How many people did the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom control?

Table 1. Before and after the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom War, the population of Jiangsu Province was 10,000.

Fuzhou Hall 185 1 1865 Population Change 1953.

Population (%)

Suzhou Mansion 654.1228.9-65.0-425.438+0 313.2

Songjiang mansion 293.0 263.0-10.2-30.0198.6

Taicang196.9145.0-26.4-52.0119.4

Zhenjiang mansion 247.551.9-79.0-195.5187.9 *

Changzhou Fu 431.4167.2-61.2-260.4 442.3

Jiangning house 452.9108.7-76.0-344.2 304.5

Yangzhou Mansion 789.8616.0-27.0-173.8652.8

Xiaoji 3065.61580.7-50.9-1481.02216.7.

Haiting 79.183.8+5.9+4.7136.7

Tongzhou 303.8311.4+2.5+7.6415.4

Huai 'an Mansion 395.8418.2+5.7+22.4598.2

Xuzhou Building 444.7 469.9+5.7+25.2 544.4438+0 * *

Haizhou141.3149.3+5.7+8.0212.2.

Xiaoji1364.71432.6+5.0+67.91906.6.

Total 4430.33013.3-32.0-1413.14125.3.

Fuzhou Club1865 ——1953

Average growth rate ‰

Suzhou house 3.6

Songjiang prefecture -2.0

Taicang area -0.5

Zhenjiang Building 10.7

Changzhou House 1 1.2

Jiangning house 1 1.9

Yangzhou prefecture 0.7

Small plan 3.9

Haifoye 5.7

Tongzhou 3.3

Huaian mansion 4. 1

Xuzhou Building 1.7

Haizhou 4.0

Small plan 3.3

Total 3.6

See the above analysis for the population from 185 1 and 1865. 1953 For the population, please refer to People's Republic of China (PRC) Demographic Data Collection 1949- 1985 compiled by the Demographic Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, and China Financial and Economic Publishing House 1988.

Note: * Yangzhong County is demarcated by Dantu County in Danyang County and Taixing County in Tongzhou County. In order to keep the consistency of the administrative boundaries of 185 1, 1865 and 1953, and make a comparative calculation, the population of Yangzhong County is calculated as 1953.

* * Xinyi County was divided by the former Xuzhou Prefecture and Haizhou County, so 50% of this population belongs to Xuzhou Prefecture and Haizhou for comparison and calculation.

Taken together, Jiangning, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou, Songjiang and Taicang Zhili reduced their population 1, 486,5438+0,000 in the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom War. During the same period, the population of northern Jiangsu increased by 679,000, which is estimated according to the natural growth rate of northern Jiangsu before the war. Population decrease and population increase cancel each other out, and the population still decreases by 1, 4 1.3 million, and the post-war population is about 68% of the pre-war population. There is little difference between the two estimation methods, because we set the standard time point for post-war population calculation at 1865, just after the war. If the set standard time is too far from the end of the war, the natural population growth after the war will affect our estimation. In the two estimation methods, we choose to reduce the population as the final estimation.

It can also be seen from the table 1 that before the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, the population of northern Jiangsu reached 215.45 million, accounting for 48.6% of the total population of the province. Is it possible to overestimate this ratio? We might as well test the number of "Dingkou" in Yangzhou, Huai 'an, Xuzhou and Haizhou in northern Jiangsu in Jiaqing Tongzhi, and test it with the population of the Republic of China and 1953 to ensure the reliability of the data.

Table 2. From Jiaqing to 1953 Yangzhou and other four places, male and population distribution unit: 10,000.

The proportion of Jiaqing Year in this area during the Republic of China was 1953 (proportion).

Male (%) Population (%)

Yangzhou 326.8 44.6 538.7 34.1562.8 29.4

Huaian163.8 22.3 426.9 27.0 598.231.2

Xuzhou184.0 25.1424.3 26.8 544.128.4

Haizhou 58.58.0190.512.1212.210.

Total 733.11001580.41001917.3100.

Source: Jiaqing Tongzhi; Hu Huanyong's "China Population Distribution Map" Appendix "National Population Statistics": 1953 China County Population Statistics.

Based on the analysis of the population and population ratio in the four places in the three periods in Table 2, it can be seen that the population and population ratio in Xuzhou area are the most stable in the three periods, with only a slight increase; Huaian is on the rise, which may be related to the development of coastal areas; During Jiaqing period, the male proportion in Yangzhou prefecture was the most suspicious, much higher than that in the Republic of China and 1953. However, as mentioned above, due to the destruction of Yizheng, Ganquan and Jiangdu counties in the southwest of Yangzhou by the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom War, the population decreased by 27% of the total population. If we subtract 27% from the male population in Yangzhou in the 25th year of Jiaqing (1820), the male population in the four places will account for 37%, which is close to that in the last two periods. After the war, a large number of Yangzhou people moved to southern Jiangsu for reclamation, and a large number of them moved to Shanghai during the Republic of China. Therefore, the decline in the proportion of Yangzhou population in Table 2 may be related to this. Therefore, table 1 is generally correct in estimating the population of northern Jiangsu before the war.

Only when the concept is clearly defined and the data reliability is confirmed can we discuss the characteristics of population changes in a long period after the war.

As can be seen from the table 1, among Jiangsu provinces, Songjiang prefecture and Taicang prefecture have some abnormal population growth. The population of Songjiang prefecture shows negative growth, which may be related to the inflow of population into Shanghai. Several towns in Baoshan County under the jurisdiction of Taicang Prefecture are under the jurisdiction of Shanghai, which is also the reason for the low population statistics of Taicang Prefecture. Excluding Songjiang and Taicang, taking Suzhou as an example, the average annual population growth rate after the war was 3. 6‰, only slightly higher than the pre-war level, which may be related to the fact that no immigrants moved in the eastern part of southern Jiangsu after the war. The average annual population growth rate of Zhenjiang, Changzhou and Jiangning is as high as 10‰- 12‰, which is caused by immigrants (note: for immigrants after the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, see the relevant discussion in Chapter 8 of Ge et al.' s A Brief History of China Immigrants'. )。 From this perspective, we have considerable confidence in the population figures of southern Jiangsu after the war.

In areas where immigrants are concentrated, the survival competition between aborigines and immigrants often occurs, and the natural growth rates of the two types of population tend to converge (Note: For this theory, please refer to Cao's "Population Growth of Immigrant Clans in Ming and Qing Dynasties-An Analysis of Genealogical Data in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River", which is contained in Research on Chinese Economic History No.4 +099 1. )。 Suppose that the indigenous population of jiangning house 1087000 has been growing at a rate of 7‰ since 1865 (Note: as for the average annual natural growth rate of the two types of population, this is only an estimate: higher than the population growth level of non-immigrant areas, but lower than the total population growth level of immigrant areas. ), 1953, there are about 2 million indigenous descendants, which is the actual population of Jiangning area of 3.045 million, including about10.45 million immigrant descendants. Excluding 400,000 immigrants and their descendants who moved in after the capital was established in Nanjing, the number of immigrants who moved in after the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was 640,000. At the same growth rate (we take this as the standard time point for calculating the immigrant population), it dates back to the fifteenth year of Guangxu (1889), and the immigrant population was about 4 1 10,000. After the war, the total indigenous population in Zhenjiang and Changzhou was about 2 19. 1 10,000, and the population increased at a rate of 7‰, reaching 4 million in 1953. The actual population of the two dynasties was 6.302 million, and the descendants of immigrants reached 2.3 million. During the Republic of China, Changzhou cities such as Wuxi and Changzhou rose, with a total population of 878,000 in 1.953, half of which were immigrants from other places, and the descendants of immigrants after the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom were about1.900. Looking back at the same growth rate, to 1889, the immigrant population is about1220,000.