The Politburo meeting once again mentioned that "housing is not speculation" revealed an important signal!

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting yesterday (April 19) to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the current economic work. The meeting demanded that the house be used for living, not for speculation, and a long-term regulation mechanism of "one city, one policy, one policy for the city, and the main responsibility of the city government" be implemented.

It is worth noting that the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on February 3, 2065438+2008+65438 did not mention the real estate content, but this time it once again mentioned the positioning of "housing and not speculating".

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Council Development Research Center recently conducted a special survey on the real estate market in the first quarter of 20 19. From the survey, the real estate market remained stable, residential sales declined steadily, house prices were basically stable, and market expectations tended to be rational. However, residential sales in some hot cities are picking up, and the land market is picking up, which needs high attention.

According to the requirements of monthly analysis, quarterly evaluation and annual assessment determined by the long-term mechanism scheme of real estate, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development gave an early warning to cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter of 20 19.

The results of property market regulation still need to be consolidated.

A few days ago, the data of March 2065438+2009 released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that house prices in 65 of 70 large and medium-sized cities rose month-on-month. The price index rose by 10.6% year-on-year, up for 42 months, up by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and up for 47 months. In view of the fact that this round of regulation has lasted for two and a half years and achieved certain results, this situation in the real estate market is worthy of attention.

58 Tongcheng and Anjuke recently released a summary report on the property market in the first quarter of 20 19, showing that in the first quarter of 20 19, the transaction volume of commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by about 30% year-on-year, and the transaction area in Beijing increased by more than 1 times. A number of hot cities continue to increase their talent policies, which has boosted the enthusiasm for finding a house in new first-tier cities such as Xi, Chongqing and Wuhan.

According to the analysis of the Economic Daily, there may be two reasons for the rebound in house prices in March.

First, since the end of last year, many places have fine-tuned the property market regulation policies under the principle of "policy by city and classified guidance". Some have cancelled the current measures to restrict purchases and sales, and some have loosened the policy of restricting loans and restrictions. These local adjustments, on the one hand, promoted the sales of the local property market and raised the sales price; On the other hand, it also released the signal that the policy may be loose, which affected social expectations.

Second, for some time, housing and house purchase have been regarded as an attractive preferential policy in the talent introduction work in some places. While introducing foreign talents at a lower threshold, it also expanded the housing demand to a certain extent, which in turn boosted the upward trend of housing prices. In addition, the relevant contents of the household registration system reform in the "Key Tasks of New Urbanization Construction in 20 19" recently released by the National Development and Reform Commission will also affect the expectations of the property market to a certain extent.

Every time Bian Xiao (micro-signal: nbdnews) noticed that the recovery of the property market has also triggered some chaos in real estate sales, such as driving up housing prices, increasing prices outside the price, and hoarding real estate. On April 10, Hefei Housing Security and Real Estate Administration issued an urgent notice to further standardize the sale of commercial housing, pointing out that it will strengthen the supervision of the real estate market and severely investigate and deal with illegal acts such as price gouging, price increase outside the price, housing hoarding, false propaganda and forced tying.

Why should we pay attention to and prevent the change of house price data in major cities in March from further intensifying? The reason is:

First, this will inevitably increase the deviation between the price and value of the real estate market, increase the ratio of house price to income, reduce the actual purchasing power of residents for housing, and affect the just-needed and improved demand;

Secondly, in some places, the time limit for the re-listing of new houses was cancelled, which inevitably opened the door for some investors to buy houses speculatively, thus shaking the position of "staying in houses without speculation", bringing bubbles to the real estate market while the price rose and increasing potential financial risks.

The Politburo meeting once again mentioned that "housing is not speculation"

Also worthy of attention is the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on April 19, which summarized the economic work in the first quarter and deployed the next economic policy. At the meeting, there were only 40 words about real estate, with two clauses: insisting on the orientation that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and implementing a long-term regulation mechanism of "one city, one policy, one policy for the city, and the main responsibility of the city government". There are not many words, but they contain rich information.

The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference held in 20 18 12 13 did not mention the content of real estate, and this time it mentioned the positioning of "living without speculation". This means that the central level has paid attention to the fluctuation of the property market in the first quarter.

According to media reports, Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that in the recent mild spring in some real estate markets and fluctuations in some areas, the Politburo meeting once again mentioned that housing is not speculation, which will be a blow to real estate speculators and conducive to market stability.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, also believes that the concept of housing and not speculating continues to be emphasized, especially in the first quarter of this year, the property market performed well, and it is expected to continue to rise in the second quarter. Emphasis on this point at this time is to prevent risks such as rising prices in the real estate market.

"The Politburo meeting also clarified the concept of a long-term control mechanism, which mainly includes one city and one policy, and the main responsibility of the city government due to the city's policy. It is expected that in the second quarter of this year, relevant cities will have relevant policies for one city and one policy, and the assessment of the main responsibility of local governments will also increase. " Yan Yuejin said.

There are actions from the local to the central.

In view of the latest changes in the property market, some places have also taken relevant measures recently.

Recently, Beijing's state-managed provident fund housing loan has adopted the same policy of "recognizing housing and recognizing loans" as the municipal managed provident fund; Changsha, Hunan stopped the preferential deed tax for the second suite, and it was levied at the rate of 4% from April 22. The relevant measures in the two places will undoubtedly help to curb investment in speculative housing purchases, better meet the just-needed needs, and will have a certain inhibitory effect on the rebound of property prices.

In addition to the introduction of new local regulatory measures, there are also central ministries and commissions to promote real estate regulation.

In order to implement the relevant requirements of the central government on real estate regulation and control, achieve the goal of policy-making and classified regulation according to the city, maintain a stable supply of residential land, guide market expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate land market, the Ministry of Natural Resources recently issued a notice requesting the formulation and implementation of the "five categories" regulation and control targets for residential land in 20 19.

The circular requires that cities, prefectures and counties (county-level cities) with a population of more than one million should effectively optimize the supply of residential land according to the digestion cycle of commodity housing inventory (as of March 20 19) and the actual situation of the local land market, implement differentiated control policies, and adjust and determine the "five categories" of residential land supply in 20 19 (significantly

Among them, if the digestion cycle exceeds 36 months, the land supply should be stopped; 36 ~1August, the land supply should be reduced appropriately; 18 ~1February to maintain the level of land supply; /kloc-from 0/2 to June, increase land supply; For less than 6 months, the land supply should be greatly increased and accelerated.

In addition, the "20 19 Key Tasks of New Urbanization Construction" was recently issued. Some public opinions believe that the loose settlement of mega-cities will lead to the concentration of population distribution and even lead to fluctuations in the real estate market.

In this regard, the People's Daily published an article entitled "Writing a Great Article on New Urbanization Construction (Commentators' Observation)" on June 5438+02, saying that no matter how the household registration system changes and how urbanization is promoted, the position that "houses are used for living, not for speculation" cannot be shaken, and it should always be regarded as the overall requirement for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The article says:

"Whether it is a mega-city with points settled or 69 big cities with restrictions on settlement, when decomposing and implementing the key tasks of urbanization, we must resolutely avoid investment speculators taking the opportunity to speculate on the premise of preventing the ups and downs of housing prices, and at the same time constantly refine the policies of restricting purchases, sales and prices to meet the rigid and improving needs."

Zhang Dawei believes that insisting on housing and not speculating will inevitably require the stability of the real estate market, and various policies restricting real estate investment are not expected to be loosened. There is no possibility of a big rise in the real estate market. Once again, it is clearly required not to speculate, which means that the national real estate regulation will still maintain the previous high temperature state. Although some cities have been fine-tuned recently, the basic principles as a whole will not change, and the central government's determination to curb the rise in housing prices will not change.