Why is Chechnya not making trouble now?

After the Beslan incident occurred in September 2004, the Chechnya issue became relatively calm. Before the Sochi Winter Olympics, there was another commotion. In recent years, Chechen separatists, terrorists, and extremist religious forces have relatively shrunk under Russia's strong suppression.

However, through the practice of the three "Y-colored revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, the United States is likely to theoretically conclude a "de-Russification" model that weakens or dismembers Russia. Although there is no precedent for applying it to Russian autonomous republics, I believe that the United States will not fail to infiltrate these autonomous republics. Among these autonomous republics and countries, Chechnya is of course the first choice of the United States. There are two main reasons for this:

(1) The United States believes that there is a political basis for realizing "democracy" in Chechnya. The United States determined that Maskhadov was an ideal candidate to support. Maskhadov posted a message on the Internet, announcing the reorganization of his "government" and appointing himself Prime Minister of the Chechen government.

This is an institution that is not even qualified to be a government-in-exile. No wonder some experts on international issues call it the prime minister on the wall and the minister in the drawer. But the United States does not view this issue in this way. He believes that this organization, and at least several of its people, are the political forces that represent Chechnya in implementing "democratic reforms." For this reason, the United States, while always insisting that Maskhadov is the legitimate president of Chechnya, ignored Russia's protests and accepted the request of this "government's" Foreign Minister Akhmatov for asylum in the United States. Britain also followed its allies and allowed its new Culture and Information Minister Zakayev to continue his illegal activities in London. For Russia - Maskhadov Aslan Aliyevich;, this is a dangerous signal, because the United States has been hoarding opposition leaders from many countries in exile overseas, some of whom are already in the United States After overthrowing the original regime through various means, he became the spokesperson of American interests.

(2) The rising international geostrategic status of the Caucasus region after the end of the Cold War has exerted a strong attraction on the United States. As Georgia fell to the west, the United States finally gained a foothold in the Caucasus, which it had coveted for nearly a century. From now on, this place will surely become the frontline of the struggle between the United States and Russia. For the United States, the competition in the Caucasus can not only further dismember and encroach on Russia, but also has a deeper meaning of surrounding Iran, which it calls a "rogue country," to the south, and heading east to attack the five Central Asian countries in Russia's backyard. In addition, judging from the trends in the world oil market in the past few years, whoever can control the Caucasus can control the flow of oil in the Caspian Sea. The United States will not stand idly by in this economic contest.

Based on these reasons, the United States must entangle itself with Russia on the Chechen issue. The way to do this is probably to first strive to internationalize the Chechen issue so that it can intervene openly and openly, and then exclude Russia and achieve the goal. Chechnya becomes independent. After the Beslan incident in 2004, American and Western politicians almost unanimously criticized Russia's Chechnya policy, advocating that Russian troops withdraw from Chechnya and be replaced by international peacekeeping forces or NATO to maintain stability in the Caucasus. The United States has also publicly expressed its intention to engage with Chechen separatists.

Also after the Beslan incident, after Putin issued eight counter-terrorism measures, the United States said that some of the provisions were "retrograde to democratic reforms." The United States stated that the United States stands firmly with Russia in counter-terrorism operations, but it is important to maintain the right balance between counter-terrorism and domestic reform and democratic processes.

It can be clearly seen from these performances of the United States that regardless of Russia's attitude, the connection between Chechen separatists and external forces is likely to gradually become public, and the Caucasus issue will further internationalize. Finally, the actions of Chechen illegal armed forces may even be integrated into the strategic orbit of the United States to a certain extent.

Russia itself is also very clear about this. Shortly after the Beslan incident, Putin made it clear in a speech that some hostile forces in Russia were trying to separate certain regions from Russia, and this approach was supported by other forces.

He said: "Their idea is that Russia, as one of the nuclear powers, still poses a threat to them, so they must get rid of it quickly." Rashid Nurgaliyev, the then Minister of Interior of the Government of the Russian Federation, made this view of Russia more clear at a joint meeting of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and other law enforcement agencies. He said: "The main factor affecting the crime situation in Russia is still the provocation of international terrorist forces. Terrorist planners have greatly taken advantage of ethnic and religious differences in order to strengthen illegal activities within our country and bring about changes in Russia that are beneficial to Western countries." "The tacit supporters behind international terrorism in Russia are Western countries. "This is the biggest hidden danger for Chechnya's "independence" and the biggest danger facing Russia.