Analysis of geological environment situation under the new normal

With the gradual formation of the new normal of China's economic development, the geological environment situation will change differently from the past, the pressure of geological environment is close to the peak, and the carrying capacity of geological environment in more and more areas is close to or reaches the upper limit, which forces the upgrading of geological environment management and puts forward more new demands for geological environment investigation.

(1) The driving force of geological environment change slows down, and the pressure of geological environment approaches the peak.

With the transformation of China's economy from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, from incremental capacity expansion to incremental adjustment of stock optimization, from extensive growth of scale to intensive growth of quality and benefit, from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven, the driving forces of geological environment changes such as resource development, engineering construction, urbanization and agricultural production will change obviously, and the trend of high-speed growth will slow down.

1. The growth rate of demand for energy resources has slowed down, and the motivation for resource development has weakened.

Fig. 5-4 Prediction of total energy consumption and its composition in China in the future 10.

(According to [22])

In terms of energy, according to Wang's prediction, the growth rate of energy consumption in China will slow down from 8.4% in 200 1 ~ 20 10 to about 4.5% in 20 1 ~ 2020, and the total energy consumption in 2020 will be about 50× 108t standard coal. With the economic transformation and the adjustment of energy structure, the growth rate of coal consumption will slow down. After 2020, the demand for coal will gradually decline, oil will continue to grow, and natural gas and non-fossil energy will grow rapidly (Figure 5–4). With the continuous growth of infrastructure capital stock in various regions, the direct economic losses caused by a single geological disaster are bound to increase. It is predicted that the future climate warming trend in China is inevitable, the climate variability will increase, and extreme weather and climate events will increase [35]; After the Wenchuan earthquake, Chinese mainland may enter "a new active period of strong earthquakes similar to 1900 ~ 1955, with unclear episodic activities" [36]. The influence of climate change and seismic activity may aggravate the severe situation faced by geological disasters in China.

Figure 5-81949-Frequency of Major Geological Disasters in China in 2002

Figure 5-9 1990 to 20 14 Death toll and direct economic loss caused by geological disasters.

(3) The deepening of ecological civilization construction forced the upgrading of geological environment management.

Facing the severe ecological situation of resources and environment, the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China raised the ecological civilization to a new historical height and proposed to vigorously promote the construction of ecological civilization. Land space development, natural resources supervision, ecological protection red line delineation and other requirements, accelerate the refined management of geological environment.

1. Serve the optimization of land spatial development pattern and improve the cognitive level of regional geological environment.

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, regional development has shown new trends and new trends, and the connotation of regional development strategy has become richer: the "four major sectors" strategy has determined the overall deployment of China's regional coordinated development from the top; The main functional area strategy determines the spatial development pattern of China's territory; Cross-border economic zones such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Economic Belt have deepened the connotation of internal and external interconnection of the "four major sectors"; Important economic zones are the strategic focus of implementing the overall strategy of regional development and leading the national economic development. Optimizing the spatial development pattern of land and promoting the construction of ecological land put forward new requirements for geological environment work. In order to prepare the national spatial development planning service, it is required to strengthen the comprehensive investigation and mapping of water environment, and to prepare the single factor map and comprehensive map of geological environment in a targeted manner. In order to serve the development of water and soil resources, engineering construction and urban management, it is required to carry out a comprehensive investigation of hydraulic environment on a larger scale and establish a three-dimensional geological framework model. In order to prevent and control geological environmental problems and maintain environmental health services, it is required to strengthen the special investigation and study of geological environmental problems, and put forward countermeasures and solutions to prevent and control geological environmental problems. In order to serve the fine management of geological environment, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of geological environment database and information platform to realize the prediction and early warning of geological environment changes.

2. Serve the control of natural resources utilization and expand the traditional field of geological environment.

With the increasing interweaving of resources, environment and ecology, it is more and more urgent to implement comprehensive management of resources, environment and ecology in China. "Mountains, rivers, forests, fields and lakes are the same living body", and use control and ecological restoration must follow the laws of nature. Geological environment management involves not only groundwater environment, geological disasters and mine environment, but also geological resources such as land (soil), water and minerals, which requires geological environment work to break the traditional disciplinary boundaries and explore the near-surface sphere as a complete system. The comprehensive management of service resources, environment and ecology requires strengthening the coupling study of geological environment process with ecological and hydrological processes, and establishing a simulation model of key zones of the earth based on the three-dimensional geological framework with aquifer, vadose zone and soil as the main body, so as to provide a quantitative tool for solving the problem of resources, environment and ecology intertwined. Compared with conventional fossil energy, unconventional energy deposits such as shale gas and natural gas hydrate have complex geological structure, low resource abundance, great difficulty in mining, great environmental hidden dangers and risks in development and utilization, and high environmental supervision requirements; Compared with the bulk mineral resources, the strategic emerging industries such as Sanxi, Lithium and Cobalt have short mineral development history, high pollution risk and great difficulty in environmental supervision. In order to avoid the old road of pollution before treatment, geological environment work should be ahead of development and identify the environmental risks of unconventional energy and strategic emerging industries mineral development. With the transformation and upgrading of China's economic structure, some new trace inorganic or organic chemicals may enter the soil and groundwater through various channels. Geological environment work should identify and detect pollutants that cause environmental health in time, and investigate and monitor pathogenic pollutants such as organic pollutants, compounds and rare earth elements.

3. Serve the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy and actively participate in global geological environment governance.

With the in-depth development of economic globalization and regional integration, the economic development of all countries in the world has more and more influence on each other's resources, environment and ecology. The trend of environmental pollution shifting from resource consuming countries to resource producing countries has attracted more and more attention. From the perspective of mineral resources development, the per capita actual consumption of mineral resources in developed countries is much higher than that in BRICS countries, while the per capita exploitation of mineral resources in BRICS countries is greater than the per capita consumption. Therefore, some studies believe that developed countries have transferred some environmental pollution risks that should have been borne by their own countries by importing a large number of mineral resources (Figure 5–10) [37]. In the process of acquiring foreign mineral resources, China should try to avoid foreign people with ulterior motives from having similar views. One of the important goals of the "Belt and Road" strategy is to open China's access to foreign energy resources. In this process, China should fulfill its international obligations of environmental protection. China should not only participate in global energy resources governance, but also participate in global geological environment governance, assume the responsibility of a world power, share international public welfare affairs, and shape the image of a responsible big country. In order to participate in global geological environment governance, support and promote participation in global energy resources governance.

Figure 5- 10 Comparison of per capita mining and per capita actual consumption of mineral resources between developed countries and BRICS countries