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Some time ago, Zhu Yanfeng, Chairman and Party Secretary of Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd. sent an open letter to employees of H Division, announcing that Dongfeng Group's brand-new high-end "H brand" officially entered the public's field of vision. "H" is the first letter of the English word "high-end" (meaning high-end), and its official name will be officially released in the third quarter of this year. As one of the most important layouts of Dongfeng Group in the next decade, is it possible for H brand, which focuses on brand-new, high-end and new energy, to succeed?

Before discussing this issue, we must first affirm that high-end brand is a trend that independent car companies have to face at present. Judging from the auto market in the past May, although the sales volume of independent brands increased by 0.4% to 5,765,438+0,000 vehicles, the market share was only 34.65,438+0%, down 2.2% year-on-year, the lowest in six years. This year1-May, the sales volume of independent brands was 2.264 million vehicles, down by 32.5%, and the market share was 37. 1%, down by 2.8% year-on-year. On the contrary, luxury brands are using the accumulation of brands for many years to accelerate the expansion of the market and sink into the second and third tier markets. It can be seen that the competitive pressure faced by independent brands is enormous.

On the other hand, after years of development, many independent brands have surpassed the level of second-line joint venture brands in product research and development, technology and quality, and have the strength to compete with first-line joint venture brands. In addition, the wave of electrification provides independent brands with the opportunity of "overtaking in corners", which is conducive to independent brands quickly occupying the commanding heights in the field of electric vehicles.

In view of the above situation, the management of Dongfeng Group believes that the launch of H brand is just the right time, and it is a strategic decision made by comprehensively considering the national new energy strategy, the rising trend of China brand, the strategy of Dongfeng Group, the market trend of high-end electric vehicles and consumer demand.

But I have to say that these trends and changes seen by the management are very accurate, but I am afraid I have missed the best time node.

First of all, from the big market environment, now is not the best opportunity. As we all know, the direction of the national new energy strategy is very clear, but the intensity of subsidies and other aspects has shrunk dramatically in the past two years. Although the new policy at the beginning of the year will extend the subsidy time to 2022, the refund is the general trend. In addition, even the business model of subsidizing mileage, car price and even "changing electricity" has been further clarified, which undoubtedly puts higher demands on the players present and the new players who are about to enter the market.

Look at the players present, none of them are easy. As the leader of China's new car manufacturing industry, Weilai is still struggling with huge losses, with a loss of166 million yuan, not to mention other similar enterprises. In terms of traditional car companies, BYD, the leader of new energy vehicles, saw its sales of new energy vehicles drop by nearly 50% year-on-year in May, which is also a capital word "miserable". At the same time, there are also foreign heavyweight players like Tesla. In March this year, the sales volume of Model3 in March has exceeded 10,000, and it broke 10,000 again in May, and the upward trend is very rapid. This drop of one liter also fully reflects the sinister nature of the current new energy market. For a new player like H Brand, there will be a lot of pressure after entering the arena.

Secondly, from the consumption trend, H brand is not dominant. A very important market premise of launching H brand is the national craze. The logical chain is a product that consumers are more patriotic, so H brand has a natural mass base, and consumers naturally want to buy H brand products. However, what this article wants to express here is that behind the current upsurge in China, it is not that consumers prefer domestic products, but that they have no national concept. In other words, in the minds of the post-90s or even post-00s, imported goods are just like domestic products, and neither is necessarily good or bad, so I will use whoever has good goods. It is obvious in the field of electric vehicles: Weilai's products are excellent and I am willing to pay the bill; Tesla can lead the trend, and I am willing to buy it. Tesla's "Slaughter List" tells us that China's new car-making forces can't be invincible with the help of national sentiment in the national tide.

Third, from the perspective of technical reserves, Dongfeng Group is lacking. Cutting into the high-end new energy market in one fell swoop is a very correct strategic choice for H brand. However, there are many preconditions for taking such a road, and the most important thing is the technical reserve. Automobile is a very complicated commodity. Without advanced technical reserve and application ability, it is difficult for an automobile brand to shape a high-end image.

Throughout the current global high-end automobile brands, there is no one who does not emphasize their own technological advantages. Tesla is a good example. The functions and concepts of various leading times fascinate consumers, so that even with various accidents and simple combinations, the market demand is still very strong. Wei Lai also adopted the same idea. At the beginning of the brand establishment, the development of electric supercar EP9 is to brush the sense of existence in various famous tracks and occasions, so as to establish a strong high-end impression. When the ES8 went on the market, Li Bin even talked about how good the materials, how advanced the technology, how rich the configuration and how thoughtful the service were ... Of course, in recent years, there have also been high-end brands-DS. As for the result, there is no need to say more.

So does Dongfeng Group have enough technical reserves to support H brand to go to the high-end market? At the end of September last year, Dongfeng's own brand Fengshen once organized a science and technology day. The explanations and objects at the event site fully demonstrated the technical research and development capabilities of Dongfeng Group. It can be said that in terms of new energy powertrain, autonomous driving and intelligent interaction between people and vehicles, which are directly related to the future products of H brand, the overall level is still in a state of catching up, and there is still a long way to go before leading.

In terms of autonomous driving, according to Dongfeng's current plan, the goal is to achieve independent leadership in 2020, industry leadership in 2023 and international leadership in 2025.

In terms of intelligent interaction between people and vehicles, WindLink system adopts Huawei Hi-car architecture, and mainstream ar navigation, facial recognition, gesture control and other functions will not be realized until five days later. X version is after 202 1 year at the earliest.

WindLink4.0 artificial intelligence vehicle system

As for the power system, according to the planning of Dongfeng Group, the second-generation battery system to be developed and applied in 200211will adopt the system of 81,and the energy density target is 170-2 10Wh/kg. As far as the research and development level of the battery itself is concerned, the energy density that the second generation products can achieve is 150- 170Wh/kg.

As can be seen from the above, among the three core technologies of new energy vehicles, Dongfeng Group is only in the mainstream in power batteries and three electric systems, but it has not yet reached the level of leading industries. As for autonomous driving, people and cars interact intelligently, not to mention.

Finally, from the perspective of resource accumulation, H brand can't be helped. After these years' efforts, Dongfeng Group has established joint ventures with PSA, Honda, Nissan, finidi, Kia, Renault and other enterprises, which is supposed to have rich international resources. However, none of these enterprises can walk in the forefront of the current wave of "new four modernizations" of automobiles-no matter whether it is three-electric system, intelligence or autonomous driving, these enterprises can't lead the trend, so they don't contribute much to the H brand. Far from helping, Dongfeng PSA's performance in China has plummeted, Dongfeng Renault's performance has ended, and Dongfeng Da Yue Kia is also struggling to support it. As the only company with high-end luxury genes, Dongfeng Yingfinidi is also facing great difficulties-not only its sales in China are worrying, but even Yingfinidi has changed its positioning to "Nissan Plus" and will no longer pretend to be a luxury brand in the future. This series of bad news has made the future of H brand worse.

Of course, in terms of resources, Dongfeng also has its own layout-in April this year, after becoming the second largest shareholder of Xiaokang, it increased its investment in Jin Kang New Energy, a subsidiary of Xiaokang's smart electric vehicles. Accordingly, Jin Kang New Energy's team in Silicon Valley and the next-generation battery and vehicle technologies it is developing can also be used by Dongfeng. After cooperation with Renault, Dongfeng Renault's original production line can also be directly used to produce H brand products, and there is no embarrassment of finding someone to do OEM work. Moreover, in today's situation, H brand is also recruiting on a large scale, hoping to attract outstanding talents in society.

For H brand, starting from scratch is not necessarily a bad thing, but in this way, it will make the original high starting point advantage disappear and the future development of H brand will be more difficult.

In the final analysis, the success of a brand ultimately depends on whether it can produce products that meet the needs of consumers at the right time. In such adversity, we have to launch new brands and challenge the market of high-end electric vehicles. In any case, we all need to praise the courage of Dongfeng. H brand has been planned and brewed for a long time. I believe that the management of Dongfeng has made many rounds of discussion and deduction, and must have formulated a set of detailed strategies and tactics. However, if the above problems are not clearly thought out, H brand will not be easy to succeed just because others have it, so I also want to have it.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.