Immigration increment

"There are many people looking at the house recently. It is hard to say whether the house price is rising or falling, but the transaction volume is really high." On August 17, Li Zhuo, an intermediary, has been shuttling through the old residential areas in Tianjin. Some customers signed a house in Heping District overnight, and some customers just bought a house in the outer suburb of Baodi District a while ago, and now they regret it.

The Tianjin property market, which has been tepid, seems to be changing, because the "college entrance examination immigrants" have been hit.

On August 16, Tianjin issued a new policy for college entrance examination registration. Since the registration of the general college entrance examination in 2022 (2021165438+1early October), the registration requirement for the college entrance examination in Tianjin has been adjusted from a single "household registration" to a "household registration status" requirement, and a three-year transitional policy has been implemented, and the registration threshold has suddenly increased.

As a well-known "college entrance examination immigrant" city, Tianjin once attracted parents from all over the country to settle here with a high admission rate. The children parachuted into the examination room before the exam and regarded Tianjin as a "springboard" for further study. Many developers even use this as a marketing gimmick, and some low-priced projects and settlement plates are born.

Now, this road is impassable. If you want to take the college entrance examination in Tianjin in the future, you must go to the local high school. Acts such as separation of nationality, suspension of student status, forgery of student status, and issuance of false proof of attendance will be emphatically verified. Those outer suburbs with the gimmicks of the college entrance examination will also lose some demand, and the property market will be even worse.

However, under the catalysis of the New Deal, the houses with better educational facilities are also quietly warming up. Experts in the industry believe that those who originally planned to buy a house for their children in high school must buy a house three years in advance after the New Deal. This part of the demand will be released in advance, and urban areas with high-quality educational resources will be more popular.

"College entrance examination immigrants" were resolutely banned.

After the New Deal, Li Zhuo didn't sleep well all night. He used to be a "drifting north" and came to Tianjin for his children to go to school. Originally, I wanted to settle down here and buy a house, so that my children have a greater chance to go to a prestigious school. The sudden New Deal disrupted his rhythm. All day, he has been asking about the transfer to Tianjin.

According to the requirements of the New Deal, if you want to register for the college entrance examination in Tianjin, this year's graduates must have a three-year student status in a high school in Tianjin and actually study. Previous graduates with diplomas from other provinces and high school equivalent candidates need to increase their graduation years and implement a three-year transition policy.

The policy of three-year transition period means: to take the college entrance examination in 2022, you must have a high school student status of 1 year and actually study; In the 2023 college entrance examination, there must be two years of high school and three years of practical study; The college entrance examination in 2024 and beyond must have a three-year high school student status and actually study. In other words, all students need to transfer to Tianjin as soon as possible.

The sudden New Deal has made "college entrance examination immigrants" a thing of the past in Tianjin.

"Before the New Deal, taking the college entrance examination in Tianjin only required Tianjin household registration. Without a Tianjin student status, you can take the college entrance examination as a social candidate. " Niu Xiaohui, a senior analyst at Tianjin Branch of the Central Finger Hospital, said that some people tried to defraud the Tianjin hukou by forging settlement materials, and then obtained the college entrance examination qualification by purchasing empty hukou.

Li Zhuo also said that many parents spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy houses in Tianjin, especially in the outer suburbs, to buy cheap small-sized houses first and then resell them after the college entrance examination. In order to cater to some needs, some developers use the gimmicks of the college entrance examination to launch ultra-low total price projects and settle down.

After that, this "convenience" will no longer exist. After seeing the new college entrance examination policy, Zhang Wei, who is in Hebei, also experienced a sharp increase in anxiety. Originally, she planned to educate her young children in Hebei and take exams in Tianjin in the future. Now either give up this road, or implement the student status before high school and study in the local area.

Being able to attract so many people "coveted" stems from Tianjin's high enrollment rate. The data shows that in 20021year, the undergraduate admission rate in Tianjin was 8 1.6%, which made the brother province of Hebei "far behind": in the same period, the number of people taking the college entrance examination in Hebei was 634,000, and the undergraduate admission rate was only 4 1%.

It's not that students in Hebei don't work hard, but that the competition is too fierce. Driven by various reasons, many parents want to take the "shortcut", and the phenomenon of college entrance examination immigration also arises. In Niu Xiaohui's view, the implementation of "household registration rectification" and "college entrance examination requirements" is of great significance for purifying Tianjin's settlement environment and maintaining educational equity.

The differentiation of the property market is more significant.

Under the New Deal, the "butterfly effect" of Tianjin property market is also happening quietly. "Tianjin has just changed its education policy. If you want to buy a house, you really need to reconsider the area. " Li Zhuo said that if the children are not old enough for the college entrance examination, they should not consider the suburbs now.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, said that some parents in the market did not intend to send their children to Tianjin for high school before taking the college entrance examination. These people generally live in non-school districts outside Tianjin. After the New Deal, this part of the housing demand will be reduced, which is not conducive to the property market in the surrounding areas of Tianjin.

However, this does not mean that all areas in Tianjin are like this. Xu Xiaole believes that the reduced housing demand in the peripheral areas may turn to the housing with better education facilities in the core areas, which will become the incremental demand in the later market. In addition, after the New Deal, you must buy a house three years in advance, and this part of the demand for buying a house will be released in advance.

"The enrollment rate of high schools in Tianjin is less than 50%, and high schools in urban areas can only take exams in urban areas, so a good junior high school is a safe choice." Li Zhuo thinks that Tianjin junior high school is also a school movie. For example, Nankai District is divided into north and south. Good schools are mostly in the north. It is best to come in the primary school stage, which will not affect the junior high school lottery.

In this way, the value of the central city of Tianjin is more prominent, and there are more opportunities to enjoy quality educational resources in the six districts of the city. "If you are in a hurry to transfer from other places, whether it is elementary school or junior high school, it is difficult to transfer to a good school. You have to inquire from official channels to see which school has a position. " He said.

It is reported that only one day after the introduction of the New Deal, the second-hand housing transactions in downtown Tianjin have quietly warmed up. Take a house in Shudeli, Heping District, Tianjin as an example. The housing area is only 18.24 square meters, and the total price is10.575 million yuan. But many people want to start, just to plan ahead for their children and settle down in local schools.

Li Zhuo just made a deal yesterday. "After the New Deal for College Entrance Examination came out, customers rushed over overnight to decide the house they had seen before. He didn't really buy it before. Now that the policy has come out, the child is going to school, and he wants to start quickly. Now many people who look at second-hand houses in the central area have this idea. "

It can also be seen from the performance of house prices. Tianjin's property market has been in a downturn for a long time, but in the past July, Tianjin's housing prices rarely turned red, and the price of new houses rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year. The price of second-hand houses rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0. 1% year-on-year. In the past two years, both new and second-hand houses have increased month-on-month.

In the transaction case, Li Zhuo also smelled the change. "In March this year, there were about 265,438+million houses of 30-40 square meters in midtown, and now it has risen to 2.2-2.3 million. Last year, the epidemic situation was even lower, about 6.5438+0.8 million. The trend of house prices needs more transactions to observe, but the current transaction volume is rising. "

In fact, it is still difficult to draw a conclusion about where the "depressed" Tianjin property market will go. After all, in the past 10 years, Tianjin's population growth even lost to Langfang and Shijiazhuang. According to the data of the seventh census, the permanent population of Tianjin in 2020 was1386,600, and only increased by 927,800 during the period of 10.

What is certain is that the differentiation of the property market will be more significant. "The Tianjin market is not very prosperous now, and the urban area is ok. Except for a few popular departments around the city, others have declined slightly. " A local real estate developer said that there were too many second-hand stocks in the market for many years, and the rise in house prices in July was actually driven by popular regions and sectors.

The same is true of the new housing market. The demand in the central city is in short supply, but the plates in the downtown area are being sold at a reduced price. The real estate with an average price of 20,000 can be given to the channel provider 1.7 million. There is also the land king won by real estate enterprises in 16. After the purchase restriction, the price plummeted. So far, it has not been recovered, and the price is only the same as the land price of that year.