Interpretation of the reasons for the Great Australia Plan

On June 27th, 2009, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd delivered a speech at the Australian Business Council, clearly proposing to build a greater Australia in line with the changing international situation in the first half of the 20th century, and to maintain Australia's international status and high living standards of Australians. During this period, the vast majority of immigrants will live in 10 major cities, of which more than 70% are located in the southeast, namely Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Brisbane and other major cities. Australia's urbanization rate is one of the highest in the world, reaching over 90%. Due to the limitation of geographical conditions, the population of Australia is mainly distributed in the southern area near the coast, and because of the small population, it is mainly concentrated in several big cities. According to the current standards for judging the level of a city, cities such as Sydney and Melbourne can only be classified as small cities, and the population scale is far behind that of a medium-sized city in a developing country. Therefore, the proposal of the Greater Australia Plan is not only the choice of the country's development path, but also the consideration of future unstable factors.

1. The choice of national development path. A correct national development path should not only conform to the national conditions and historical traditions, but also adapt to the changes in the surrounding environment, especially the changes in the international situation and the development of science and technology closely related to itself. Australia is an immigrant country, and immigration is not only the driving force for its development, but also the cornerstone for safeguarding the interests of Australians. Historically, the majority of Australian immigrants were white citizens of English-speaking countries, especially the British, Irish and Americans. Followed by Eastern Europeans, China, Indians and Southeast Asians. The existence of different races not only activates the vitality of Australia's development, but also leads to a large number of racial contradictions and disputes within Australia because of cultural differences and the negative influence of Eurocentrism. From the end of 18 to the 1940s and 1950s, the continuous influx of immigrants promoted two major social transformations in Australia: one was from an overseas prison to a colonial society; The second is the transformation from an agricultural society to an industrial society. These two great changes are inseparable from a series of factors of production such as labor, technology, capital and management theory brought by immigrants. Especially after 190 1, the Australian government promulgated a series of immigration laws, such as the Immigration Restriction Act, which greatly adjusted the immigration policy. In order to protect the interests of whites, inhuman political violence was carried out against other colored people, resulting in a large number of overseas immigrants. In the 1960s and 1970s, the relationship between Britain and Australia tended to be cold, especially after Britain joined the European Union in 1973, the trade between the two countries fell to the lowest point in history, and the total trade volume was less than 10% of Australia's total foreign trade. In 1970s and 1980s, with the rise of the Four Little Dragons in Asia and the gradual relaxation of the international situation, Australia adopted a pragmatic foreign policy, formally established diplomatic relations with China, improved its relations with its Asian neighbors and promoted the trade process with Asian countries. The implementation of the relatively independent Asian policy in this period brought good opportunities for Australia's great development. It not only "makes the pattern of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region develop in the direction of balance of power, creating conditions for political stability and economic prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region", but also urges Australia's foreign trade focus to shift from Europe to Asia, and the trade volume between Australia and Asia has increased substantially. In Australia's foreign import and export trade, 65% of agricultural, animal husbandry and industrial products are sold to Asia, and 55% of imported products come from Asia. This shows that the growth of Australia-Asia trade has greatly affected foreign policy. In the 1990s, the two-tier structure disintegrated, the cold war ended, and the relations between big countries tended to ease, which provided a good opportunity for small and medium-sized countries to play an important role on the world stage. During the Keating government in Australia, the foreign policy of "facing Asia" was carried out and a series of diplomatic activities were carried out, which not only promoted the development of Australia-Asia relations, but also provided guarantees for Australia's economic development, political stability and national defense security. From 65438 to 0998, Howard came to power and adopted the policy of returning to Europe and weakening Australia-Asia relations in diplomacy, but it could not fundamentally change the close trade pattern between Australia and Asia, especially with China and Japan. With the continuous expansion and deepening of globalization, the Australian government is increasingly aware of the importance of its Asian neighbors.

With the western developed countries entering the post-industrial society, after hundreds of years of development, scientific and technological research and innovation have entered the primitive period, rather than a dynamic and explosive scientific and technological revolution. The main feature of this period is that the research cycle of science and technology is longer, and the contribution rate to the economy and society is obviously reduced and postponed. Therefore, the potential difference in the existing scientific and technological level of developed countries will last for some time, but after crossing this stage, after developing countries and developed countries are in the same position in the scientific and technological level, the whole world will enter the primitive stage, that is, the slow development stage. Due to different national conditions, science and technology are still effective as the primary productive force at present, but for Australia, it has entered a primitive period. The economic structure has been relatively stable, and there will be no phenomenon of developing countries adjusting their economic structure. In 2003-2004, the biggest contribution rate of industry to GDP was the manufacturing industry, which reached 10.9%, followed by the property and commercial industries, which reached 10.5%, and the financial and insurance industry, which reached 7.6%. The output value of the tertiary industry accounts for more than 70% of GDP. Therefore, in the long run, in addition to maintaining the existing economic structure and scientific and technological level, other growth points and driving forces are necessary to realize the stable development of the country. Entering the 2 1 century, globalization is accelerating, and the strong development momentum and economic strength of developing countries will inevitably lead to greater national interests in politics, which will inevitably pose a continuous challenge to the existing international community. If we don't fight actively, we'd better be prepared, which will lead to our country being at a disadvantage in the international situation. Therefore, it is reasonable for Rudd's government to regard a large number of immigrants as the long-term development path of the country after investigating various factors affecting the country's development. In Australia with a very small population base, population expansion brings pressure and motivation. How to solve it is another problem.

Australian

2. Population dilemma. Australia, with the fifth largest land area in the world, has a disproportionate population size, and its population structure has highlighted the aging trend. In 2004, the total population of Australia reached 20 10/0,000, which is equivalent to some big cities in developing countries. The population is relatively small and scattered in several big cities. Therefore, the space for Australia's population growth is foreseeable. In 2004, Australia's population growth rate was 1.2%, an increase of 12% over the previous decade. Comparing the population growth rate of Australia, New Zealand is 1. 1%, Canada is 0.9%, the United States is 0.9%, Britain is 0.3%, Japan is 0. 1%, Germany is 0.0%, Malaysia is 1.9%, and China is 0.6. It can be seen that developed countries including Australia have entered the stage of low birth rate, low mortality rate and low growth rate, but the population growth rate of Australia is obviously higher than that of other developed countries, mainly due to its population policy, which allows10-130,000 immigrants every year. The influx of a large number of immigrants naturally reduces the impact of mortality, thus keeping the annual population growth rate in Australia at around 1%, which is significantly higher than other developed countries. However, due to the small population base in Australia, according to the current growth rate, by 2050, the population size will be around 2.30-3.10.40 million; Due to the decrease of growth rate, it is estimated that the population will reach 37.7 billion by 2 100. Therefore, it is impossible to greatly increase the total population of Australia simply by maintaining the current immigration policy based on the natural population growth rate. When the natural population growth rate of a country is lower than 1% and the population size is basically stable, its economic aggregate tends to be stable, especially for developed countries that have entered the stage of low natural growth rate. Population is very important for maintaining sustained economic development and social stability. Compared with the United States, Japan, China, France, Germany and other populous countries, in order to maintain Australia's sustained economic development and social stability, and fulfill the promise of the Labor government to voters, Australia must find a way to promote the development of all walks of life in Australia, and this road is not stormy, but lasts for a long time, slowly digesting the contradictions and social cracks arising in this process. Judging from the demographic structure, Australian society has entered an aging stage. Young and middle-aged people (15-59 years old) account for the largest proportion of the population, reaching 63%; Children (0- 14 years old) accounted for19.6%; The elderly (over 60 years old) account for 17.3%, and this proportion will further increase with the baby boomers entering old age after World War II and 1950s. In addition, the average life expectancy in Australia is 80.2 years, which is significantly higher than that in many other developed countries, such as the United States (77.3 years), Britain (78.3 years), Greece (78.2 years) and Canada (79.9 years). It can be seen that the increase of life expectancy accelerates the aging of the whole society and expands the scale of aging. The long-term low birth rate makes the aging problem a major problem that the government must solve, which leads to the weakening of the vitality of the whole society and the insufficient investment of production factors in the economy, thus affecting the development of the whole country and the improvement of its international status. Therefore, it is not enough to stimulate and supplement the development space brought about by the domestic population size and structural defects through external factors. Australia has operable historical experience and realistic domestic situation, which determines that increasing immigration is a long-term strategy for national development. However, the challenge brought by population expansion is enormous, because the increase of immigrants will inevitably impact the existing economic and social order. In order to accommodate tens of millions of immigrants, the government has a lot of preparatory work to do. A series of debates caused by this have to make people feel that it may take a long time for citizens to accept the Greater Australia plan.