Which of the four first-tier cities is the best?

There are four first-tier cities in China: North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Which city is the best and which city should be ranked last seems to be a controversial topic.

There must be multiple dimensions to judge, such as economic output value, social influence, urban agglomeration composition and so on. But I think any dimension of judgment is ultimately less objective than that of population mobility.

Man is the cleverest creature on the planet. They will choose the best living conditions for themselves. Maybe they can't write a reason when they choose, but after these individuals gather into a big data, they may explain some problems.

The National Bureau of Statistics may not have this data, but big data Internet companies will.

Let's look at the conclusion first:

This is Baidu's test of population flow in cities in the first quarter of this year. We find that among the first-tier cities, Shenzhen has the strongest population absorption capacity, followed by Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai.

Last year, the highest number was in Beijing, and now it has become the first quarter of Shenzhen 20 17. This is a change, and it also represents the city's attitude towards migrants. The order of Guangzhou and Shanghai has not changed, and Shanghai ranks last. Have you guessed this?

But is this a fact? Let's look at the data from another dimension:

This is the population absorption of the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin wing urban agglomerations.

We found that the Yangtze River Delta with Shanghai as the core has the strongest population absorption capacity, surpassing the Pearl River Delta with two first-tier cities, which is quite unexpected to me.

May reflect a problem. For Shanghai, although the absorption capacity of a single city is not the strongest, it has promoted the collective development of surrounding cities and become a real urban agglomeration.

Let's look at the specific ratio:

This is the proportion of the inflow population of different cities in the urban agglomeration. We find that this gray ratio is the largest in the upper triangle urban agglomeration. In other words, the Yangtze River Delta is the only urban agglomeration without absolute oligopoly.

For the Pearl River Delta, it is undoubtedly monopolized by Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Dongguan, while the Beijing-Tianjin wing is even more obvious, which can basically be called Beijing and its surrounding areas.

Therefore, there is no doubt that the Yangtze River Delta is relatively healthy and stable in the development mode of urban agglomerations.

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So for the Pearl River Delta, there is a picture that may explain some problems.

This is the place where people flow on the eve of the Spring Festival. The darker the color, the more people will flow before the Spring Festival.

To put it another way, the darker the color, the more people will flow out every day.

We found a very surprising phenomenon. Cities around the Pearl River Delta, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and even Dongguan, are all dark red in color. In other words, the fresh laborers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are extremely dependent on the supply of neighboring cities. The development of these two cities needs blood transfusion from the perspective of labor force to a great extent.

But it also means that these two cities are the most open and willing to accept migrants.

This may be the charm of Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

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Then for Beijing, there may be a number that can represent his position.

This is the destination of population outflow on the eve of Spring Festival travel rush.

It is also very similar to the previous picture. People from the Pearl River Delta return to their hometown around Guangzhou and Shenzhen, while people from Shanghai return to the Yangtze River Delta.

But we see red, where Beijing's population flows out, with the largest scope and the widest cross-region.

So in other words, if there is only one center in China, then this center is Beijing. This is not supported by data, but a sense of identity in people's hearts. Only Beijing can attract people from all over the country.

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So if we must win a battle for the first-tier cities, I have the following views:

At present, the whole society in Shenzhen is more open and inclusive, so it has absorbed the largest number of migrants to some extent. I remember that Beijing was the first in 20 16, and it became Shenzhen in the first quarter of 20 17. You can attribute it to the regulation of the property market, but I prefer the whole urban culture.

Of course, we also need to admit that Shenzhen is an immigrant city, and population fluctuations will become more and more frequent in the future. This is not all good. To put it bluntly, once there is something wrong with Shenzhen's economy, the population collapse may happen instantly.

For Beijing, it is still the focus of China's attention, but we do find that the Beijing-Tianjin wing has not been developed so far, so we can probably understand why there is the concept of xiong'an new area here, but we also need to be more cautious. After all, the same is true of Tianjin, which has a better foundation. xiong'an new area must have a long way to go.

As for Shanghai, it should be the most balanced city, and from the perspective of economic drive, it has indeed driven the development of surrounding cities, so we can better understand why Shanghai is particularly prone to price increases when it restricts the purchase restrictions of surrounding cities, because housing prices have been linked to the economy, and the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta has always been closely linked.

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In addition, when writing here, I suddenly found an interesting data:

Data of population outflow in first-tier cities: