At present, it is reported that China's GDP has surpassed that of Japan, ranking second in the world. This paper conducted a social survey on this topic and wrote an article on it.

The second place in the world is full of bullshit.

It is said that in the second quarter of this year, Japan's GDP was $65.438+28.83 billion, and China's GDP was $65.438+33.69 billion, surpassing Japan! Although it is not the data for the whole year, it seems that the year-end ranking has surpassed Japan, and we have another proud capital.

Can't say that scale is not important. I can't say that the data is completely nonsense. But to be honest, I always thought this GDP was the second most nonsense in the world.

First of all, this "second" itself has problems. I don't need to tell you the truth and accuracy of China's data. According to the statistics of local government in China, we have surpassed Japanese for many years! 1958, we will surpass Britain and catch up with the United States, so what?

Secondly, the second gold content is more problematic. As we all know, how our GDP is piled up. Growth mainly depends on investment, and investment mainly depends on the government. What are the benefits? Can such growth improve the wealth accumulation of the country and people? Can it improve people's quality of life? Can it enhance national strength? Not only did it not, but it even played a negative role in many cases! Those achievements projects, corruption projects and projects that harm people have certainly increased GDP, but they have wasted people's money, reduced social wealth and hurt our country, society and people!

Third, even if the above two can be done, it depends on where the wealth is used and whether it really improves the welfare of the people. We ask ourselves: What is the happiness index of China people? Is China's happiness the second highest in the world? We don't need to do a social survey at all (don't make a Gallup poll that China people think the respect ratio is 9 1%), and everyone knows it clearly! Look at the top countries (the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France-not to mention those countries with high per capita GDP and higher social welfare, such as Switzerland and Sweden). Which country is a big immigrant country? What about China? How many immigrants go abroad and how many immigrants come in? Even those officials and experts who are proud of being second in the world, when they have the opportunity to immigrate, how many can stay? I'm not accusing these people. Choosing a better life is a human instinct and a human right. This is not a question of value judgment at all, not a question of moral standards, but a question of human instinctive tendency. But when the inner happiness is contrary to the second place in the world, such a second world is useless!

Remember that sketch by Zhao Benshan? Lao Zhao said with a string of pigeon eggs: No business, that's bullshit! Haha, almost.

I have written similar articles on this issue before. At the beginning of this year, Tsinghua University's China and World Watch was also invited for this theme. I wrote an article "The Second World is Spiritual Opium", and when it was published, the editor changed it to "Institutional Crisis Behind GDP Figures". So I won't say much, and posting this article here is a supplement to the occasion:

During the Spring Festival, I was traveling abroad, and a Hawaiian surfing instructor chatted with me. As soon as I heard that it was from China, I immediately gave a thumbs up and gestured upwards: China, China! Then give a thumbs up: America, America!

Indeed, the rise of China is a "phenomenon" that attracts the attention of all people in the world. As a China person, I will certainly be proud of it. After 30 years of reform and opening up, a country that has been poor and weak for hundreds of years and has been bullied by others has the world's second largest economic aggregate and the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, making it a world manufacturing base. The products produced meet the domestic demand, but also become the world's second largest exporter, the largest automobile market and the world's largest luxury consumer market! The most intuitive feeling of the international community about China is that China people are rich: from Paris to new york, from Thailand to Singapore, from the Middle East to Africa, from Australia to South America, those famous and unknown tourist attractions are full of China tourists, and those luxurious shopping malls are crowded with China consumers who spend a lot of money. Their generosity is enough to make Japanese, American and European tourists feel ashamed and short of breath.

How do we view our "second place in the world"? There is no doubt that the expansion of self-confidence is inevitable, which is fully demonstrated by the ever-present and ubiquitous manners. It is normal for the poor to get rich, and it is understandable to cheer, but this mentality cannot be maintained for a long time. Especially as a country, a big country and a developing country in transition, we should not turn the national mentality of the nouveau riche into national mentality, national orientation and national behavior, but should think more deeply. At this time, calmness is more important than cheering.

In fact, we still need to consider two questions: First, are we really "the second in the world"? Can a figure of economic aggregate represent all the connotations of "the second place in the world"? Second, even if we really become "the second in the world", do we have the mind, tolerance, value and responsibility of "the second in the world"? Can we assume corresponding responsibilities to the people and the international community?

To tell the truth, my personal answers to these two questions are not optimistic.

First of all, our "second place in the world" has a scale, but how big this scale is still in doubt. In other words, there is a lot of puffiness in it. Due to the statistical caliber and methods, a considerable part of our added value statistics have not formed real national wealth, and still remain on the "number". Even, some "GDP" is not only national wealth, but people's negative assets. For example, many achievements projects and tofu dregs projects have contributed to the growth of GDP, but they are a waste of social wealth. The government's monopoly on land management has pushed up the land price, and the extraordinary development of real estate has also greatly increased the economic aggregate, but the bubble is more harmful. Although we can't accurately calculate how much water and foam there are, there is no doubt that it should be much higher than that in developed market economy countries. Therefore, if calculated scientifically, it is not clear whether it really exceeds Japan and Germany.

Second, even if we have a certain total-not to mention second, our economic quality is not high, which is far from being the real second competitive power in the world. Even if we don't compare with Japan and Germany, even if we compare with other countries with smaller economic aggregates, such as Sweden, South Korea and tiny Singapore, our competitiveness in some important areas is frustrating. Look at the ranking of China's scientific and technological competitiveness in the world! In fact, it has been hovering in the twenties and thirties for many years, and it has declined in recent years. Although we shout for innovation, the innovation system is far from being established, and it is an indisputable fact that the innovation ability is seriously insufficient. Under such circumstances, the contribution of science and technology to our economic growth is far lower than that of developed countries, and our GDP is more accumulated by consuming resources and simple labor. Due to China's national conditions and the efforts of Chinese people, it is natural to form a large-scale economy, but its internal and external aspects are difficult to match.

Third, our soft power gap is even greater. Undeniably, China's overall economic strength is improving, and my position in the world economy is also rising, but its share in the world economy is still only 6-7%, only a quarter of that of the United States, and its per capita is far behind, behind dozens. From another important indicator-import, China's annual import volume is about US$ 1 trillion, but it accounts for less than 7% of the world. From the perspective of soft power, there is still a big gap between us and China's international status and competitiveness reflected by the above economic indicators.

For example, China has almost become the largest exporter in the world, but this is only in the field of goods export. We are far behind in the fields of technology trade and service trade. Tourism depends more on the legacy left by our ancestors and the gift of God, not to mention that it really depends on our creativity and competitiveness now.

It is difficult to measure the influence of culture and global competitiveness, but at least the export of cultural products can be used as a reference. What works in China can have worldwide influence now? How many movies, TV plays and books can we export? Not to mention that compared with the United States and other cultural exporting countries, even South Korea can't compare. Even in the China market, the box office of an imported blockbuster can surpass the box office of all domestic films in that year, which shows that we are not belittling ourselves.

China's exports of goods are huge, but the output of basic production factors is extremely poor. Technology? In which field and technology are we leading in the world, and can generate huge energy to drive the development of the industry and even the economy and society? As the number one in the world for many years, the United States also has a large number of world-leading high and new technologies that match its global status. However, China's science and technology has fallen behind, and what's worse, its position in the world's science and technology has declined in recent years. A little data: From 2000 to 2006, China enterprises obtained 3,447 patents in the United States, while the number of patents from Japan was 24 1 1,000 and that from Taiwan Province Province was 39,000. Even if you are not ashamed of management? How much has our macro-and micro-economic management contributed to world economic management? It is not our creation to interpret positive finance as a modern version of Keynes, nor is it our invention to say that socialism saves capitalism. Japan's Toyota model has caused a global enterprise management revolution. However, it seems that there are not many foreign enterprises studying and following the management law of Shi Mao, and so are China enterprises such as Haier and many private enterprises. Institutional innovation? I'm sorry, not only can we not carry out institutional innovation and export at all levels to promote external economic growth, but we can't even absorb what others have already done. Not to mention the export of values, because we haven't even formed the basic concepts of market economy such as contract spirit and honesty consciousness, let alone what are humanities and values. There are no achievements or achievements in these aspects, and our "second place in the world" lacks the confidence it deserves.

We also have to mention that as the second largest economy in the world, we are seriously short of enterprises that reflect the corresponding competitiveness. Although we have 34 Fortune 500 enterprises, most of them are enterprises in monopoly industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum, electric power, railways and aviation. And their business income and profits are obtained by monopolizing the market, not by technological progress, efficient management and quality service. The typical "clay-footed giant" not only does not have global competitiveness, but also becomes a cancer for the benign development of domestic industries and an obstacle to China's economic and social development.

Therefore, while celebrating becoming the "second in the world", we should also ask: Is China also the "second in the world" in terms of science and technology, management, ideas, systems, competition subjects of enterprises and so on? I believe that even optimists can't confidently answer: Yes! 6# Author: Brother Reply Date: More attention should be paid to the deep-seated crisis hidden behind China's "second in the world" glory.

Our current growth model itself is unsustainable and cannot be copied from the outside. Look at our current growth, the export drive is negative, the consumption drive is not worth mentioning, and it basically depends on investment; In terms of investment, we rely on financial investment, state-owned enterprise investment and bank loans. Can't grow up, can't grow down. The industrial structure, regional structure and social structure have not improved with the growth, but it is increasingly difficult to return. Including the low efficiency and even excessive consumption of environment, resources and other factors, may bring GDP growth in the short term, but there are many problems in the long run. Such a fatal flaw and even unsustainable development mode and growth mode, even if it can create a "second place in the world", is expensive and dangerous.

By our own admission, we have not established a stable institutional support for our growth from macro to micro. Chaos, large and small, can be attributed to the institutional level. It is said that the current international competition, in the final analysis, is the competition of the system, and our "reform remains the same"

Therefore, I think that even if we are "actually second" and internationally recognized (in fact, there are many people who wear big hats for us in the world, but there are also people who have introduced "BIG2". China has become a superpower and a global axis, but whether it can be taken seriously or not), we still need to have some self-knowledge. Don't say not now. Even if it becomes N0. 1 in a few years, it's better to keep a low profile.

I think that the mentality of "second in the world" is no less than spiritual opium for China today. Creating illusory beauty and strong atmosphere can make China people feel superior, but it can't cultivate real self-confidence and self-esteem, which brings us tolerance, thinking and strategy as a big country. 8# Author: Brother's reply date: 20 10-8- Since it's only an essay on China's "second place in the world", we might as well spread our thoughts: Avatar, an American film in the early stage, was popular all over the world, but it was hard to get a ticket in the IMAX cinema in Beijing, and a domestic film director lamented that China's film was 50 years behind Avatar. I thought it was not a box office problem, but a film technology problem. But what I want to ask is: if our film technology lags behind foreign countries for 50 years, how many years will it lag behind in art and thought?