Gansu housing immigrants

The land price is high, the land kings are frequent, the floor price often exceeds the selling price, the risks in first-tier cities are looming, and the third-and fourth-tier cities are facing high inventory pressure. In this case, second-tier cities are becoming the focus of many developers' layout.

Pay attention to the second line

65438+1October 13, after more than two hours and 47 rounds of bidding, the commercial and residential plots on the west side of Canggang Road and on both sides of Hengsan Road in Foshan were finally won by Shenzhen Chuangrun Real Estate Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chuangrun Real Estate") for 96 10/00000 yuan, with a floor price of 4768 yuan/year. Chuangrun Real Estate is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sunac (Shenzhen) Real Estate Co., Ltd., which is the first time Sunac has entered Foshan.

Sun Hongbin, Chairman of Sunac China, said at the 5438+0 conference in early June that Sunac was focusing on second-tier cities. In 20 15, Sunac continued to focus on Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Hangzhou, and also entered eight core second-tier cities such as Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Xi and Jinan.

In 20 16, in South China, Sunac will focus on Guangzhou and its surrounding six cities, such as Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Foshan and Dongguan. When Sunac laid out the South China region, it recently took Foshan as the first stop and chose the Green Island Lake area in Zen West.

Zheng Rong Group is also concerned about second-tier cities. Xiao Chun, assistant to the president of Zheng Rong Group and general manager of the investment development department, recently expressed his hope to participate in the land auction in cities in the Yangtze River Delta and wait for opportunities to enter Hefei, Xiamen and other cities. At the end of last year, Zheng Rong Group successively acquired land in Suzhou and Fuzhou.

Why should housing enterprises focus on second-tier cities? This is because third-and fourth-tier cities are facing huge inventory pressure, and developers have returned to first-and second-tier cities. Although the market of first-tier cities is large, but under the fierce competition of major developers, there are frequent helpless landlords, and the floor price exceeds the selling price, which hides great risks.

"There is no market in first-tier cities now, and it is risky to take land." Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told China Business News that real estate involves two major areas, namely, land purchase and real estate sale. "If you sell the building, there is no risk in the first and second lines, but if you take the land, the first-tier cities are risky, so you can only focus on the second-tier cities."

Sun Hongbin said: "If the land prices in Beijing and Shanghai fall, we will continue to take land in Beijing and Shanghai. If land prices continue to rise, we will quickly complete the layout of second-tier core cities. " He also said, "I used to see Beijing and Shanghai, and I could buy them everywhere. Looking at Beijing and Shanghai now, I can't buy it anywhere. Land prices have risen too fast. "

Which second-tier cities have more opportunities?

From the perspective of regional economy and urbanization development, second-tier cities will also become the key areas of urbanization in China. Megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have reached the stage of strictly controlling the urban population. At present, China is gradually decentralizing the functions of Beijing, Shanghai and other megacities, and the boundaries of these megacities are also strictly controlled.

For example, the 13th Five-Year Plan of Shanghai proposes that Shanghai should strictly control the population size of megacities. Based on the research results from various aspects, the long-term control goal of Shanghai is that the permanent population should not exceed 25 million. By the end of 20 14, the total resident population in Shanghai reached 24,256,800. In terms of land use, the increment of construction land in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" will decrease year by year, and the total planned construction land will achieve negative growth. By 2020, it is necessary to keep the red line 3 185 square kilometers, which is 4 1 square kilometers less than the original planning target. In the next five years, Shanghai will only add about 60 square kilometers of construction land.

On the one hand, megacities strictly control the boundaries of urban development and population size; On the other hand, third-and fourth-tier cities and small and medium-sized cities are relatively easy to settle down, but due to industrial development and lack of public resources, it is difficult to attract immigrants. In contrast, second-tier cities will have more room for development.

Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Urban Development and Environment Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, told China Business News that the urban population of Beijing and Shanghai has reached about 20 million, and there are indeed many "urban diseases". The population of many second-tier cities is around five or six million, which is still far from Beijing and Shanghai, and there is still a lot of room for growth. "The size and population of a province in China is equivalent to a big European country, so it is normal to have a provincial capital with a population of 5 million to100000."

Although there are more opportunities in second-tier cities, the differentiation is also quite obvious. Among them, due to the weak economy, housing sales in some second-tier cities in the northeast and northwest are still under great pressure. In addition, some second-tier cities are facing considerable risks due to excessive land supply in the past few years, despite good economic development.

According to the Report on Residential Inventory of 50 Cities in China issued by Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, as of June last year 165438+ 10, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, Nanchang and Shenzhen had relatively few inventories. Suzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, these three second-tier cities, the de-chemical cycle is only 5 months. In addition, the cycle of chemical removal in Zhuhai, Nanchang, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Jinan and Xiamen is also below 10. However, the pressure of destocking in central and western provinces such as Hohhot, Urumqi, Changsha, Lanzhou, Xi, Shenyang and some capital cities in Northeast provinces is still relatively high.

Therefore, at present, in addition to the second-tier cities with large population inflows such as Suzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Jinan, Fuzhou and Qingdao in the developed eastern coastal areas, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Chengdu and other provincial capitals with large population in the central and western regions are also favored.

Take Henan, a populous province, for example. The registered population of this province exceeds 1 100 million, but the urbanization rate is still relatively low, and there is still a lot of room for urbanization. Although there are more than100000 people in this province flowing to the developed coastal areas, most farmers still hope to realize urbanization in Henan. In this process, Zhengzhou, as a unipolar core city in Henan Province, will accelerate the inflow of population. At present, Zhengzhou has a population of just over 4 million, which has great potential.

However, Zhang Dawei also reminded that although second-tier cities are generally favored, some of them, such as Nanjing, Xiamen and Suzhou, are already in hot spots in the market, with frequent land kings and prices close to first-tier cities, which also brings certain risks to developers. "Last year, we mainly looked at population, turnover and transformation. We must look at the land price this year. Because even if there is a market, there is a great risk if the land price is too high. "