How to evaluate the immigration reform in the United States at the beginning of 20 13?

Thank you for inviting me: as usual, don't be surprised to see it. The immigration policy of North America in the past two or three hundred years can focus on two essential issues: different social groups and politicians can simplify their views on immigration policy into these two aspects. For white racists, people who are worried about genocide, they oppose any non-white immigrants and political rights. For all ethnic groups, they support immigrants and all their rights and interests. As for trade unions, especially technical trade unions, they are opposed to immigrants and low-skilled workers, but they support giving rights to immigrants already in the United States. For enterprises, they need free workers, so they support free immigration, but they only care about giving immigrants economic rights (employment rights), not political rights, and even oppose (such as strikes). Because each group has considerable political influence, obviously, any immigration law should meet the needs of all groups, at least most of them, to a certain extent, so that they can feel at ease and feel that their demands have not been ignored. Even if the border of the United States is that long, it can't completely stop illegal immigration. It is better to control and guide them, raise the threshold in a targeted manner and introduce the immigrants they need. The immigration bill proposed by the Senate Eight Gang is a four-legged bench, and each leg is aimed at an essential problem: since the 1980s, the discussion on American immigration policy has focused on these points, and this time it is still on these points. Only half of them are slightly different from before, that is, high-tech immigrants, but this is not an accident, but a natural development of immigration policies. In fact, it was the United States that first introduced high-tech talents to immigrate. It was the mccarron-Walter Act in 1950s, which put forward the concept of priority and stipulated that 50% of immigrants should be given to useful talents with skills and proper education. This practice was later widely adopted by other western countries (such as Australia and Canada). Although the immigration law is biased towards family immigrants, immigrants soon came up with a way, and a large number of skilled immigrants appeared to promote relatives' immigration through naturalization of skilled immigrants. From 65438 to 0972, 86% of scientists and 90% of doctors immigrated from developing countries, which caused a huge brain drain in the country of origin. For example, in the 1970s, the Soviet Union began to expel Jews, and a large number of Jews went to Israel and the United States. Later, the Soviet Union felt it was a pity and asked the United States for training fees. Now the biggest brain drain is Iran, with 1.5-0.2 million people every year. After these people became naturalized, they brought a large number of relatives to emigrate, and the method of giving priority to foreigners to immigrate to their families failed, and a large number of so-called inferior ethnic groups they didn't like still poured in. At this time, it is a relatively better compromise to adjust the immigration policy and further tilt towards skilled immigrants. By 1990, skilled immigrants were separated from their families, each accounting for about half of the 700,000 immigrants (there were also 50,000 refugees). However, because spouses and children are not restricted in family migration, in fact, the proportion of family migration greatly exceeds that of skilled migration. This can be seen from the actual total number of nearly one million immigrants in the United States every year. It is no accident to increase skilled immigrants this time. However, we can see that from the basic direction, the new immigration bill is no different from the previous one, but the last immigration law was actually not successful. Because many things are easier said than done. Since the border inspection was strengthened in the late 1980s, the number of illegal immigrants arrested and repatriated has greatly increased. On the one hand, this shows that border inspection may have played a role, but at the same time, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States has increased greatly, indicating that many illegal immigrants have been arrested largely because of the large number of immigrants. At the same time, due to the strengthening of border inspections in California and Texas, a large number of illegal immigrants began to turn to Arizona and other places. The border here is mainly desert, which makes it more difficult for border patrols and illegal immigrants. As a result, Mexican gangs began to enter. In the past, illegal immigrants, because it was easy, mostly old people brought new people, and the one-time fee was 100-200 US dollars. Now the technology is high and the cost is high, reaching thousands of dollars. Gangs have long-term experience in illegally transporting large amounts of drugs across borders, and can deploy professional equipment to help illegal immigrants successfully cross the desert. At the same time, organized crime has also penetrated into local governments, and solved the residence and documents problems of illegal immigrants through bribery and other means. During the peak period, 4,000 illegal immigrants were brought in in Phoenix alone, and then transported from here to all parts of the United States. So light shielding is not enough. After all, illegal immigrants come to look for jobs. So naturally there is the employment qualification examination. But the problem is that it needs a powerful big brother who can easily find out everyone's private information and establish a national personal identity system. This is another contradiction for the United States, which emphasizes individual freedom, especially for the party with a large number of foreigners. As a result, the qualification examination is costly and time-consuming, and many employers either ignore it or simply don't hire suspicious personnel, resulting in employment discrimination. Another plan is to introduce the guest worker system, organize the introduction of temporary workers and migrant workers, and solve the labor shortage problem. If you can find a legal job through guest workers, of course, there is no need to risk smuggling. Obviously, this system should be negotiated with foreign governments, and under the pressure of domestic trade unions and other organizations, it is natural to give reasonable treatment to foreign workers, such as providing medical insurance and accommodation. However, the competitors of these guest workers are not others, but illegal immigrants themselves. The farm wants these migrant workers because they are cheap and have no political right to make trouble. If the cost of importing foreign workers is high and organizations cooperate with you, it is better to find illegal immigrants directly. Therefore, the guest worker system has never been established. The only easy thing is Amnesty. This is tantamount to listing a lot of methods. In the end, only Amnesty was realized, benefiting many Hispanic voters and the Democratic Party. Such a loss-making business is difficult to sell in the congress where the party is in the majority. New technologies such as drones can improve the efficiency of border inspection without increasing costs on a large scale. It is estimated that in Tucson, Arizona, border inspection can now arrest nearly two-thirds of illegal immigrants and repatriate another14, reducing the success rate of illegal immigrants to about 13%. New information management technology can reduce costs and facilitate employers to quickly verify employees' qualifications without revealing personal privacy. The new guest worker system can provide a large number of cheap workers without increasing farmers' costs. To a certain extent, the current environment in the United States is conducive to promoting a reform. Due to the slow economic recovery, the number of illegal immigrants entering the United States has been greatly reduced. It is estimated that there may be less than 654.38+million people a year, while in 2006.5438+0, it is estimated that 1.6 million people entered the United States. A considerable number of illegal immigrants began to leave the United States voluntarily, and the total number of illegal immigrants began to decline. These give the two sides a chance to breathe and talk. However, it is easier said than done. Let's wait and see, and go wherever we go.