What does the contemporary American economy inspire our country? Urgent!

In recent years, the American stock market, especially the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has been falling continuously. By the end of 2000, the Nasdaq index had only closed at 2470 points, and the Dow Jones index had also dropped by 6.2% compared with the beginning of the year. In the third quarter of 2000, the economic growth rate of the United States dropped sharply, and the consumer confidence index weakened one after another, which made people worry about whether the American economy could "soft land". Warnings of a "hard landing" of the US economy and a global recession also appear in the media from time to time. What is the economic trend in the United States? What will happen to China's economy if it is a "hard landing"?

What is the economic prospect of the United States?

According to Phoenix. com. Com, through the rational analysis of the American economy, we think that the prospect of the American economy is still good in the past 10 years, mainly because:

The potential of the new economy has not yet been brought into play. In recent years, the rapid economic growth in the United States, a considerable part of which depends on the low cost and high efficiency brought by the new economy, and the resulting improvement in labor productivity. The emerging economy composed of information technology, bioengineering, new materials, aerospace and so on is in a rapid development stage. The development space of the new economy is still huge, and the direct and indirect promotion to the economy is immeasurable at present. Therefore, in the next 5- 10 years, the new economy will still be an important factor supporting the economic development of the United States.

Demographic factors. The United States has an excellent immigration policy in the world, which can attract the best talents in all fields of the world. In the information and high-tech era, economic competition is actually the competition of talents. Only by gathering a large number of outstanding talents can the economy be invincible. Recently, in order to meet the needs of economic development, the United States passed laws to increase its quota of accepting immigrants (mainly skilled immigrants) from 60,000 to 65,438+10,000 per year. Secondly, the 1960s was the baby boom in America. About 70 million babies were born at that time, accounting for a quarter of the total population of the United States. Now is the prime of life, high income and high consumption, which has a strong stimulating effect on the sustainable development of the American economy. This situation may last until 20 10.

America is still the most attractive place for capital in the world. This is because: the laws of the United States are sound and various supporting measures are perfect, and the interests of investors can be protected most effectively; The perfect intellectual property protection in the United States is very conducive to the development of emerging industries; The United States is an immigrant country, which not only attracts all kinds of outstanding talents, but also helps investors from all over the world to start businesses in the United States. The United States is an economic, political and military power, and the US dollar is still the main reserve currency of many countries.

Of course, there are still some serious problems in the American economy. Mainly manifested in: high trade deficit; American private savings rate is too low; The change of the Fed's helm may affect the continuity of macro-control; Irreversibility of economic cycle; The possible impact of a "hard landing" of the US economy on China's economy Although we think it is unlikely that the US economy will have a "hard landing", we should plan ahead, analyze the possible impact of a "hard landing" on China's economy, and formulate corresponding countermeasures, so as to deal with problems in time and reduce the impact.

Direct influence. The direct impact mainly comes from trade and capital.

1, deal. Sino-US trade has shown a rapid growth trend in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 1996- 1999 reaching 12.8%. 1999 China's total import and export to the United States accounts for 17% of China's total import and export. At present, the United States has become the largest importer of China. In 1999, China's exports to the United States amounted to $41900 million, accounting for 2 1% of the total exports. If we consider the entrepot trade with the United States through Hongkong, the proportion of China's exports to the United States can reach about 25%. In 2000, this trend continued to strengthen. From 1 to 1, the cumulative export to the United States reached 43.4 billion US dollars, which exceeded the total export to the United States last year.

From the perspective of import and export structure, 1999 China's exports to the United States are mainly mechanical and electrical products, footwear, toys, clothing, leather products, furniture, plastic products and metal products, mainly labor-intensive products, among which the proportion of mechanical and electrical products is increasing. Imported products are mainly technology-intensive products, such as airplanes, mechanical and electrical equipment, paper and paper products, chemical fertilizers, chemicals and petroleum equipment.

Under the current circumstances, if the economic situation in the United States deteriorates and trade shrinks, it will have a great impact on China's foreign trade. Not only will the direct trade between China and the United States be greatly reduced, but the re-export trade between China and Hong Kong will also be correspondingly reduced, which is unfavorable.

However, considering the characteristics of China's import and export trade, the degree of this adverse effect may be low. First, most of China's exports to the United States are low-priced products. With the economic downturn in the United States and the decline in mass consumption, such goods are likely to be more popular in the American market. Second, China's trade mode is special, that is, processing trade such as "three supplies and one supplement" (processing and assembly of incoming materials, processing and assembly of imported equipment and compensation trade) is still the main form of China's foreign trade, accounting for 53.7% of the total import and export. This makes China's dependence on foreign trade look high on the surface. In fact, the part that China really benefits from processing trade is processing fee, which accounts for a very small proportion of the total trade volume. Third, if the dollar depreciates, the RMB linked to the dollar will also depreciate accordingly, which will help stimulate exports.

2. Capital. Since the 1990s, American investment in China has greatly increased, with an average increase of 54% from 199 1- 1999. But up to now, the proportion of American investment in China's total foreign capital utilization is still not very large, ranging from 1999 to 9.9%. If there is a "hard landing" in the US economy, American enterprises may reduce their investment in China, which is a disadvantage. On the other hand, after the "hard landing" of the American economy, a large amount of funds will flow out of the United States. If China can seize this opportunity, make full use of the advantages of stable development and potential market and improve the foreign investment environment, it will be possible to turn disadvantages into advantages and attract more foreign investment.

Indirect influence. From an indirect point of view, if there is a "hard landing" in the American economy as the locomotive of the world economy, its influence will undoubtedly spread all over the world. This fluctuation effect is not good for China and the whole world economy. Only in different aspects, different regions are affected to varying degrees.

In terms of capital, from 1990 to 1999, the total amount of global foreign direct investment (FDI) has been increasing continuously, from 1999, the total amount of global FDI reached 865.5 billion US dollars (see table 1), of which nearly 1/3 flowed to the United States. The United States has become the largest recipient country in the world, with foreign investment of $275.5 billion in 1999, and it is expected to maintain this scale in 2000. A hard landing of American economy will inevitably lead to the redistribution of international capital. Judging from the current pattern of the capital market, the main capital inflows may be the European Union, Japan and Southeast Asia.

From the perspective of trade, the United States has always occupied an important position in the world. From 65438 to 0999, the total import and export volume of world commodities reached1132.9 billion US dollars, of which the United States accounted for 15.4% (see table 2). After the "hard landing" of the American economy, foreign trade will inevitably shrink, which will affect the total world trade, but the degree of influence is not consistent in different regions.

Since the EU's import and export volume to the United States only accounts for about 8% of its total trade volume, it is relatively less affected by American trade. The impact on Japan and other Asian countries will be enormous. Japan's annual exports to the United States account for about 30% of its total exports, while imports from the United States account for 24% of its total imports. If the economic situation in the United States deteriorates and the dollar depreciates, it will cause a very heavy blow to Japanese exports. As Japan is a country that relies heavily on exports, the reduction of net exports is more likely to bring about a slowdown or even stagnation of economic growth. The economic recovery of Southeast Asian countries also depends largely on the growth of exports, and the United States is one of the main export markets of Southeast Asian countries, among which electronic products are the most important export commodities. At present, nearly two-thirds of the export income of Singapore and the Philippines comes from electronic products, and the proportion of South Korea, Taiwan Province Province of China and Malaysia is 30% to 50%. Once American imports shrink, it will lead to a sharp drop in exports from Asian countries.

At present, China's exports to Asia (including Japan) account for about 53% of its total exports. If the terms of trade between Japan and other Asian countries deteriorate, it will further affect China's exports to these countries.

In addition, problems in the US economy, which accounts for 65,438+0/4 of the global economy, will lead to a slowdown in global economic growth. This will have a negative impact on China, which is increasingly open and integrated into the world.

In view of the above analysis, we suggest that in order to prevent and reduce the impact of American economic fluctuations on China's economy, we should make preparations. Fundamentally speaking, as a big country, we should and can rely mainly on the huge domestic market to do a good job in the economy.

1) It is necessary to further intensify the reform, take measures to change people's psychological expectations, expand residents' consumption demand, and stimulate private investment and production and business activities. In addition, the fiscal deficit can be appropriately expanded to add some impetus to the expansion of domestic demand. 2) Continue to implement the policy of zero tax rate and timely tax refund, encourage exports, adjust the export structure, and continue to implement the diversification strategy. 3) Pay attention to making good use of foreign capital. On the one hand, we should seize the opportunity of the substantial increase of foreign direct investment agreements in 2000, do a good job in the implementation of the agreements, and on this basis, attract foreign investment by further opening up investment fields; On the other hand, it is necessary to attract foreign investment through institutional innovation and relying on transparent, clean and efficient administrative work and booming economy. 4) In the long run, first, strengthen understanding and cooperation between China and Japan, and promote the formation of "ASEAN +3" regional economic union. In the process of global economic integration, regional economic alliance is the first to play a role.

For Asia, the "ASEAN +3" model currently being brewed is a good direction, and the key lies in the cooperation and efforts of China and Japan. It is unrealistic to form a favorable environment without completely solving the relationship with Japan. Second, we should strengthen the legal system, especially the construction of foreign-related laws and regulations. The international situation we are facing and the reality of China's entry into WTO show that only by using legal weapons can we win a better foreign trade environment for our country in the future.