Has Palestine been established?

Palestine has not yet been established.

The origin and prospect of Palestinian statehood

Author: Zhao Hongtu

The establishment of an independent Palestinian state is a dream that Palestinians have been pursuing for many years. On 3 July last year, the Central Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization announced in Gaza that it would establish an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital at the end of Palestinian transitional self-government on 3 September. After the Camp David talks, Arafat visited more than 20 countries to seek their support for Pakistan's declaration of statehood. Although Palestinian statehood is the general trend, judging from the current situation, it is difficult for Pakistan to establish a state on time and the road to statehood in the future will not be smooth.

The origin of the Palestinian question

Palestine lies at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa. It was called Canaan in ancient times and originally included Israel, Gaza, the West Bank and Jordan. Historically, Jews and Arabs are descendants of the ancient Sumerians in West Asia and once lived here. In the 1 1 century BC, the Jews founded a state in Palestine. In 1 century BC, the Jewish state was conquered by the Roman Empire, and Jews began to spread all over the world. In the 7th century A.D., Islam rose in the Arabian Peninsula, forming a prosperous Arab empire and seizing Palestinian areas from the Christian Byzantine Empire. After the Arabs settled in the Palestinian area, they merged with the local aborigines for a long time, forming today's Arab Palestinians. From 65438 to the 6th century, Palestine became a part of the Ottoman Empire.

After living in a foreign land, Jews have been persecuted and have always had the desire to restore the country. 1897, they held the first Jewish congress in Basel, Switzerland, established the Zionist organization and started Zionist activities. At the same time, Palestinian Arabs also started a struggle to overthrow Ottoman rule in Turkey and establish their own nation-state. After the First World War, Palestine became a British mandated territory. 19171kloc-0/In order to suppress the Arab national liberation movement, Britain issued the Balfour Declaration, supporting Jews to establish a "national homeland" in Palestinian areas. Since then, Jews began to immigrate to Palestine in large numbers from all over the world, and the contradiction between the Arab nation and the Jewish nation intensified. After World War II, Britain declined, and the United States took the opportunity to win over the Zionists, making them a tool for the United States to contain the Arab national independence movement.

194711In October, the United Nations General Assembly, under the control of the United States and despite the opposition of Arab countries, adopted resolution 18 1 and decided to establish two Arab and Israeli countries in the Palestinian area. At that time, Jews, who actually accounted for only 6% of the land and13 of the population, got 56% of the land in the Palestinian area; Arabs, who make up two-thirds of the total population, get only 43% of the territory. Jews agreed to the resolution and declared the establishment of "Israel State" in May 1948. However, the Arab countries opposed and rejected the partition resolution, and the Arab countries failed to establish the partition resolution. The day after the founding of Israel, Arab countries declared war on Israel, and the first Middle East war broke out. Since then, the Palestinian issue has evolved into a full-scale conflict between Israel and Arab countries. After the First Middle East War, Israel occupied most of the land of the proposed Arab countries. 1967 In the Third Middle East War, Israel further occupied the West Bank and Gaza, thus controlling the whole Palestinian area except Jordan. Palestinians were forced to flee to neighboring Arab countries and other parts of the world and become refugees. For many years, Palestinians have been strongly demanding the restoration of legitimate national rights and the establishment of their own independent country.

The bumpy course of repairing home

The Palestinian people have fought hard for many years to restore their homeland. In the early 1950s, a secret organization with the purpose of recovering homeland appeared. 1964 In May, the Palestine Liberation Organization was proclaimed, and an organization representing the Palestinian people appeared for the first time. Under the leadership of the PLO, the Palestinian people launched an armed struggle with the goal of recovering Palestine and completely liberating it. 1973 After the October War, the PLO followed the trend, strengthened the struggle in the political and diplomatic fields, and gradually changed from armed struggle to political struggle, and put forward the idea of "Israel withdrawing its troops from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and establishing a small Palestinian state here". Since then, the international status of the PLO has gradually improved. From 65438 to 0974, the Arab Summit, the Organization of African Unity and the Non-Aligned Movement successively passed resolutions recognizing the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. In June of the same year 165438+ 10, the General Assembly "affirmed the right of self-determination of the Palestinian people" and granted the PLO observer status. Subsequently, the United Nations established the Committee on the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People. As the representative of the Palestinian people, the PLO has been recognized by more than 65,438,000 countries and has sent permanent representative offices to more than 80 countries. 1988165438+10. In October, the extraordinary session of the Palestinian National Council held in Algiers adopted the Declaration of Independence, announcing its acceptance of United Nations resolution 18 1. 1On April 2, 989, the PLO Central Committee held a meeting and unanimously elected Arafat as President of the State of Palestine. After the founding of Palestine, it was quickly recognized by more than 100 countries, including China. The United Nations has also accepted Palestine as an observer, but it is actually useless because it does not have the basic conditions of a nation-state.

In order to win more political support and economic assistance from the international community and finally establish a Palestinian state, the PLO decided to conditionally accept autonomy through negotiations with Israel and gradually realize national self-determination. 1In September 1993, after arduous secret negotiations, Palestine and Israel finally signed the Oslo Agreement under the auspices of the United States, and Israel and the PLO recognized each other. 1In May 1994, according to the agreement reached between Palestine and Israel, Palestine exercised limited autonomy in the Gaza and Jericho. On July 1 of the same year, Arafat bid farewell to Tunisia, the headquarters of exile, and returned to Palestinian land to establish an autonomous government, the Palestinian National Authority, in Gaza to manage the areas vacated by Israel. 1On September 28th, 1995, Palestine and Israel signed the agreement on the second phase of Palestinian autonomy in Washington, which expanded the Palestinian autonomy to six cities in the West Bank, including Jenin. 1996 65438+1On October 20th, the Palestinian autonomous region held its first general election, elected Arafat as the president of the Palestinian National Authority, and elected the 88-member legislature, the Palestinian Parliament, which took an important step towards "having its own country".

After the Netanyahu government took office, it pursued a hard line and the peace process was deadlocked for a long time. Ness put forward "security for peace", explicitly opposed the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and demanded that Palestinians accept autonomy as the final solution. The successively signed Hebron Agreement and Wye Agreement have not been effectively implemented. 1999 the Barak government came to power in may, and the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks took a turn for the better. In September, the Sharm el-Sheikh Memorandum was signed in Egypt. Subsequently, Israel partially fulfilled its obligations such as withdrawing troops and releasing Palestinian prisoners, and the two sides entered the final status negotiations.

According to the Oslo agreement reached between Palestine and Israel in 1993, the five-year Palestinian transitional self-government phase should end on14 May 1999, and a Palestinian state should be established in the Gaza and the West Bank. Due to the delay of Likud government and other reasons, the transitional negotiations could not be completed on time, and many provisions on transitional autonomy could not be implemented. Although Arafat repeatedly claimed in his propaganda and diplomatic offensive in March-April of 1999 that Palestine would "establish a state as scheduled" according to the agreement, under the pressure of all parties, considering the upcoming general election in Israel, the PLO Central Committee decided to postpone 1999' s declaration of statehood on April 29.

The main considerations and difficulties faced by Pakistan in announcing its founding.

Last February, the PLO Central Plenary Session passed a resolution announcing that an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital would be born within this year. On 3 July, the Central Committee of the PLO announced that it would declare the founding of the country in September last year 13, and instructed the Central Executive Committee of the PLO to take measures to complete the implementation of the declaration of the founding of the country and national sovereignty. Although the Palestinians have shown strong determination and desire for independence from top to bottom, public opinion generally believes that it is inevitable for the Palestinians to postpone the founding of the country again in order to avoid conflicts with Israel, given that the deadlock in negotiations is difficult to break and the search for international support is frustrated. Recently, Arafat and some Palestinian officials have also begun to show flexibility on the issue of state-building, and have repeatedly hinted that they will re-evaluate and announce the state-building plan.

First, the main intention of Pakistan to declare its founding.

Arafat is clearly aware that it is unrealistic for Pakistan to unilaterally declare the founding of the country under the current conditions, but he still repeatedly emphasizes the founding of the country and actively runs. His main purpose is:

1. Put pressure on Israel. Israel's intention of repeatedly delaying its withdrawal and splitting the final status negotiations is increasingly obvious, and the Palestinian side is increasingly skeptical about Israel's sincerity for peace. The PLO believes that the issue of state-building must be decoupled from the final status negotiations in order to gain greater initiative and force Israel to make greater concessions in the negotiations.

2. appease hardliners and relieve internal pressure. In the past year, the Palestinian self-government has fallen into an unprecedented predicament. The repeated setbacks in the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have increased the dissatisfaction of the Palestinian people, triggered doubts about the choice of peace talks strategies, and the radical forces are increasing day by day. At the Central Plenary Session of the PLO in February this year, a considerable number of delegates expressed concern about the Oslo agreement, and Mazen, the general secretary of the PLO Executive Committee, who advocated that the date of founding the country should be decided according to the results of the negotiations, was besieged. The stone war that broke out in May this year showed the Palestinian people's doubts, disappointment and dissatisfaction with the peace process. Arafat made too many concessions in the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, and many agreements were difficult to implement, which made many people doubt Arafat. Last year, the announcement of the establishment of People's Republic of China (PRC) was postponed, which further reduced its credibility. Arafat faces a crisis of confidence.

3. Make the establishment of People's Republic of China (PRC) supported by all parties. At present, Palestine is in a difficult situation, and the cards that can be played are very limited. The final status negotiations are full of difficulties. Without the support and sympathy of the international community, it will be more difficult to guarantee the legitimate rights of the Palestinian side. In order to attract people's attention to the Palestinian issue, especially in order to put pressure on Israel and promote the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, Arafat had to play the last trump card for the founding of the country.

Second, the main difficulties faced by Pakistan's founding

At present, the internal and external conditions for the founding of Pakistan are not mature enough. It is difficult for Palestine and Israel to reach an agreement on the issue of the founding of the country in the short term, and it will face many difficulties to declare the founding of the country as scheduled.

1. Unilateral declaration of the founding of the country is of limited significance. At present, Palestine's declaration of statehood is obviously different from 1988 PLO's "oral" statehood in Algiers. It is based on the agreement reached between the two sides under the supervision of the international community, with the aim of turning the Palestinian state from paper into reality and establishing a truly sovereign state. However, in the absence of an agreement between Palestine and Israel, Palestinian statehood is still a unilateral act, and the situation will not be substantially improved compared with the current situation. Without a series of corresponding diplomatic steps, such as raising the level of diplomatic representatives, changing the way of communication with the Palestinian authorities, and delineating the borders with Egypt and Jordan, and without Israel's recognition, it will still be difficult for Pakistan to achieve real independence, and it will be of little significance to declare its founding.

2. Israel has a tough attitude. Israel reacted strongly to the decision of the PLO Central Committee to establish a state. Prime Minister Barak has repeatedly warned that if Palestine unilaterally declares statehood, the Israeli army will annex all the land that has been returned to Palestine in the West Bank and establish a "security zone" in the Jordan Valley. Levy, then foreign minister, pointed out that this move means that the Palestinian side will abandon the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and related obligations, saying that the Israeli government will never meet the demands of the Palestinian side. If Palestine unilaterally declares the founding of the country, it will take necessary measures to fight back. In addition, there are many people in Israel, such as extreme religious figures, eastern Jews and settlers, who oppose Palestinian statehood. In recent years, with the progress of the Middle East peace talks, more and more Israelis gradually realize that it is only a matter of time before a Palestinian state is established, but they still hope that this Palestinian state will reappear after the two sides reach a peace agreement.

3. The United States opposes Pakistan's unilateral founding. The United States is the only external force that can exert pressure and influence on Palestine and Israel and affect the peace process, and it is the key to implementing the Oslo Agreement. Although the United States supports Pakistan's right to self-determination, it has never recognized Pakistan's founding period. The U.S. Congress opposed the propaganda of Pakistan's founding, and the U.S. government also made it clear that it did not support Pakistan's declaration of its founding without consent. In his televised speech on July 28th, Clinton said that if Pakistan unilaterally declared its founding on September 28th, 13, the United States would conduct a comprehensive review of US-Pakistan relations and even move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Clinton also threatened to stop economic aid to Palestine, called on other donor countries to join the sanctions, and will unite with the international community to refuse to recognize the Palestinian state. In this case, Pakistan "cannot expect the United States to make any guarantee for Pakistan".

The international community hopes that Pakistan will "choose the right time" to establish its country. After the failure of the Camp David summit, Arafat visited more than 20 countries in succession, seeking support for his declaration of the founding of the People's Republic of China on September 13, 2003 and his claim to the sovereignty of East Jerusalem. The vast majority of countries say that Palestinians have inalienable rights to independent statehood and support Palestinian statehood, but at the same time, they believe that the conditions for statehood are not yet ripe and hope that Palestine will "carefully choose" the time to declare statehood. Although the EU expressed its support for Palestinian statehood, it hoped to resolve it through consultation. Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov said that there is no problem for Russia to recognize the status of a Palestinian state, but "we must consider all the circumstances very carefully when choosing and determining the date of declaring the state." Norwegian Foreign Minister IAgal said that Norway fully supports the right of Palestinians to establish their own state, but the goal of establishing a state should be achieved through negotiations. In addition, the attitudes of Egypt, Iran and other Islamic countries on the issue of Palestinian statehood are not as positive as before.

5. There is not complete agreement within Palestine. The founding of the country is a strategic goal that the Palestinian people have been striving for for for decades. They are not faced with the question of whether to establish a country, but what kind of country they will use, not whether they have territory, but how much territory they will get. At present, the Palestinian self-government only enjoys the right of civil administration, while national defense and diplomacy are still controlled by Israel. The Israeli authorities frequently impose blockades on the Palestinian self-government and 99% of Palestinian economic and trade activities also depend on Israel. Many Palestinians are worried that if they unilaterally declare a state without reaching an agreement, it will not be much different from the current autonomy, so they are skeptical about the current declaration of a state.

Although Pakistan once again postponed the declaration of statehood to temporarily ease the tension between Palestine and Israel, the contradiction has not been fundamentally resolved. For some time to come, the issue of Palestinian statehood will remain the focus of the international community. The establishment of an independent Palestinian state will be the inevitable result of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, but the road to Palestinian statehood will still be arduous and tortuous.

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