How much money do most Chinese people have?

How much money do most Chinese people have? This is a complex issue.

First we look at the total value and average value.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the "Statistical Bulletin of the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China in 2017" on February 28 this year, which showed that the total national income in 2017 was 82.5016 billion yuan, which was 82.5016 billion yuan compared with the previous year. An increase of 7.0. The per capita GDP in 2017 was 59,660 yuan, an increase of 6.3 over the previous year.

The total amount is amazing, but in fact the per capita amount is not much, less than 60,000 yuan.

Let’s look at the data in the “2017 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin”.

The chart below shows the "National Per Capita Disposable Income and Its Growth Rate from 2013 to 2017" in the communiqué. Although it has increased year by year, by the end of 2017, the per capita disposable income was only 25,974 yuan. The monthly average is a little over 2,000.

In order to strip out the impact of per capita, we divided the per capita disposable income of national residents into five groups throughout the year.

The per capita disposable income of the low-income group is 5,958 yuan;

The per capita disposable income of the lower-middle income group is 13,843 yuan;

The per capita disposable income of the middle-income group 22,495 yuan;

The per capita disposable income of the upper middle-income group is 34,547 yuan;

The per capita disposable income of the high-income group is 64,934 yuan.

Attention, it is the whole year. Therefore, dividing these values ??by 12, we can get the real disposable income. The highest group is only 5,411 yuan a month.

Therefore, the vast majority of the people in China are far less wealthy than the "vested interests" in first-tier cities think. The local bosses in third- and fourth-tier cities are not as rich as everyone thinks.

It is worth noting that the average monthly income of migrant workers nationwide in 2017 was 3,485 yuan, an increase of 6.4% from the previous year. When you are still lamenting about your monthly income of 30,000 yuan in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, you must know that the income of farmers in a year is no more than 3,485 yuan. Forty thousand yuan. It is still very difficult for them to support their children in college, and even after graduating from college, their children still struggle from scratch.

This is why many people watch "Kuaishou". It will feel like a world away. You have to know that the difference of 100,000 or even millions a year is an insurmountable gap in rural areas. These are the normal conditions in China.

In terms of expenditure, we can look at the picture below, which is also from the "2017 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin"

The national average clothing expenditure: 1,238 yuan, accounting for 6.8 of the total expenditure. Jordan basketball shoes are about 1,299 yuan. In other words, if you buy a pair of Jordans a year, you are already leading the country.

This does not include the so-called clothing consumption upgrade. , the demand for upgrading from adidas and Nike to niche brands or designer collaborations is not established across the country, which is why almost all startups that develop high-end clothing e-commerce platforms have died.

A mid-range massage in first-tier cities costs 300-800 yuan an hour, and if you do it 3-4 times a year, you are China’s high-spending group.

In general, domestic demand is not strong. . And there is no possibility of rapid growth.

After reading the communiqués of a large number of cities, I chose the 2017 communique of Bengbu, Anhui to explain.

Why Bengbu was chosen. ? Because it has typical significance across the country. It can represent a large number of third- and fourth-tier cities.

Bengbu City (including counties) is located in the north of Anhui Province, which is the dividing line between southern and northern cities. Both are in the north, and those in the south are all in the south.

Bengbu is not particularly wealthy, but it has a very developed railway system and many heavy industries, so the income of the employees in the railway system is considered stable and well-off.

The latest statistical population: at the end of 2017, the registered population was 3.6781 million, an increase of 23,600 over the previous year; the permanent population was 3.183 million, an increase of 7,000 over the previous year.

The "Gazette" shows that "the per capita disposable income of urban permanent residents throughout the year was 31,160 yuan, and the per capita disposable income of rural permanent residents was 13,769 yuan. The growth rate of both incomes ranked fourth in the province."?

Of course, relatively speaking, housing prices are relatively low.

Between 4,000-7,000 yuan per square meter. Based on per capita income, one person can buy about 6 square meters a year.

Compared with Shanghai, 6 square meters per capita (approximately 300,000) is definitely unaffordable.

According to the Shanghai Municipal Government Information Office, in 2017, according to a sample survey, the per capita disposable income of the city's residents was 58,988 yuan, the per capita disposable income of urban permanent residents was 62,596 yuan, and the per capita disposable income of rural permanent residents was 62,596 yuan. The disposable income is 27,825 yuan, which means that each urban person can buy one square meter between the middle and outer rings.

Of course, the simple per capita income reference is of limited significance, for example, it includes many old, weak, sick and disabled people. It's easy to be imprecise.

Then I checked another set of data. The Shanghai Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau released the 2018 Shanghai employee social insurance payment standards on March 29, 2018:

From April 1, 2018, the city’s 2018 employee social insurance payment base will be above, The lower limits were adjusted to 21,396 yuan and 4,279 yuan respectively.

We know that the social security payment base is calculated based on the average social salary of employees in the previous year. The maximum is three times the average salary of the previous year and the minimum is 0.6 times.

We can calculate the average salary of Shanghai employees in 2017, that is, the average social salary of employees in 2017: 21376/3=7132 yuan/month, so the average annual income of employees is 85684 yuan. This value excludes the elderly, the weak, the sick and the disabled. But looking at the family unit, one couple and one child. Calculate based on this value. Per capita income=85684*2/3=57056 yuan. It is close to the official per capita figure.

Beijing, what is the per capita income of the urban population? 57230 yuan.

What about Shenzhen? 52,938 yuan.

What about Hefei, the capital of Anhui Province? 31,950 yuan, which is actually a bit lower than Bengbu.

Here we can find that the urban per capita annual income in Bengbu is 31,160 yuan, while that in Shanghai is only 62,596 yuan. In other words, it is only 2 times, but the house price starts from 10-20 times. In other words, the asset appreciation of the population in my country's first-tier cities over the past decade has almost relied on real estate. Relatively speaking, the quality of life in Bengbu may be higher, but it is not easy, far from it.

Therefore, a conclusion that may not be accurate but is basically accurate is: excluding a small number of people who have become rich, the majority of the people are still only well-off, well-off, well-off.

Twenty years ago, most Chinese people lived within their means. But this phenomenon has completely changed.

A report released by Haitong Securities in November last year pointed out that if calculated based on the ratio of residents’ debt to GDP, the current leverage ratio of my country’s residents is still lower than the level of developed economies. As of September 2017, the leverage ratio of my country's residential sector has reached 54, which is a medium level among major economies. The leverage ratio of residents in developed economies such as the United States (79), the United Kingdom (88), the Eurozone (59), and Japan (58) all exceeds that of China. Switzerland, Australia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Canada even exceed 100

However, the level of my country’s residents’ leverage ratio is almost the highest among emerging economies. For example, the residents’ leverage ratio of Argentina is less than 10, that of India is only 11, that of Russia is 16, that of Mexico is 17, and that of Brazil is 22, all of which are far lower than China’s level. The debt level of our country's residents is higher than that of Germany, Austria, and Italy, and even close to the levels of Japan and France.

In the United States, the ratio of household debt to disposable income reached 130 before the real estate bubble burst in 2007. In Japan, it was also at a high of 120 in the early 1990s, but then crises broke out, and both are now back to around 100.

Haitong Securities also pointed out that if the disposable income of the residents' sector is taken into account, the debt level of my country's residents is close to the "dangerous" range. Therefore, to measure the solvency of the residential sector, we must also consider the issue of income distribution and see how much disposable income the residential sector receives.

Through the above, I think everyone will understand more clearly the current situation of most Chinese people.

1 The current seemingly prosperous life is based on years of savings and the absence of major disasters. If something goes wrong, twenty years of savings will be quickly wiped out.

2 The phenomenon of rich people gathering in first- and second-tier cities still only accounts for a small number of people in the country, and there are a large number of people in the first- and second-tier cities who are above food and clothing.

3 The dividend of the third and fourth tiers is not that there are piles of nouveau riche, but that compared to the high leverage of the first and second tiers, they are more secure and well-off families.

4 Chinese people’s wealth mainly depends on real estate. Assets do not mean that you have money to spend now, or even are deeply involved in loans.

To sum up,

This explains why "consumption upgrade" finally comes in the form of downgrade.

This also explains why NetEase Yanxuan is "so easy to use" but its size is only a fraction of Pinduoduo.

Explains why cash loans/car loans are so popular.