many auto workers will lose their jobs. Global auto giants are laying off employees on a large scale to cope with the transformation of the new four modernizations of automobiles.

The three giants of the German automobile industry have announced that the number of layoffs will reach about 25,000 in the future. The president of the German Automobile Industry Association also made the latest prediction to the outside world-the automobile industry is recognized as coming to a cold winter. In his view, the layoffs in the auto industry this year are just the beginning, that is to say, the layoffs in the German auto industry will be more serious next year.

Germany is not alone. According to data collected by Bloomberg, global automakers will lay off more than 80,000 people in the next few years. The United States, Japan and China, as the world's automobile powers, can't escape the impact of the automobile industry reform. At present, major auto manufacturers around the world, including Ford, General Motors, Honda, Land Rover, Nissan, Tesla, Volkswagen and the newly-emerging Weilai Automobile, all have layoffs.

Some analysts at Bloomberg believe that the huge investment in autonomous driving technology has seriously hit the profits of automakers. The current global market slowdown will continue to compress the profits and profit margins of automobile manufacturers, and cost saving has become one of the important means to alleviate the continuous erosion of profit margins.

Here are some auto companies that have announced layoffs and will announce layoffs soon.

The "wave of layoffs" may just be the beginning of this "subtraction"

Although many car companies, including Audi and Daimler, have said that the fundamental reason for layoffs is to save costs and invest in electrification, this is not the reason for employees' recognition.

On the 22nd of last month, a week before Audi announced its layoff plan, about 6.5438+0.5 million people protested in the streets of Stuttgart, where the global headquarters of Daimler Group, Porsche and Bosch, the main component supplier, are located. The main content of the protest is about layoffs and factory closures in Stuttgart, Germany.

The Palace Square, which has passed through the years, once again witnessed these people wearing red scarves to protest against enterprises. These seemingly silent German Metal Workers' Union IG? Metall members are now cocky, honking their horns and waving red flags, representing the interests of workers of Mercedes-Benz, Audi and many suppliers, and condemning many automakers for further cutting expenses under the pretext of transforming into electric vehicles.

IG in Baden-Wü rttemberg, Germany? Roman, head of Metall area of Daimler Group and worker representative of supervisory board? Zizesberg shouted in the crowd: "We will never accept it, because some leaders have not completed their tasks and our jobs have been taken away." In order to express their anger. However, a week later, it was proved that the anger of10.5 million people did not slow down the progress of layoffs in the automobile manufacturing industry.

In fact, this result has already been foreshadowed this fall. In September this year, 46,000 hourly workers of American General Motors took part in a 40-day strike, which lasted for the longest time in nearly half a century, and the famous "9. 16 American Auto Workers Strike" only saved one of the four factories that were about to close.

The German Automobile Management Center estimates that in the next few years, including the local business of foreign manufacturers, there will be about 6.5438+0.5 million jobs in Germany alone. "The fiercer the competition, the greater the resistance," said Gerhard Martes, president of the German Automobile Industry Association.

Affected by the turmoil in the two major automobile markets of the United States and China, the global automobile industry presents a mirror image of depression. According to statistics, in 20 18, the global sales volume of passenger cars dropped from 81800,000 in 20 17 to 80.6 million, which is the first decline since 2009.

Suddenly, such predictions are not uncommon. Itochu Research Institute of Japan pointed out that the model of barbaric expansion in the past decade has reached its limit, and the sales potential of emerging countries has been fully tapped. If we want to reverse sales now, we must make structural adjustment on the premise of reducing production capacity, instead of increasing it as before.

Adjustment of talent structure in automobile enterprises

Indeed, the transition to electrification is indeed a process of "burning money". A study by a consulting company called AlixPartners has shown that the global automobile industry will spend more than 255 billion yuan in the process of transforming to electrification. Wu Zeng, the new president of Audi China, revealed that in the next five years, Audi will invest 654.38+0.2 billion yuan to upgrade electrification in an all-round way. Such a huge capital investment, even for a strong enterprise like BBA, can only reduce the financial pressure through alliance and layoffs.

At the same time, the transformation of electrification has gradually reduced the demand for employees in traditional fuel engine and gearbox manufacturing, and the number of recognized positions on the assembly line has also decreased. Recently, an article entitled "Volkswagen Stop Recruiting Mechanical Graduates" has attracted attention on many platforms, with the main purpose that the sales performance of 20 19 automobile market is bleak, and in the critical period of enterprise transformation, the school recruitment that originally focused on mechanical graduates is no longer carried out for this major.

The picture is from Zhihu.

FAW-Volkswagen official website shows that campus recruitment and overseas recruitment only provide three product development positions, which are located in Changchun, Foshan and Chengdu respectively.

Image from FAW-Volkswagen official website

Among them, the product development positions in Changchun need graduates majoring in computer science and technology, information and communication engineering, electronic science and technology, software engineering, control science and engineering, design, fine arts and industrial design. In the recruitment of Foshan and Chengdu, three fine arts majors were deleted, and only computer majors were retained, among which there was no demand for related majors such as vehicles or machinery.

Coincidentally, although the phrase "BMW recruits but doesn't recruit auto majors" sounds a bit funny, in this year's BMW recruitment position list, auto majors are indeed bypassed. It seems that the students majoring in automobile are very sad to have a good Spring Festival this year.

"It's so sudden that I can't keep up with this change." A teacher in the Employment Office of Automobile College of Wuhan University of Technology said helplessly that they realized that the signs of automobile industry development had changed in 20 18, but they didn't expect this earth-shaking change to come so quickly. At the beginning, the hot job fair of the automobile company was gone, only the chicken feathers of the students majoring in automobile were left. The teacher said that now students can only think clearly about their future employment problems, one is to take the postgraduate entrance examination and the other is to take a double degree examination. "Now many students majoring in mechanical engineering have started to minor in computers." The teacher revealed that, indeed, traditional automobiles are transforming into this field.

With the entry of traditional automobile enterprises such as Volkswagen, Honda and BBA, as well as parts enterprises such as Bosch and Chinese mainland, the automation and electrification of the automobile industry have developed rapidly, and the demand for talents of automobile enterprises has gradually shifted from machinery to computer-related majors to avoid the waste of funds. From another point of view, machinery-related professionals are also laid off from the source. Although many students in related majors have condemned Volkswagen, just like the employees protesting in the streets of Stuttgart, this can't change the recruitment rules of FAW-Volkswagen, and it can't stop the electrification transformation of the automobile industry.

This year165438+1October 8, Mercedes-Benz's first domestic luxury pure electric SUV? EQC went on the market,165438+1On October 22nd, Tengshi X, a local new energy brand vehicle jointly built by Mercedes-Benz and BYD, went on the market. On the same day, Mercedes-Benz S-class pure electric luxury car concept car VISION? EQS debuted in China.

Globally, Kang, CEO of Daimler Group and Mercedes-Benz, announced on Daimler Capital Market Day that Mercedes-Benz will launch at least 20 new electric models by 2022, among which about 9% of Mercedes-Benz models will be electrified in 2020, and the data will reach 65,438+05% and 5438+0 in 2026.

This year165438+1October 29th, which lasted 507 days, the joint venture project between BMW and Great Wall Motor landed. Although Beam Motor is being made into cotton, both traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles are exported, which means Beam Motor is 100% pure electric vehicle manufacturer in China market, which further deepens BMW's electrification in China.

As one of the world's leading suppliers of electric vehicles, it is obvious that by 202 1, electric vehicle models will account for a quarter of all the cars sold by BMW Group in Europe, and in 2025, this number will rise to one third, and in 2030, this number will rise to one half.

This year165438+1October 18, Audi e-tron and Audi Q2L? E-tron's listing in Shenzhen marks the arrival of Audi's pure electric era. It is reported that in the future, FAW-Volkswagen Audi will continue to expand Audi's electrified product matrix on the basis of light hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric products to meet the needs of diversified users in China market. At the same time, FAW-Volkswagen Audi announced that by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles will exceed 30%.

The electrification process of BBA has been put on the agenda, and more and more car companies will enter this field, and the transformation will gradually enter a critical period. Does the increasing development of electrification mean that a new car-making enterprise like Weilai Automobile, which started with electric vehicles, will "stand up"?

Indeed, compared with the scene of the previous school recruitment, the scene of Weilai Automobile this year can be said to be overcrowded. A student at school said: "As a new car-making enterprise, what it lacks is the endorsement of traditional car talents." At this time, the new car-making enterprise is more like the final salvation for the students of traditional automobile engineering department. Of course, the premise of saving people is to save themselves. Just as we don't remember how many LOGO there were at the beginning, we didn't notice how many new car-making enterprises disappeared in the "bud" period every day.

label

The electrification transformation of automobile industry is an irreversible trend. Although many automobile companies, including BBA, have to face "grain shortage" when promoting automobile transformation, it is also the pressure that enterprises have to bear when undergoing industry transformation. From the layoffs of major enterprises to the school recruitment brochure of FAW-Volkswagen, we can see that the future automobile industry will start to subtract from the past "quantity" victory and achieve "quality" victory.

However, no one can tell whether the old employees who have been laid off for many years in the front line are miserable or have studied hard for four years. Car-related college students in Adventure Island are miserable. In the end, perhaps they only have one title: the promoters of the times who sacrificed their personal development to achieve industry change. At least you'll feel better?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.