What is the US 1979 financial crisis?

The credit crisis is no longer just a sub-prime mortgage problem, and the default rate of high-quality loans is also rising, posing a threat to the hard-hit property market and the weak economy. According to industry statistics and economists' data, with the decline of housing prices and the strict loan standards of banks, people with good credit records are increasingly defaulting on mortgage loans and auto loans, and credit card overdrafts appear.

Like subprime mortgages, many high-quality mortgages in recent years allow borrowers to reduce the down payment and charge higher interest rates a few years later. As long as house prices rise, these borrowers can refinance their loans or sell their houses to repay their mortgages. Now, however, due to falling house prices, lenders have taken austerity measures, and owners with good credit have begun to face the same economic pressure as owners with secondary credit.

According to the data of American Mortgage Bankers Association, at the end of September last year, nearly 4% of high-quality mortgages were unpaid or foreclosed in overdue loans. This is the highest proportion since 1998 began to track quality mortgages and subprime mortgages respectively. The total default rate and foreclosure rate of all kinds of mortgage loans are 7.3%, which is the highest level since 1979 began to track this data.

According to a survey released by the National Association of Industrial Economics (NABE) in March, 34% members believe that the subprime mortgage crisis is the biggest threat to the US economy in the next year or two. In a survey report released by the association last August, the proportion was only 18%, when terrorism and the Middle East conflict were considered as the biggest threats to the American economy.

It takes time for the crisis to end.

From a macro point of view, the main threat facing the American economy is the credit crunch triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, which has put the entire American financial market in trouble, disrupted the original lending relationship and raised the cost of credit. Personal consumption is the main driving force of American economy, so credit is called the lifeline of American economy.

The job market situation is also worthy of attention. In the first two months of this year, the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States decreased continuously, which is one of the signs that the American job market has entered a weak state, and it has also caused a major impact on investor confidence and led to violent turmoil in the financial market. The Federal Reserve predicts that the unemployment rate will rise to 5.3% this year, much higher than last year's 4.6%. This shows that the job market prospect in the United States is not optimistic.

The weakening of the growth of personal consumption expenditure is another unfavorable factor for the American economy. Last year, personal consumption expenditure in the United States also recorded the smallest increase since 2003. After deducting the inflation factor, personal consumption expenditure recorded zero growth for the second consecutive month from June 5438 to this year 10. This shows that personal consumption expenditure is in a cooling trend.

The subprime mortgage crisis has also caused great damage to American financial institutions. Takafumi Sato, the head of Japan's financial agency, pointed out recently that the losses related to subprime loans in the global financial industry have reached as high as $21500 million, of which the losses of American institutions account for 55%. JPMorgan Chase recently released a report saying that due to the deterioration of the US subprime mortgage crisis, Wall Street is facing the risk of "systematic margin recovery", and the banking industry may lose $325 billion in capital.

Facing the downside risks of the US economy, US Treasury Secretary Henry Henry Merritt Paulson said recently that the housing market continues to be the biggest risk to the economy, and it will take time to end the crisis. In his speech, Paulson acknowledged that the economic growth slowed down obviously, but at the same time he was optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of the economy. He said that the reasons for the economic slowdown are the slowdown in the housing market, the credit market crisis and high energy prices. He said that housing prices in some areas are no longer sustainable.

Economists believe that the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the Bush administration's fiscal stimulus plan of more than $654.38+050 billion are unlikely to play a positive role in reducing the huge debts on the shoulders of many Americans, because banks have tightened the loan standards and the government's expected tax rebate is not enough to pay most mortgage loans.

The subprime mortgage crisis has affected inflation, and China's influence will be fully manifested in the second half of the year.

With the slowdown of world economic growth and the increasing pressure of global inflation, economists believe that although the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China will be fully manifested in the second half of the year, the problems of inflation and economic structure in China cannot be ignored.

Guo Shikun, general manager of the research department of CCB, believes that in 2008, inflationary pressure is still very high and the price situation is grim, which may change from structural growth to obvious inflation.

Shen, chief economist of Citibank China, said that the impact of the US economic downturn on China will appear in the second half of the year, and the slowdown of domestic exports will curb inflation to some extent. However, by then, the biggest challenge facing the China government may be how to prevent the economic slowdown to some extent.

Regarding the economic prospect of China in 2008, Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, believes that the increasing inflation risk requires the government to adopt a more active austerity policy, but the fear of the US economic recession may make it difficult for it to implement a more active austerity policy. In this macro context, he believes that in order to offset the impact of the growth of foreign exchange reserves, the central bank needs to raise the deposit reserve ratio to at least 19% this year and rely more on credit control.