Please make an in-depth analysis of the future development situation and some problems of Tencent 360 after the war.

The 3Q war seems to be in the "halftime" stage. Due to the intervention of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Public Security, QQ and 360 have been able to run at the same time. The intensity of the war is invincible, the battle has not been carried out to the end, and the "record" has long been broken. No matter how the war goes, the momentum and attractions will not be more exciting than before.

Baidu, Kingsoft, Maxthon, Koniu and sogou (it is doubtful whether this company will join) jointly announced that they are no longer compatible with 360 series software, which is definitely a big move and news with strong reaction at ordinary times. However, after the upgrade of the 3Q War, Tencent asked users to choose one, and the statements of the five alliances were rarely taken seriously. For the public, there is no need to argue any more. At this time, the five families came out to support Tencent, but only a few more moral losers, which had no practical effect on the psychological influence and choice orientation of netizens. Incompatibility is incompatibility. No matter how strong the alliance is, it will not be justified.

The Beijing Consumers Association issued a statement saying that the "3Q War" has hurt consumers, and the interests of consumers cannot be ignored in enterprise disputes. This statement is probably the closest to the official meaning. After official mediation (3Q temporary compatibility), will one party break the contract and break the balance to cancel compatibility recently? It is unlikely that "the two are compatible on the user's computer", which may serve as the premise or basic framework for negotiation or adjudication.

In fact, after Tencent announced the choice of one, many users did not make the "only choice". At the same time, they keep the software of the opposing parties and wait for one of them to do "forced handling" again. Some users estimate that this matter will not produce an unnatural forced choice outcome. Continue to be compatible, and both sides should avoid fighting on the user's computer and hurting the fish in the pond, which is the wish of mainstream users.

QQ and 360 antivirus software are good products, which seize the opportunity and meet some important needs of users in a specific background. What the two sides spell out is confidence in the product. Regrettably, some decision makers overestimate the demand for products and underestimate the rights awareness and self-esteem of netizens. Tencent lost in the public opinion field, and the reason for Tencent's fiasco was not strength and publicity, but morality. No matter how eloquent you are, it is an established fact that "kidnapping users" hurts the feelings of the majority of netizens.

The shrinking market value and surging tide of abuse are proof of obvious defeat. At this point, we should understand a truth: mature people attach importance to rules and respect themselves, and will not hesitate in the face of forced choices; The mainstream netizens in China know that losing rules and principles actually loses the Italian and their own spirit and succumbs to coercion, which is a great loss-QQ is more important than free choice; No virtual good product can make people truly "inseparable". What is really inseparable is the spirit of independence and personal dignity.

360 did not win, and Tencent has not lost in their hands so far. Many people condemn and criticize Tencent, not because they are determined to support 360, but because they do not recognize Tencent's logic and are responsible for their own firmness and ideas.

Tencent has done enough, but the two sides have not said anything. There is still hope for reconciliation, and the conditions may still be under negotiation. Judging from the existing signs, Tencent has more initiative in possible negotiations.

In all fairness, both sides are at fault, and the biggest fault exposed by this incident is the regulator of the Internet industry. There are no statutory rules in an industry, and there is not even a "Jianghu street" that the underworld respects; Powerful enterprises in the industry have worked hard and even developed to the point where they dare to take the world by storm and hold users hostage ... all the reasons come from the "original mistakes" of the regulatory authorities. How to define cross-border fishing? What technical means or marketing means are unfair competition? They didn't even consider defining competitive behavior, so it's not surprising that there is such confusion.

Comment 360 always "holds high" the interests of netizens, and Tencent's demagoguery only emphasizes survival.

In China Internet, where users' interests have been absent for a long time, a company that constantly declares to protect users' interests is more intimate than a giant who calls on users to "risk their lives". Because of too much emphasis on the company's survival, both Ma's helpless expression and the tearful "Chen Qingbiao" of Tencent's public relations department can't help appearing very lame in public. No matter who will win the contest between 360 and QQ in court and on the desktop, when Zhou called on Tencent to "please listen to the voice of users and the anger of Internet entrepreneurs", 360 firmly grasped the interests of users and actually won the public relations war.

1, Tencent recently released data shows that 20 million users have installed 360 buttoned bodyguards. These users did not act as silent spectators in the dispute between 360 and QQ, but opposed QQ with practical actions and supported 360. Therefore, we use these 20 million users as the base to count the number of netizens who participated in the dispute between 360 and QQ.

2. According to the statistical average of the three major portals, among the millions of netizens who expressed their opinions, an average of 56% netizens said that when 360 conflicts with QQ, they will choose to uninstall QQ software.

According to Tencent's data, it has 6120,000 active users. According to Tencent's total market value of HK$ 326 billion, the market value contributed by each user is about HK$ 532.

4. according to? Number of uninstalled users × market value contributed by each user? Calculate, Tencent will lose HK$ 5.96 billion due to user unloading in this round of struggle.

Tencent was played by 360 this time? After the war, will you continue to do the security field to fight back against 360?

And 360? Will it launch "Chatter"?

And what impact has this war had on the Internet industry?

What impact has it had on the competition of Internet companies?

Who benefited from the battle of 3Q? Or didn't both benefit? But to benefit other companies?

Conjecture 1: Tencent won.

Tencent was fined administratively and apologized to users. 360 buttoned bodyguards were all recalled, and Tencent compensated for the losses and apologized; Tencent QQ Computer Manager will continue to develop and promote it.

Analysis: Tencent may suffer administrative fines for not giving users the right to choose and obstructing their freedom of communication, and apologize to the affected users. The fine for Tencent is only nine Niu Yi points even if it is hundreds of millions; In addition to the independent version that has been recalled at present, the buttoning bodyguard function of 360 security guards in its integration will also be recalled; Tencent continues to develop QQ computer housekeeper, and the two sides will continue to compete fiercely in the future, which means the conservative failure of 360. If 360 really has Ma Hua Teng's intention to enter IM, it will have failed when Tencent launched the second choice. So this result is a victory for Tencent.

Guess 2: 360 wins.

Tencent was fined administratively and apologized to users. 360 buttoned bodyguards were all recalled to compensate Tencent for its losses and apologize; Tencent QQ Computer Manager terminated the development and promotion, and QQ security module continued to be used.

Analysis: In addition to Tencent's fine and 360-button bodyguard recall, 360 compensation for Tencent's losses is only symbolic and can't move 360' s bones and muscles. Tencent gave up the development of QQ computer housekeeper, but only kept the development of QQ core security module, which means that 360 can continue to play a leading role in the personal network security market in the future without worrying about the threat of Tencent QQ computer housekeeper, which makes 360' s defense plan from QQ privacy protector successful.

Tencent's "two-choice-one war" launched on the evening of the 3rd put many users in a dilemma, and their right to free choice was violated to some extent. Therefore, Tencent may be subject to administrative fines and apologize to users. 360 buttoned bodyguards can close Tencent's advertisements, QQ members and QQ shows, which will affect Tencent's income. 360 can compensate Tencent for its losses and apologize to Tencent for alleged unfair competition, which can be resolved through coordination of relevant departments or handed over to the court.

The key factor that determines the success or failure of Tencent 360 in this war is whether Tencent continues to develop QQ computer housekeeper. Tencent continues to develop QQ computer housekeeper, and the two sides will continue to compete fiercely in the future, which means the conservative failure of 360. Tencent gave up the development of QQ computer housekeeper, but only kept the development of QQ core security module, which means that 360 can continue to play a leading role in the personal network security market in the future without worrying about the threat of Tencent QQ computer housekeeper, which makes 360' s defense plan from QQ privacy protector successful.

In addition, another proposition to be solved is, does 360 have plans to approach IM? If there is, and as Ma said, by importing QQ contacts, it has failed when Tencent launched the second option, because after 360 recalled the buttoned bodyguards, users have been unable to back up QQ contact data. Without this attack plan, the purpose of 360 this time is only for defense. As for the success of the defense, see the above analysis.

Key factor one: 360 defense or attack?

The real purpose of the 360 campaign is to stop Tencent from entering the security field, or to take the opportunity to enter Tencent's IM base camp, which is still worth pondering.

Before the conflict broke out between the two sides, Zhou, the chairman of 360, was always polite to Tencent and praised Tencent in many public occasions. Some insiders speculated that this behavior may be a measure taken by Zhou to prevent Tencent from entering the security market, but Zhou denied it.

In May this year, Zhou said in an interview with Netease Technology that 360 would not be a competitor of Tencent. He said that Tencent is an entertainment company with many businesses, but security should be left to professional manufacturers. In an exclusive interview, he also hinted: "I hope Tencent will increase its investment in security and solve security problems from the inside. We will solve them from the outside, so that' both internal and external repair' may really help users stop losing their numbers and being cheated by fishing."

In September, before the war finally broke out, the two sides had two close contacts in the security market. Tencent's computer housekeeper once robbed 40% of the shares from 360, but on the surface, they have been living in peace. Until September, after the QQ computer housekeeper was bundled and upgraded, 360 finally broke the silence and launched a "privacy protector" for a fierce counterattack.

Subsequently, the question of "Tencent scanning users' hard disks and invading privacy" flooded online and offline, occupying the headlines of public opinion, and the war of words between the two sides officially broke out. At the end of 10, Tencent and Baidu Jinshan and other manufacturers held a press conference, claiming that they would oppose 360 unfair competition. On the third day, 360 released the "buttoning bodyguard" software again, which can block advertisements and pop-ups, and quickly trigger user downloads and media enthusiasm.

On the surface, 360' s move is a defense and public relations counterattack against Tencent's invasion of its territory. However, in Tencent's view, the products launched step by step by 360 have other deep meanings. In an interview with reporters, Ma revealed that "buttoning bodyguards can never be developed in a short time". He even broke the news that one of the purposes of 360 attacking Tencent is to prepare to push his own IM software and directly import the data previously backed up by users into backup friends.

Zhou immediately denied that 360 intended to take the opportunity to push IM. He said, "360 will never push IM unless we have new ideas."

If 360 has the idea of backing up QQ user data to take the opportunity to enter IM, then when Tencent launched a choice war, 360' s offensive strategy failed. At present, the information disclosed by both parties is still uncertain whether 360 has the idea of entering IM, which is very important for judging who wins or loses 360 Tencent.

Key factor 2: how to define Tencent's behavior of forcing users to choose one?

165438+1On the evening of October 3, Tencent, which has a domestic IM market share of over 70%, banned computers with 360 security software from running QQ programs. This move caused a surprise inside and outside the industry. Defining Tencent's behavior of forcing users to choose between two will also become a key factor affecting the final outcome.

Some people think that Tencent is suspected of violating the Anti-Monopoly Law. A lawyer (blog) in Ting Yun said that once this behavior is put into practice, it is an improper use of its dominant position in the field of instant messaging and is suspected of abusing its dominant market position.

Xiong Minghua, CTO of Tencent, said in an interview with the media that the premise of this incident is that Tencent was "hijacked and injured", and the current choice is to do it as a last resort, just as self-defense. "Without this premise, Tencent did the same, so this statement (suspected of abusing market dominance) has some truth."

You Tingyun believes that monopolistic behavior damages not only competitors, but also users. This kind of behavior unfairly attaches the conditions for performing the contract, which infringes on consumers' fair trade rights, so it also violates the Consumer Protection Law.

In addition, even if Tencent's behavior is recognized as monopoly, many disputes have not been clarified since the implementation of the Anti-Monopoly Law due to many reasons in legislation and technology. Whether Tencent has a dominant market position and whether it has abused this position is also a very complicated issue in academic circles. In practice, it needs to be decided by the anti-monopoly agency of the State Council.

According to Caijing magazine, Internet regulators tend to split Tencent, and some experts have been informally consulting the industry. However, the anti-monopoly law enforcement agency is the State Administration for Industry and Commerce. It is still a very complicated problem to determine whether an enterprise's behavior violates the anti-monopoly law, especially for the emerging field of Internet.

Key factor 3: Where will the buttoned bodyguard go?

After Tencent announced that it would stop providing QQ services to 360 users, it also proposed three reconciliation conditions to 360, including that 360 must complete the uninstallation of buttoned bodyguards by all clients. 360 began to recall the independent software buttoned bodyguards the night Tencent introduced the replacement, but the new version of 360 Security Guard also included some functions of buttoned bodyguards. Whether the buttoned bodyguards can be completely recalled has also become a key node.

129 October,10,360 launched "buttoned bodyguard", which can enable filtering QQ chat window advertisements, QQ mini homepage advertisements, QQ announcement advertisements, news card advertisements in the lower right corner and mobile phone life panel advertisements, and block the "Tencent Search" plug-in. The above functions directly refer to Tencent's online advertising business. In addition, users can choose to prohibit the launch of "QQ Show" plug-ins, QQ member plug-ins, QQ pet plug-ins and magic expressions, and also prohibit the launch of "QQ Dance Academy" plug-ins, battle game platform plug-ins and "QQ Games", covering Tencent's online games and value-added business services.

According to Tencent's financial report for the first half of 20 10, projects that can be blocked or prohibited from starting by "buttoning bodyguards" can account for 85.55438+0% of its revenue, about 7.6 billion yuan.

Tencent called the software an "illegal plug-in", which seriously affected the security and service of QQ software. It was incompatible with QQ software and decided to stop running QQ software on the computer with Qihoo 360 software.

Although 360 quickly issued a statement denying the idea of "plug-in", it removed the download link from official website on the night of June 5438+1October 3, and began to recall the detained bodyguards on a large scale on June 5438+1October 4. After logging in, the user will receive a request from 360 to uninstall the buttoned bodyguard.

As of the day when the recall of the software was announced, its installation has reached 20 million.

Key factor four: QQ computer housekeeper-the neglected key chip

As the main force of Tencent's involvement in the field of security software, whether QQ computer housekeeper will stay or not will be the most critical factor to determine whether 360 can ultimately fail completely.

Tencent uses QQ computer housekeeper to intervene in the security field, which is a great threat to 360. During the Spring Festival of 20 10, Tencent's product "QQ Doctor" was upgraded to "QQ Computer Butler", which was quickly popularized in the market through the binding with QQ and directly competed with the security guards of Qihoo 360. According to media reports, Liu Jun, vice president of 360 Company, said that the share of QQ computer housekeeper in related fields has reached about 40%.

Ma once said frankly: "Another time was in September, when Zhou saw us as computer butlers, he felt very threatened."

And this product may also become a key chip in the game between the two sides.

If QQ computer housekeeper can continue to develop after this campaign, it will undoubtedly continue to nibble at 360' s market share step by step with the help of Tencent's client advantage, and 360 will lose its first-Mover advantage a little. If QQ Computer Manager is terminated after the game, the boundary between Chu River and Han River in the security field will be clearly defined, and 360 will have the opportunity to further strengthen its strength and challenge Tencent's dominance in the Internet.

Recently, a large number of anti-virus security posts have appeared on Tencent's official recruitment page, including anti-virus software technology developers and product managers, with a total of 10. ? According to industry analysis, follow Dr. QQ's built-in Norton worker? With such a large-scale recruitment, Tencent intends to enter the anti-virus field on 20 10. Tencent has always had a comprehensive business layout in Internet products, but it has always been a shortcoming in the security field. Recently, Bian Xiao happened to find on Tencent's recruitment website () that Tencent is currently recruiting security-related positions. The total number of positions has been exposed. Tencent's strategy of aggressively entering the security field.

Tencent's security positions are generally divided into two categories: anti-virus software and security assistant tool QQ doctor. Search on Tencent's recruitment website? TR (Tencent research institute? Research related positions), the results show that Tencent Research Institute is currently recruiting technology developers and product leaders.

Its? The positions of anti-virus software technology developers include anti-virus engine development, protection system development (file format, script, PE) and so on. , as shown in the figure below:

Description: anti-virus engine development (PE class) refers to the relationship with? Anti-virus engine technology related to PE virus? Send work (PE virus refers to all viruses infected with PE file format files under Windows, and PE virus is a must for a person who is keen on virus technology).

Tencent recruited seven anti-virus software technology developers this time. What are the job responsibilities and responsibilities of the following recruitment pages of Tencent Research Institute? Is virus software technology developing closely? Related, it is not difficult to see that Tencent is really starting to exert its strength in the security field at this time:

There are 3 QQ doctors, including product manager 1 person and 2 client technology developers. Dr QQ in Tencent? Where is it in the product system? Tepid, the large-scale recruitment of Dr QQ, a security technology developer, obviously benefited from this trend:

The above positions are only openly recruited by Tencent, excluding confidential recruitment. According to Tencent's style, is that ok? It is speculated that the number of people secretly recruited by Tencent may exceed this part.

It is reported that Tencent Research Institute has more than 280 technicians, and the number of security technology developers recruited this time has reached 10. 3.6% of the total, this? Does not include undisclosed positions. Generally speaking, a few Tencent people can develop a very competitive product, and this time it has more than 10, which shows that this recruitment attaches importance to anti-virus technical personnel.

Pass? Through a brief analysis of Tencent's recent recruitment information of security technology developers, it shows that Tencent has begun to enter the anti-virus field. As a safety aid? Doctor QQ, it has been four years since it was launched in 2006, but at present, the war of free antivirus software is in full swing. The security industry is facing great changes. From a strategic point of view, security software, as the necessary software for installation, is playing an important role in Tencent's war? It plays an important role in the layout. Tencent, as the king of clients, should not give up this important place. This move recruits a large number of security technology talents, which indicates that Tencent is joining the war in the security field.

It is worth mentioning that not long ago, Dr. QQ was intercepted by a famous security assistant tool while patching the system. Tencent, which was invincible on the client side, was attacked for the first time. "potential threat" Tencent's efforts to recruit security technology developers at this time may be related to this "security incident". It seems that another fierce battle on the client side is coming.