Can stocks still be played?

The risk of not entering for the time being is still very high.

The G7 includes the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada.

The G7 announced that "the G7 will take decisive action and use all means to stabilize financial markets and restore credit flows to support global economic growth."

However, this short statement No specific steps are included. Therefore, it was criticized as "nothing" as soon as it was published! The U.S. Department of Labor released the latest data, and the data fell in September, which shows that there are big problems in the real economy. House prices in the United States are now expected to fall by 40%, and consumer investment is not in good shape. This may drag down the subprime mortgage situation in the banking industry to continue to worsen, offsetting the US$700 billion in bailout funds.

First of all, money is needed to save the market, and this is the most basic thing. As the richest country in the world, something very embarrassing has happened in the United States. It owes tens of trillions in foreign debt and cannot repay it. The economy is having problems again. The United States is the only country other than China that can survive the economic crisis by relying on strong domestic demand. But this time the problem happened to be internal rather than external, so this is not the same as the last economic crisis in Southeast Asia. If this crisis expands into a global financial crisis due to the shortage of bailout funds in the United States, it can be said without hesitation that the United States may experience an economic recession for more than five years, and in the current global economic integration, China will definitely not be able to survive the current impact. It's just the beginning. It's not like the Chinese government's attempts to comfort the Chinese people. The subsequent negative effects will surely appear one after another. China's strategy of expanding domestic demand is also urgent.

Since this crisis has just begun, the pace of bankrupt companies will not stop here. It can be expected that many American economic giants will fall one after another. Where can the United States come up with so much money to rescue the market? This is a test for the Chinese government. It has just begun. Of course, the test of China's stock market has just begun. Let's hope that China's stock market can withstand the dual pressures of major and minor conflicts and financial crises. 0?2

Temporary exemption of interest tax on savings deposits: This policy is to balance the impact of the 0.27% reduction in deposit and loan interest rates and the 0.5% reduction in the deposit reserve ratio on the outflow of funds from the banking system. On the surface, The interest rate cut is good for the stock market and is intended to encourage capital outflows and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, the temporary exemption of interest tax on savings deposits reveals the government's unwillingness to have large-scale capital outflows from banks. Banks are still hoarding funds to cope with the upcoming global financial crisis. This is in line with the government's general macro strategy of encouraging domestic demand. China's economy actually operates on a dual track. Although the real economy and the virtual economy (capital investment market) are connected, they are not The same trend has not appeared. When the stock market has collapsed, although the relevant listed companies have an impact, it is not fatal. This policy has reflected the country's intention to protect the real economy. All interest rate cuts are to provide support to the real economy. Enterprises provide financial support and have no intention of encouraging funds to flow back to the virtual economy when funds are limited. This is also wise. As long as the real economic system is preserved during the financial crisis, it will be very easy for the country to recover after the crisis. In a situation of tight funds, protecting the real economy temporarily pretends to protect the virtual economy, which means abandoning the car to save the handsome!

It is called margin trading when a customer borrows funds from a securities company to buy securities. It is called securities lending when a customer borrows securities from a securities company and sells them. This news initially limited the market capital, but after a long period of time, it got back on track ( It may take more than 3 years) before the scale can have a greater impact on the market, and foreign markets have shown that after the development of margin trading and securities lending reaches a relative balance, it will help rise and fall, but it will not change the general trend. If in a bull market, This news is good because it will amplify the upward trend, but in a bear market, the news is very negative to a certain extent, because the downward trend may also be amplified. This policy is a double sword, which works well in different trends. On the contrary, since the system involves business collateral, margin requirements, forced liquidation system, settlement risk fund, credit rating system, etc., it is necessary to pay attention to the investment risks caused by leveraged investment that far exceed those in the past.

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Of course, as an institution that wants to sell, even if it is negative, institutions, stocks and the media will deceive individual investors into always being bullish on the good policy and think that the policy is a substantial good. Of course, they only want individual investors to think so. They know very well that this policy may not have any benefit to the stock market for a few years. It may even be because it helps the stock market fall even more sharply in a bear market. It is good for shipments, and individuals are more willing to invest funds to take over. In the final analysis, like the stamp duty policy, it is a fig leaf to cover institutional shipments. 0?2?0?2

When institutions describe a bright future to retail investors and let retail investors buy the bottom, what are the institutions doing?

TopView data shows that in the past two weeks, institutions have reduced their positions by more than 20 billion yuan in the stamp duty market (not counting the large and small ones)! More than 150 billion yuan of retail investors' funds have been locked up!

Institutional institutions Why are you so optimistic about the market outlook? Why are you encouraging retail investors to boldly buy the bottom while you are frantically reducing your positions? Now I can only use the word crazy to describe it. Waves of pump-and-dump sales are coupled with new favorable rumors (market rumors say that margin financing and securities lending and T+0 will be launched after the holiday) (I have repeatedly mentioned to small and medium-sized investors that the time when the country really wants to issue policies is The sneak attack is not made known to the public in advance. When has it not been like this? Recall it! In other words, this rumor may be just like the previous rumors, maybe it is all created by the organization to cooperate with the shipment, and the result of the rumor is only one. If it cannot be cashed out after the holidays, there is only risk in waiting for small and medium-sized investors.) The good news in July and August has been all over the sky for 2 months and has not come out. You may still remember the news and worry about it. When the rumors are good, there may be no good news. When the good rumors disappear, the market will fall and panic. No one believes that the good news will come when it comes. Maybe the good news will come out. It may also be a wise move to always stand on the opposite side of most crazy investors! It doesn't hurt to be vigilant at a time when most people are running wild and losing their sense and judgment. Fund managers who are somewhat rational and sober know very well that the so-called benefits in the world today are dispensable. If they do not affect the overall situation, they will resolutely reduce their positions. However, what they do best is to make the benefits that do not affect the overall situation appear to be substantial. Sex benefits give individual investors too much hope. 0?2

If the problem of size is not solved, it is only a matter of time before it breaks 1800, and it will not be the lowest point. And 2270 is the first pressure level of this rebound (already lost). If the market is at this point, I couldn't break through and started to turn my head downwards. Just accept it as you see fit.

If the major and minor problems that caused this bear market really allow time to be resolved as the country hinted through the Xinhua News Agency’s comments, then there will be hope in 2011 after the peak period of lifting the ban, and adjustments will be in place to get out of the bottom. The main force The market for shipments has no bottom. The bottom is that institutions have built large-scale positions, not retail investors. It is recommended that investors who are prudent and have high safety requirements not to intervene, and mainly hold currency and wait and see. The non-issues that caused the big drop directly caused the funds to fall. The short side suppresses the long side for a long time, and in this long-term trend, the capital side is occupied by the short side, and the market naturally fluctuates downward for a long time. This is the real reason why stocks keep falling.

The stock market is very complicated. It is also very simple. What is complicated is that any factor may cause the stock market to change, but the simple thing is that the long-term long-short trend of funds determines the long-term rise and fall trend of the market. However, the stock market cannot only fall but not rise, it will definitely continue to fall. There will be a rebound on the way, but the scale of the rebound should be judged based on the good news on the policy side. If it is still these non-substantive good news that support the market, then every rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions. Only small and large non-substantive good news can support the market. After the restrictive measures are implemented, it is possible for the market to ease the pressure on funds and bring about a wave of mid-level rebound or even reversal. As long as the core problem that caused the crash is not resolved, investors will view it as a rebound and reduce their positions on rallies, while continuing to The weak confidence of oversold investors makes bargain hunting funds very cautious. Although bargain hunting funds try to change this operating trend, the situation is not too optimistic. The current stock market is not a lack of confidence or lack of funds as the government said. Personally, I feel that there is a lack of confidence and lack of funds. Under the shadow of large and small non-profits, both of these are now lacking. This year is the lightest year for large and small non-profits. There are only 3 trillion lifting funds (enough to eliminate the main force). Although the government has come up with a fund, it still has to be political. But it seems The real effect is not big. Institutions continue to rebound and ship goods without stopping. They have to choose the strategy of retreating while fighting to reduce losses. The government will come out with so-called benefits to prevent the stock market from continuing to fall. If the solutions are just some innocuous policies, then in the current market situation where the long-short balance of funds has been broken, investors should still not be too optimistic, because if the real problem is not solved, the financial situation will continue to be tense. .If there is a rebound caused by policies, it would be wise to lower the price on rallies. Don’t believe that stock reviews do not take into account the actual market situation. Since the non-liberation funds in 2009 were nearly 7 trillion, the unlocking funds in 2010 were nearly 7 trillion. 10 trillion, and this has far exceeded this year’s 3 trillion. Therefore, before the core issue that caused this crash is resolved, the financial pressure will not be resolved. Any marginal favorable policies will bring Everything is just a rebound and not a reversal. Although the stock market is very complicated, it is actually very simple. The law of the stock market is that if you sell more than you buy, it will fall; if you buy more than you sell, it will rise. Most people know this truth. But why are some people unwilling to face it when the financial situation has been reflected? Don’t believe that there are big and small non-profits who want long-term investment. When the big and small non-profits have low cost or even zero cost, the profits will be as high as 400% as soon as the ban is lifted and listed. , even as high as over 1000%, the huge profits brought by this cost, in a weak market, do you think non-holders of big and small will settle down or will they continue to watch their profits shrink (big and small are also investors , Profit first is also their philosophy. When long-term shareholders have this idea, only retail investors who have been educated by institutions will do it) and in a long-term trend, for some reason, the power of selling is at an overwhelming advantage. Why talk about a bull market? When you come back, you are deceiving yourself. What non-substantive policies bring about is a rebound, not a reversal. Because the market’s strongest support area 3300~3400 and the so-called strongest policy iron bottom 2990 that stock commentators and institutions say will never be broken down are both It has quickly collapsed in the face of the reality of financial imbalance. Therefore, in the short term, without the support of new favorable policies, the rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions. Only with funds in hand can we have the initiative and usher in the real bottom. The bottom line is that the main players are copying, not retail investors. When the main players are forced to reduce their positions on a large scale due to large and small pressures, what small and medium-sized investors can do is to go with the trend and not go against the trend. We must also control our positions when institutions reduce their positions.

The above are purely personal opinions, please be cautious when adopting them