The Trend of China's Employment Policy

I. Analysis of the Employment Situation in the Third Quarter of 2020

(1) Section III Basic Employment Situation

In the third quarter, domestic epidemic prevention and control achieved strategic results. With the implementation of a series of policies and measures, the resumption of work and production has accelerated, the main economic indicators have rebounded, the labor market has shown a recovery trend, the unemployment rate has gradually dropped from the high point in the first quarter, the industrial shutdown has eased, and the employment situation has generally stabilized. However, enterprises in some industries, especially small and micro enterprises, have not yet got out of trouble. The employment problems of key groups such as college graduates and female personnel are outstanding, and the constraints of insufficient demand on enterprise production and employment expansion are increasingly apparent. Therefore, while affirming your achievements, you must never relax at all.

According to statistics, from June 5438 to August, there were 78 1 10,000 new jobs in cities and towns, accounting for 86.8% of the annual target of 9 million new jobs, which was about 3 percentage points lower than that in June, but 2.03 million fewer than that in the same period last year. In August, the urban unemployment rate was 5.6%, down 0. 1 percentage point from last month, down 0.6 percentage point from the highest point of 6.2% in February, but still at a high level compared with 5.2% in the same period last year. In August, the average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide were 46.8 hours, 2.5 hours more than that in April, exceeding the level of the same period last year. According to the online recruitment data of Zhaopin and 58 cities. The number of people who need to be recruited has increased significantly compared with the previous year. The dynamic monitoring of unemployment shows that in the third quarter, the continuous loss of jobs in enterprises decreased, and there was a positive stop-loss signal for existing workers. In August, the index of employees in manufacturing, non-manufacturing and service industries rebounded by 0. 1, 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, indicating that the employment boom has improved.

With the continuous release of the policy effects of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", the vitality of market players has been continuously enhanced, the economic recovery momentum has been stable, and some indicators are better than expected. It is estimated that the task of creating new jobs in cities and towns with more than 9 million people will be realized throughout the year, but there is still a big gap compared with the new jobs in the previous year. Generally speaking, the employment pressure should not be underestimated, the future employment development trend is not optimistic, and the problems and difficulties faced should not be underestimated. Be prepared early, make plans early, and respond in time. At the same time, we should also see the favorable opportunities in the recent employment development, such as the establishment of a dual-cycle development pattern, which makes stabilizing employment and increasing income a key link to promote consumption and expand demand, and makes the position and role of employment more prominent; Another example is the application of new technology in the epidemic, which has brought new forms of employment and new modes of online business, and has had a positive impact on employment; For another example, in addition to the traditional urban-rural dual structure, many regional development growth poles have been formed, and more employment centers and new spatial patterns of the labor market have been formed, and so on.

(2) Where are the three major problems?

In the third quarter and even in the future, three major problems have gradually emerged and must be paid attention to:

First, the employment risks brought about by the lack of industrial resumption and the difficult situation of small and micro enterprises. In the first half of the year, the COVID-19 epidemic had a direct impact on the whole industry, mainly interrupting the supply chain of personnel and logistics, resulting in the disorder of labor supply and demand. In the third quarter, affected by the epidemic, some industries have not resumed production, especially some service industries with intensive contact, such as recreation and sports, domestic nursing, fitness and beauty, cross-border tourism, hotel catering and other industries, which have been unable to operate normally for a long time due to the epidemic, resulting in large-scale unemployment of employees. The employees in these industries are mainly low-end laborers and female workers, and the industrial scale unemployment has caused great employment and life pressure to some workers. In addition, it is still difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises with weak pressure resistance to get out of the predicament. In August, the PMI of small enterprises continued to decline, reaching 47.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Market entities such as small and medium-sized enterprises and self-employed individuals are the main channels and basic sectors to absorb employment. However, since the epidemic, they have been hit the hardest and affected for a longer time, and many disciplines are facing the critical point of survival. In the survey, some places also reported that the recent closure of small shops and factories such as small and medium-sized enterprises and self-employed individuals has increased, making it difficult to solve or even aggravate the difficulties, which has brought great pressure to market marginal groups and flexible employees such as migrant workers and people with employment difficulties in cities and towns.

Second, college graduates, poor rural households and other groups are facing new employment pressures. This year, the supply of college graduates is large (reaching a new high of 8.74 million), and it is even more difficult because of the post contraction and recruitment delay caused by the epidemic. In August, the youth unemployment rate, mainly college graduates, increased significantly. The unemployment rate of people aged 20-24 with college education or above was 5.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The number of registered unemployed graduates leaving school has also increased significantly compared with last year. This year, the implementation time of college graduates' employment is at least three months later than in previous years, or even after the end of the year. Solving their employment problem is related to the whole society and the future, and greater efforts should be made. There are still many problems in rural labor employment, but we should pay special attention to the 27 million migrant workers, who are poor households with files and cards. They are in a weak position in the job market, and their employment is the most vulnerable under the influence of the epidemic. If they return to poverty, it will be difficult to achieve the sustainability of poverty alleviation.

Third, demand recovery lags behind production and supply, and insufficient demand will bring great pressure to subsequent employment. From June 5438 to August, industrial production increased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the service industry production index decreased by 3.6% year-on-year; Investment decreased by 0.3%, consumption decreased by 8.6% and exports decreased by 2.3%. By comparison, we can find that the recovery speed of demand is slower than that of production and supply. According to the manufacturing PMI index survey, more than 50% of the enterprises surveyed still list insufficient orders as the primary difficulty. The level of demand and economic growth are interactive: the decline of demand leads to the decline of economic growth, which in turn slows down the income growth in all aspects; The decline in income will reduce the consumption ability and confidence of residents and the investment ability and confidence of enterprises, and further reduce the consumption and investment demand. According to the data of the big data platform of the market subject of the Enterprise Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, the number of newly established industrial enterprises decreased for two consecutive months from July to August, with the growth rates of-1.38% and-12.29% respectively. The changes of the leading index and lagging index of DRC macroeconomic prosperity index show that the economic recovery is slowing down. It can be judged that the problems of insufficient demand and insufficient orders have obviously restricted the expectation of further expanding production. Restricted by insufficient market demand, the pace of further economic recovery began to slow down. The speed of economic recovery plays an important role in determining employment. Judging from the relationship between economic growth and new employment in cities and towns in recent years, the GDP growth rate of 1 percentage point contributed about 2.2 million jobs. According to this proportional relationship, the GDP growth rate is not less than 4% to complete the task of creating new jobs in cities and towns with more than 9 million people this year. We should also see that in 20 19, there were13.52 million new jobs in cities and towns, and the employment capacity in that year was almost saturated. If the number of new jobs in cities and towns reaches 9 million this year, there is a big gap with the number of new jobs in the previous year, and the resulting employment pressure cannot be underestimated. A bad employment situation and a low income level are not conducive to the expansion of consumption and aggravate the shortage of demand. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of fully dredging the domestic economic cycle, or from the perspective of promoting employment and increasing income, we must solve the outstanding contradiction of insufficient demand as soon as possible.

Second, do a good job in stabilizing employment and ensuring employment.

At present, doing a good job in employment throughout the year is in a critical period, and it is also a critical stage to fully complete the objectives of the 13 th Five-Year Plan and lay the foundation for the formulation and implementation of the 14 th Five-Year Plan. Main working ideas: First, solidly promote the in-depth implementation and joint management of various policies to stabilize employment and ensure employment since the outbreak of the epidemic, and strive to achieve greater results. Second, on the basis of adhering to the GSP policy, we should pay more attention to the formulation and implementation of the policy of "special regions, special industries and special groups". Third, while strengthening the public employment policy, we should pay more attention to stimulating market vitality. Fourth, while trying to solve the current outstanding problems, we should pay more attention to filling shortcomings, improve institutional mechanisms, and prevent emergencies such as large-scale unemployment.

(1) Adhere to the employment priority policy and enrich and improve the policy toolbox.

First, in view of the contradictions in the implementation of resuming production and stabilizing employment after the outbreak this year, the policy toolbox is not perfect and the macro policies are not coordinated, we will further strengthen the ideological understanding of governments at all levels to ensure employment, people's livelihood, employment and economic stability, adhere to employment priority, actively pave the way for people's employment and entrepreneurship, and correctly handle the contradictions between social and economic governance and employment.

The second is to enrich and improve policy tools and strengthen macro-policy coordination. Further promote the implementation of the "employment priority" policy as a macro policy at the work level, enrich and improve the policy toolkit for stabilizing employment and ensuring employment, make the policy focus on combining the prevention and control of large-scale unemployment risks with solving new contradictions in employment structure, and continue to implement existing emergency policies by establishing long-term policies and long-term mechanisms.

The third is to establish a financial input evaluation mechanism to improve the financial security capacity. Explore the establishment of an evaluation mechanism for the effectiveness of financial investment in major projects to promote employment and carry out pilot projects. The employment indicators of key groups will be incorporated into the performance evaluation, supervision and audit of 2 trillion new financial funds; Comprehensively balance the effects of long-term and short-term policies and the affordability of relevant funds, expand the sources of funds for stabilizing employment and ensuring employment, and expand the plate of policy funds. It is suggested that the central level should establish a reserve fund to deal with large-scale unemployment and increase the overall planning of funds; Modify the employment fund use method, or introduce temporary regulations, give local funds autonomy, and improve the flexibility, pertinence and effectiveness of fund use. Monetary policy should actively follow the pace and intensity of countercyclical adjustment of macro-policies, pay attention to preventing the short-term rapid expansion of government funds from crowding out other financing entities in the financial market, and ensure that various market entities have a relatively relaxed financing environment.

(B) efforts to expand domestic demand and smooth the domestic economic cycle.

First, in view of the impact of insufficient market demand on the actual income and expectations of enterprises and residents, the government should increase investment. When the market demand is insufficient and restricts economic growth, the income of enterprises and residents will decline or grow slowly. It is not easy to earn money and find a job. In this state, the behavior of enterprises and residents guided by the market will have obvious procyclical characteristics, that is, prudent investment and prudent consumption to avoid risks. Therefore, to expand demand under the background of insufficient demand, we must give full play to the countercyclical adjustment function of the government's macroeconomic policies, plan and implement major engineering projects from the overall situation and long-term consideration, and effectively boost investment in infrastructure, public services, ecological protection and so on. Through the strengthening of government investment, enterprises can increase orders. Through the increase of orders, enterprises can improve their operating income, operating rate, investment desire and ability, and promote the general increase of recruitment and salary increase, thus having a positive impact on increasing employment and residents' income, thus laying a better foundation for promoting consumption and expanding demand.

The second is to give full play to the countercyclical adjustment function of government macro-policies. By expanding the fiscal deficit and expanding the scale of national debt issuance, the government's ability to pay will be greatly improved. Increase investment in infrastructure, public services and ecological and environmental protection facilities to promote investment growth. In particular, we will closely combine tasks such as "two new ones and one heavy one" and filling shortcomings, and vigorously increase project reserves. It is necessary to combine the long-term goals of new industrialization, informationization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, formulate an overall long-term development plan, and guide the selection of projects to make up for the shortcomings of infrastructure and public services, and vigorously increase project reserves. At the same time, it is necessary to make overall arrangements for the use of relevant funds to prevent precipitation and effectively improve the actual effect of filling shortcomings and expanding domestic demand.

(3) Improve the pertinence of policies and intensify the "sinking" of policies.

First, in view of the fact that most small and micro enterprises are still in difficulties and do not enjoy relevant policy support, it is suggested to strengthen policy support for market entities such as small and micro enterprises and stabilize basic employment. Continue to increase the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies such as tax reduction and exemption, rent reduction and exemption, credit support, interest rate reduction and interest subsidy for small and medium-sized enterprises; Strengthen the implementation of the policy of helping enterprises to stabilize their posts, expand the benefits of small and micro enterprises, lower the threshold of return and increase the proportion of return; Measures to study how to implement SME policies in place, and package policy services through third parties such as platforms, entrepreneurial parks or human resources service institutions, and sink the existing policies and corresponding funds to small and micro enterprises, self-employed households and other market entities; Continue to deepen, especially in the first year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, continue to implement preferential policies such as "reduction and exemption" for small and medium-sized enterprises, and enhance confidence and expectations while making up for this year's losses.

Second, in view of the situation that some industries are affected by the epidemic, the resumption of work is delayed, the employment is seriously damaged, and the income is difficult to make up, it is suggested to study the policies and measures for enterprises in key industries to stabilize employment. For some industries seriously affected by the epidemic, while introducing industrial economic stimulus policies, we will increase the policy of stabilizing employment for industrial enterprises and expand the scope of policy benefits; Organize special activities to promote industrial employment and entrepreneurship, and help enterprises to stabilize their posts and return to work. Organize job-transfer training and entrepreneurship training for industrial unemployed people, give policy support and promote their employment and entrepreneurship.

The third is to gather strength and implement the work of promoting the stable employment of key groups. In view of the "depression" in the employment work in recent months, that is, the employment of college graduates is difficult and the risk of poor laborers returning to poverty is high, special classes and special studies are carried out to make the deployed action measures "stick to the end", and special personnel are appointed to implement them, and an effective feedback and inspection mechanism is established. Special policies can be implemented when necessary. At the same time, it is necessary to prevent college students from falsifying data in order to achieve task standards in employment and employment poverty alleviation.

(4) Increase support for new employment and flexible employment to stimulate market vitality.

At present, there are obvious deficiencies in the labor security system that adapts to the new employment pattern and flexible employment development. On the one hand, the application of the current labor law is based on the premise of confirming the labor relationship between enterprises and workers, that is, signing a labor contract, but it is difficult to confirm the labor relationship in the new employment form, which leads to problems such as difficult labor disputes and difficult maintenance of labor rights and interests. On the other hand, workers in new forms of employment have no industrial injury insurance and unemployment insurance, and the proportion of employees participating in basic old-age insurance and basic medical insurance is very low, so it is difficult to resist occupational risks and they have great worries. In view of this, it is suggested that:

First, pay close attention to the formulation and implementation of labor standards suitable for platform employees.

Second, in accordance with the principle of equal rights and obligations, interests and responsibilities, we will promptly formulate measures for the management of industrial injury insurance that are suitable for the work characteristics of employees in new formats.

Third, tailor-made social insurance systems such as pension, medical care and unemployment to adapt to new forms of employment and provide convenient services.

The fourth is to study and formulate labor laws, dispute handling and supervision systems that adapt to new forms of employment.

The fifth is to form a new form of employment workers' trade union organization, conduct equal consultations with platform enterprises and other relevant parties, and change the inequality and imbalance between employers and employees.

(5) Strengthen the function of unemployment insurance and keep the bottom line of people's livelihood.

Faced with major unemployment risks, the unemployment insurance system urgently needs to play a greater role. At present, unemployment insurance has really played an active role in helping enterprises to stabilize their jobs, promote employment and support training, but there is a big shortcoming in ensuring the bottom line of life. The unemployment rate has greatly increased under the epidemic this year, and a large number of unemployed people are in urgent need of help. However, the number of people enjoying unemployment insurance has not increased but decreased. One of the reasons is that the vast majority of migrant workers have not participated in unemployment insurance. The epidemic once caused migrant workers to lose their jobs and main sources of income, and it was difficult to get unemployment insurance assistance and support because they were not insured; Second, new forms of employment and flexible employment lack unemployment insurance protection; Third, the current operation of unemployment insurance can not register the unemployed migrant workers who have already joined the insurance, but because they have returned home or moved to other areas, which makes it difficult for them to enjoy unemployment insurance benefits. In view of this, it is suggested that:

First, focus on migrant workers, private enterprises and their employees, new forms of employment and flexible employees, accelerate the expansion of unemployment insurance coverage, and implement special assistance for poor people who are not included in the scope of unemployment insurance.

The second is to give play to the function of unemployment insurance fund to prevent unemployment, do a good job in helping enterprises stabilize their jobs, increase support, encourage enterprises, training institutions and employees to carry out and participate in vocational skills training, and help workers improve their skills to meet the needs of transformation and upgrading.

The third is to strengthen the function of unemployment insurance to promote employment. People who voluntarily leave their jobs or start businesses in difficult enterprises are allowed to enjoy unemployment insurance benefits, and the standards of wage subsidies, social security subsidies and trainee subsidies are raised for enterprises that absorb unemployed people.

Fourth, using the Internet, big data and other technologies to improve the overall level of unemployment insurance, simplify unemployment registration procedures, improve operation methods, and provide convenient services to facilitate migrant workers and new forms of employment to receive treatment.

(six) do a good job in basic work, strengthen the grassroots and do a good job in statistics.

First, promote the burden reduction at the grassroots level and improve the public's employment service ability. During the epidemic period, problems such as weak grass-roots work and insufficient supply of public services in rural communities were highlighted. At present, there are still many problems in urban and rural communities, such as shortage of personnel, backward working methods and poor working results, which lead to low supply capacity of community public services and relatively backward development and construction of related community service industries, community service industry chains and supply chains. In view of this, it is necessary to enrich grassroots public employment service personnel, increase capital and other inputs, and study and improve the way for the government to purchase public employment services; Improve the professional level of grassroots employment services, establish public employment service professional teams in counties, cities, streets and towns, classify different types of unemployed people, and implement "one-on-one" service measures to help unemployed people enter the labor market as soon as possible and achieve employment; Further make overall arrangements for all the work, reduce unnecessary inspections and meetings, effectively promote the burden reduction at the grassroots level, and let grassroots personnel have more time and energy to do a good job in service.

The second is to strengthen the scientific monitoring and analysis of the job market to provide support for the implementation of "stable employment". We should continue to release and deeply interpret all kinds of data such as labor force survey in time, and improve our understanding of the scientific and important analysis of China's employment market situation. Based on the labor force survey data published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the big data of the Internet recruitment platform, we will release and scientifically interpret the relevant data of employment and unemployment to the society in time, and carry out monitoring and analysis of the employment market accordingly (focusing on the three major problems faced by China's employment market: total employment, employment structure and employment quality). On the one hand, it provides support for governments at all levels to scientifically formulate targeted employment promotion policies, on the other hand, it avoids some people's speculation and misinterpretation of changes in employment and unemployment levels due to information asymmetry and lack of professional knowledge. At the same time, we should also pay special attention to the analysis of statistical data, such as the lack of returning migrant workers in the unemployment rate survey; For example, when new jobs are created in cities and towns, how to deal with the problem of "drawing drawers" in the number of people entering and leaving in the past year. This is not only related to the objectivity and accuracy of the data itself, but also related to the judgment of the real situation. Therefore, the more critical it is at the end of the year, the more it is necessary to prevent statistical distortion, so as to avoid misjudgment and delay the overall situation.