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Judging from the regional financial strength, there are two points worthy of attention in the outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's development plan. First, there is no mention of building a financial center in the five strategic positioning of the Bay Area. The related goal of financial industry development is expressed as service industry, but the concept is very high, and it is proposed to build an international financial hub. Second, announce who is the leader of the Bay Area Finance.

On February 18, the long-awaited Outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan was officially released, marking a new stage for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, an important regional coordinated development strategy. Yesterday, the promotion meeting of the Outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan was held in Hong Kong, which explained the relevant strategies, advantages and development priorities of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao.

What does the landing of the planning outline mean for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in Greater Bay Area? Will the regional competition pattern in China change as a result? We have been paying close attention to the development of regional finance in China, and released the first Ranking of Regional Financial Power in China in June, 201/. From the perspective of regional financial power, there are two points worthy of attention and analysis in Bay Area planning.

0 1

Aspect 1: The five strategies of the Bay Area do not mention financial centers.

According to the strategic positioning mentioned in the planning outline, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should not only become an important support for the Belt and Road construction and a demonstration area for deep cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao, but also become a dynamic world-class urban agglomeration, an international scientific and technological innovation center with global influence and a high-quality living circle that is livable, suitable for business and suitable for travel.

There is no mention of financial center in the five strategic positioning. The related objectives of the development of the financial industry are mainly expressed in the third section of Chapter VI of the Outline, to build a modern industrial system with international competitiveness and accelerate the development of modern service industry.

For Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which has two stock exchanges, namely Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and three financial centers, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the position of finance in the economic system cannot be ignored, and the development of Greater Bay Area's financial industry is also in a leading position in the whole country and even in the world.

The research on "China Regional Financial Strength Ranking" released by New Fortune shows that the financial strength of 3 1 province in China is obviously unbalanced, which can be roughly divided into four echelons: Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing, where major financial centers and financial trading markets are located, are in the first echelon; The seven provinces and cities of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, Hubei and Fujian in the second echelon have certain strength, but there is a certain gap with the first echelon; The other 2 1 provinces account for more than half of China's territory, and their financial strength is at a low level. Throughout the list, the distribution of financial resources in China tends to be concentrated in leading financial centers, and the Matthew effect is prominent (Table 1).

Table 1: ranking of regional financial strength of new wealth China.

Source: new wealth

Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing, both in the first echelon, although their financial strength scores are very different, their respective emphases are different, and their advantages and disadvantages are also different. Guangdong finally surpassed Beijing and Shanghai with a total score of 7.39 and became the province with the strongest financial strength on the list.

Although Beijing is the national banking center, financial supervision and decision-making center, and has gathered the headquarters of most financial institutions and central enterprises, it has strong economic radiation and commercial influence, but it has not formed a complete financial market system; The characteristics of Shanghai financial center are the most obvious. It has obvious advantages in the added value of financial industry, the strength of financial institutions, financial markets and financial ecology, but it lags behind Beijing and Guangdong in terms of "capitalization degree" and "activity of private capital".

In terms of sub-items, among the six dimensions of this ranking, except the dimension of "financial development", Guangdong scored 5.63 lower than Shanghai's 8. 14 and Beijing's 7.49, and Guangdong ranked first in the five dimensions of macroeconomic strength, financial institution strength, financing ability, capitalization degree and private capital activity (Figure 1

Figure 1: Comparison of financial strength between Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing.

Source: new wealth

In terms of "financing capacity", the scale of social financing in Guangdong in 20 17 was 220,965,438+26 million yuan, which was far ahead of other provinces and cities in China, with a score of 6.46, and it had advantages in RMB loans, trust loans and stock market financing. Guangdong has two strong financial cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, and the existence of Shenzhen Stock Exchange gives it a comparative advantage in the construction of multi-level capital markets.

In the dimension of "strength of financial institutions", Guangdong scored the highest, 1 1.5. According to the data released by the central bank, there are 2 19 bank legal persons in Guangdong. According to the statistics of the places where the brokers are located, there are 27 brokers in Guangdong and 34 brokers in Public Offering of Fund, and the total assets of financial institutions in the province also rank first in 3 1 provinces and cities. Shenzhen and Guangzhou not only gather a number of well-known domestic financial institutions, but also Guangdong enjoys a unique spillover advantage adjacent to Hong Kong, an international financial center.

Judging from the degree of capitalization, Guangdong has the largest number of A-share listed companies. By the end of 20 17, there were 569 listed companies in Guangdong with a total market value of 10.73 trillion yuan. Capital market helps to create wealth. In the 20 18 New Fortune 500 Rich List, Guangdong has the largest number of rich people on the list, with one place contributing 1 13 rich people, and the total wealth of those on the list reaches 286 10 1 100 million yuan. At the same time, Guangdong is also a big GDP province. In the dimension of "macroeconomic strength", Guangdong ranks first in the country with a total GDP of 8,970.523 billion yuan in 20 17 years.

Then, why didn't Greater Bay Area's planning outline include building a financial center among the five strategic goals?

Don't you pay attention to the development of the financial industry? Which means it's not. According to the new wealth statistics, the word "finance" has been mentioned as many as 62 times in the planning outline, even higher than that of cities outside Hong Kong, and its importance is obvious (Table 2).

Table 2: Citation Frequency of Cities in Planning Outline

Moreover, in the third section of chapter 6 of the planning outline, "accelerating the development of modern service industry", the development direction of the financial industry is expounded in detail.

The first is to build an international financial center.

Hong Kong: Play a leading role in finance, consolidate and enhance its position as an international financial center, and build an investment and financing platform to serve the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Guangzhou: Support Guangzhou to improve the modern financial service system, build a regional private equity trading market, build a regional property rights and commodity trading center, and enhance the level of internationalization.

Shenzhen: Support Shenzhen to develop the capital market with Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the core according to regulations, and accelerate financial opening and innovation.

Macao: Support Macao to build a Sino-Portuguese financial service platform, establish an export credit insurance system, build it into a Portuguese-speaking RMB clearing center, give full play to the advantages of the headquarters of Sino-Portuguese funds in Macao, and undertake financial cooperation services between China and Portugal. Study and explore the construction of a demonstration zone for cross-border financial cooperation between Australia and Zhuhai.

The second is to vigorously develop the characteristic financial industry.

Hong Kong: Support Hong Kong to build a green financial center in Greater Bay Area and an internationally recognized green bond certification institution.

Guangzhou: Support Guangzhou to build a green financial reform and innovation pilot zone, and study and establish an innovative futures exchange with carbon emissions as the first variety.

Macao: Support Macao to develop special financial services such as leasing, explore the dislocation development with surrounding areas, and study the establishment of RMB-denominated securities market, green financial platform and Sino-Portuguese financial service platform in Macao.

Shenzhen: Support Shenzhen to build an experimental zone for insurance innovation and development, promote the interconnection of Shenzhen-Hong Kong financial markets and financial cooperation with Shenzhen-Australia characteristics, carry out pilot projects in technology and finance, and strengthen the construction of financial technology carriers.

The development goal of the financial industry and the financial development orientation of each city were explained in detail. Among them, especially the high goal of an international financial hub, it goes without saying that the position and role of finance in the development of the Bay Area cannot be ignored. Why don't the five development strategies of the Bay Area mention financial centers? From the general direction of China's economic development, this may be related to the economic transformation and upgrading, from high-speed growth to high-quality development.

Although the financial industry in the Bay Area is in an advantageous position, from the overall environment, it is still an important task for China's financial industry to guard against financial risks, enhance the ability of financial services to the real economy and stabilize leverage. The 20 17 national financial work conference raised the risk prevention and control to an unprecedented height, which is not unrelated to the "advanced" development of China's financial industry in some fields in the early years, that is, the liquidity is ahead of the demand of the real economy, the financial transactions are ahead of the development and self-circulation of the real economy, and the development of the financial market is ahead of the supervision and legal constraints.

On the list of China Regional Financial Power Ranking, a new wealth, there is a data indicator, namely "the proportion of financial insurance GDP to regional GDP" under "the development degree of financial industry". Except for Hunan and Jilin provinces, the added value of the other 29 provinces and cities all exceeded 5%. Among them, 1 1 provinces and cities scored higher than Guangdong, ranking first. There is no doubt whether the financial development in some areas is overheated and whether the development of local financial industry really serves local industries (Figure 2).

Figure 2: 1 1 The financial and insurance GDP of provinces and cities exceeds that of Guangdong.

Source: new wealth

Therefore, the financial industry needs to return to the origin of serving the real economy. Judging from Greater Bay Area's five strategic orientations-a vibrant world-class urban agglomeration, an international science and technology innovation center with global influence, an important support for the Belt and Road construction, a demonstration zone for deep cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao, and a quality life circle suitable for living, business and tourism-it is undoubtedly inseparable from the support of the financial industry. Among them, especially the construction of international science and technology innovation center will complement the development of financial industry.

Zheng Yongnian, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies of the National University of Singapore and chairman of the IPP Academic Committee of South China University of Technology, also mentioned in a recent media interview that "the competition in the future world is the competition of high-quality capital. The so-called high-quality capital is not only money, but also high technology and high technology content. As an international financial center, Hong Kong has advantages in service industry, science and technology, rule of law and system. Macao's service industry has a high standard; The Pearl River Delta has a complete industrial chain and a vast hinterland. If Greater Bay Area's system is put in place, all elements can flow freely, and there are technologies and markets, as well as capital and the rule of law, it will be very attractive to domestic and international high-quality capital. Wall Street will not give up, nor will Europe and Japan. "

Finance and economy are highly interrelated. Greater Bay Area's existing financial resources, such as capital and trading market, will undoubtedly provide breeding ground for scientific and technological enterprises, and the growth of scientific and technological enterprises is expected to bring more development opportunities to financial institutions. In addition, in today's world, technology and finance are leading the global economy and occupying the main part of the global value chain. Therefore, the pattern of global cities is also changing. Some established global centers are in decline, while others are in transition. New york, for example, is no longer just a financial center, but also a scientific and technological innovation center. The number of employees in the field of scientific and technological innovation and the growth rate of scientific and technological creative industries in new york have been greatly improved. In other words, the global city of the future will be both the center of finance and the center of technological innovation. It can be understood that although Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is not positioned as a "financial center", its emphasis on scientific and technological innovation is actually conducive to guiding the financial industry to become stronger and bigger by serving the real economy and realizing a virtuous circle.

In addition, it is worth noting that Jin Song, an analyst in strategy, commerce and retail industry of Dongxing Securities, proposed that the development of the three economic core areas of China in the future: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta should correspond to Tokyo Bay Area, new york Bay Area and San Francisco Bay Area respectively. This is in line with the orientation of scientific and technological innovation in the planning outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

And if the development of the Yangtze River Delta corresponds to the new york Bay Area, then the development of the financial industry should also be the meaning of the topic. In fact, China has a vast territory and uneven regional economic development, so it needs multiple financial centers to support the development of different regions. Especially with the integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta, China International Import Expo and the establishment of the science and technology innovation board, Shanghai is also expected to break through the shortcomings of innovation and consolidate its position as a national financial center. In the regional integration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta and the development of the Bohai Economic Circle, Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing, which are in the leading position, can give full play to their own advantages, explore the service innovation of the financial industry for the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, form a joint force to promote high-quality development, grow into a troika to promote the economic rise of China, and build a financial center system comparable to new york and London.

02

Aspect 2: Who is the financial leader of Greater Bay Area?

70% of the world's industrial capital and population are concentrated in the Bay Area, making it the most active area in global economic activities. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area includes two special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macao and nine cities of Guangdong Province, namely Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Huizhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing, with a total area of 56,000 square kilometers and a total population of about 70 million at the end of 20 17 (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Schematic diagram of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Among the cities in the region, Hong Kong, Guangdong and Shenzhen are in a leading position in financial development, and Hong Kong is an international financial center. However, Shenzhen, which has a stock exchange, should not be underestimated. In 20 18, Shenzhen surpassed Hong Kong in GDP and ranked fifth in Asia. So, who can become the financial leader in this region? Are other cities positioned as regional financial centers with different radiation levels and fields?

In the planning outline of the Bay Area, the positioning of four central cities is described, among which Hong Kong is the only one that mentions financial center: consolidating and upgrading its position as an international financial, shipping, trade and aviation hub, strengthening its position as a global offshore RMB business hub, an international asset management center and a risk management center, promoting logistics and professional services in the financial, commercial, high-end and high value-added directions, vigorously developing innovation and science and technology, cultivating emerging industries and building international law in the Asia-Pacific region.

This shows that Hong Kong's leading position in the Bay Area finance is obvious. This also matches its strength.

From the macro data, as an international financial center, Hong Kong's financial services industry has always been one of the most important economic pillars. 20 17.52% The proportion of financial and insurance industry in local GDP is 17.52%, which is higher than that of Shanghai 17.4%, even higher than that of Beijing, ranking first in the country. In 20 16, the financial industry in Hong Kong provided about 253 1000 jobs, accounting for 6.46% of the total working population in Hong Kong. Judging from the number of listed companies and the total market value, in 20 17, there were 2 16 listed companies registered in Hong Kong, with a total market value of 8,443.788 billion yuan. In the Global Financial Center Index (GFCI) published by Z/Yen Group in March 2065438+08, Hong Kong ranked third. The index has been updated every six months since it was first published in March 2007, and Hong Kong has been rated as the leading international financial center in Asia (Table 3).

Table 3: Comparison of financial strength between Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Macao (20 17 all statistics)

Take a closer look at its strength in the financial field. Hong Kong has a stable and flexible capital market, where money, commodities, capital, information and talents can flow freely, and continues to be a global leader in stock market value, IPO financing, asset management and banking. In addition, Hong Kong, as the world financial hub, is the largest RMB business center in the world. It also promotes the internationalization of RMB through Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect, and plays the role of cross-border financing. As the financial center of the Bay Area, its position is still difficult to replace.

However, for Guangzhou and Shenzhen, there are also opportunities for the development of financial industry. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have long been the third and fourth largest cities in China, of which Guangzhou is the gateway to South China, while Shenzhen is the most active city in private economy and scientific and technological innovation in China. Since the opening of 1990 Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Shenzhen has become one of the three major financial centers in China, with the ability to allocate national resources. Under the relaxed entrepreneurial atmosphere, it also gave birth to large-scale comprehensive giants such as Ping An and China Merchants. Today, Shenzhen has become the city with the largest number of new listed companies year after year. The added value of the financial industry and the employment scale of legal, accounting, consulting and other service personnel related to the financial industry are also second only to Beijing and Shanghai, ranking third in the country and becoming the largest gathering place of financial services in South China.

Under the planning of Greater Bay Area, Guangdong and Shenzhen, which have a deep financial background, can continue to grow and develop by exploring in-depth cooperation with Hong Kong, one of the strategic goals, in addition to relying on the common development of local scientific and technological innovation and intelligent manufacturing.

In the third section of the sixth chapter of the planning outline, "promoting the interconnection of financial markets in an orderly manner" is also an important goal, and detailed plans have been made in terms of the interconnection of funds and products, the establishment of institutions, and the coordination and communication mechanism of financial supervision. Interconnection of financial markets can not only enhance the core competitiveness of Bay Area finance, but also enable other financial institutions in the Bay Area and even the whole country to participate in the construction of Greater Bay Area and share the development dividend of Greater Bay Area.

In this regard, the other seven cities in the Bay Area should have more opportunities. The outline clearly proposes to support Zhuhai and other cities to give full play to their respective advantages and develop characteristic financial services. The economic development of cities in Guangdong is unbalanced. Take the nine cities of Guangdong in Greater Bay Area as an example. The GDP of Zhuhai, Zhaoqing and Jiangmen accounts for less than 4% of the total, while the GDP created by Shenzhen and Guangzhou accounts for 58% of the total, which contributes to the vast majority of economic growth. Unbalanced development is an important reason that hinders Guangdong from building a strong financial province, and it is also a difficult point for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to build.

The economic part of Guangdong Economic and Social Development Report (20 17) issued by Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences points out that the important reasons that hinder Guangdong from building a strong financial province are the unbalanced development of financial institutions, the unbalanced construction of two regional financial centers, and the unbalanced economic development of the Pearl River Delta and the eastern and western regions of Guangdong. In the dimension of "financial development" in the list of new wealth regions, Guangdong scored only 5.63 points, lagging behind Beijing and Shanghai, and even slightly lower than Jiangsu, the fourth place. Although in 20 17, the GDP of Guangdong's financial and insurance industry ranked first in the country with a total amount of 68,5301100 million yuan, the proportion of financial and insurance industry in the province's GDP was 7.64%, which was lower than that of Shanghai and Beijing, and also lower than the national level of 7.95%. It is the added value of the financial industry that makes little contribution to the regional economy, so that Guangdong's financial industry is facing a situation of "big but not strong".

However, the Outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan also points out that it is necessary to give full play to the radiation-driven role of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, coordinate the layout of productivity in the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta and the eastern and western regions of Guangdong, and drive the surrounding areas to accelerate development; Construct an important economic support belt with Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the leader and the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Belt as the hinterland, which will drive the development of Central South and Southwest China and radiate Southeast Asia and South Asia; Improve the transportation network from Greater Bay Area to other provinces in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region, deepen regional cooperation, develop "enclave economy" in an orderly manner, promote the flow of factors and industrial transfer in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region, and form an industrial cooperation system with gradient development, reasonable division of labor and complementary advantages.

Under the framework of Greater Bay Area's development plan, the interconnection of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao will undoubtedly contribute to the balanced development of the financial industry in the province, rewrite the situation that Guangdong's financial industry is "big but not strong", thus affecting the regional financial structure of China, and will help potential cities in the region to further enhance the internationalization and competitiveness of financial industry development, thus serving the goal of high-quality economic development in the Bay Area.

(article source: new wealth)