What is the content of the international strategic environment?

Section 1 Overview of International Strategic Environment

I. International strategic environment

The international strategic environment refers to the overall global environment formed by the strategic interrelations, interactions and struggles between major countries and political groups in the world in a certain period of time. It includes two aspects: the international strategic pattern and the international strategic situation. The international strategic pattern is the framework of the international strategic environment. The international strategic situation is a dynamic expression of the international strategic environment. In essence, it reflects the basic situation and general trend of political relations between political groups of major countries in the world based on certain military and economic strength, and its core is the world war and peace. The international strategic environment is formed under a certain background of the times, and the characteristics of the times have a decisive influence on its basic features.

In addition, the main factors affecting the international strategic environment are: the contradiction of international strategic interests and its development; Distribution and distribution of world political, military and economic forces; The strategic relationship between major countries and the situation of their struggle, restriction and cooperation; The process and result of the war, and the nature and degree of the threat of war.

The international strategic environment is an international condition for national security and development, which has a great influence on the realization of national strategic goals and interests, and determines or restricts the object of political, military and economic struggle, the relationship between friends and enemies, and the principles, policies and strategies adopted by a country. Any kind of strategy is put forward according to certain environmental conditions, and it is restricted by such environmental conditions in the implementation process. Therefore, the analysis and judgment of the international strategic environment is a crucial issue that must be paid special attention to in the process of making strategic decisions and implementing strategies. Only by standing at the height of the times and starting from the strategic interests of major countries or political groups, systematically investigating the situation and development trend of the long-term international strategic situation, comprehensively analyzing various internationalization conditions that affect national security and development, and identifying the possible deterrent direction, nature and degree, can we put forward correct strategic countermeasures.

In a word, the international strategic environment is the overall situation and trend of major countries in the world during the period of contradiction, struggle or cooperation. It is a comprehensive embodiment of the international political, economic and military situation, which is related to the survival and development of a country and affects the object, task and goal of a country's military struggle. Therefore, in order to survive in the international environment, we must first examine and attach importance to the external environment and conditions.

Second, the theme of peace and development has not changed.

The theme of the times refers to the core issues that are global, strategic and related to the overall situation in a certain development stage of human society. It is a concentrated reflection of the basic characteristics of a certain era, represents the essence and development trend of this era, and stipulates the corresponding main tasks of the people of all countries in this era.

What is the theme of today's era? As early as 1980s, Deng Xiaoping pointed out that there are two real big problems in the world, one is peace, and the other is economy or development. The issue of peace is to oppose hegemonism and safeguard world peace, that is, to strive to maintain the non-war state of the world as a whole; The development problem is mainly the North-South problem, that is, the economic development of developing countries and the economic development of all mankind, which is the core issue in today's world. In other words, the theme of today's era is peace and development.

After more than 20 years, is Deng Xiaoping's thesis out of date? I should sayno. Although it has been 20 years since the end of the Cold War and the international situation has undergone profound and tremendous changes, the theme of the times of peace and development has not fundamentally changed. The reason is:

(1) Driven by information technology and knowledge economy, economic globalization has become one of the most important development trends in the world today, deepening the interdependence among countries. In particular, the application and popularization of information technology not only creates new labor tools and produces more products, forcing people to look for markets and investments abroad, but also provides more advanced and faster communication tools for human society and ensures frequent international contacts and exchanges. This situation, coupled with the dependence of developed countries on energy resources and backward countries on the technology of developed countries, has greatly improved the interdependence of countries in the world today. This situation objectively does not allow us to return to the pattern of international relations that is incompatible with the development level of the world's productive forces, such as hostility between countries or confrontation between great powers, thus pushing forward the trend of peace and development.

(2) After the Cold War, especially in recent years, although the tendency of the United States and other western countries to pursue hegemonism and use force in international relations is increasing, hostility and confrontation between major powers have not yet formed, especially the global strategic opponents of the United States such as the former Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact Group are unlikely to appear. For China, Russia and other world powers, the basic strategy of the United States will still be to bring Russia and China into the international system dominated by the United States and the West mainly through contacts or "partnerships", and at the same time to implement long-term strategic prevention against China and Russia. Although the United States and European powers can basically maintain alliance relations, there are various contradictions and differences on many major issues, such as the eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union, the role of NATO, the deployment of ballistic missile defense systems, the North Korean issue, the Iraq issue, and even the anti-terrorism issue. However, the model of "harmony without difference, fighting without breaking" will still be the basic model and characteristic of the relationship between major powers for a long time to come.

(3) Developing economy and science and technology remains the core of national strategies of all countries in the world. There will be more intense economic competition between the United States and the European Union, Japan is trying to restore the momentum of economic development, Russia has established a national policy centered on economic development, and China will continue to maintain rapid growth. Countries pay more attention to science and technology and international market competition. Although the United States is no longer satisfied with only competing with other big countries economically, it is trying to stimulate domestic economic growth by launching foreign wars. However, because its war policy is resisted by other countries, the contradiction between the United States and most countries in the world is developing, and its attempt to stimulate domestic economic recovery through war will not be realized. The world pattern of 2 1 century still depends on the comprehensive national strength contest with economic and scientific and technological strength as the core.

(4) The contradiction between North and South is more prominent, and the core is still the issue of economic development. After World War I, the contradiction between imperialist suzerain and colonial and semi-colonial countries, with the rise of national liberation movement and the birth of a large number of nation-states after World War II, has been generally resolved at the level of political struggle. The resulting North-South contradiction mainly focuses on economic development, especially in developing countries. The fundamental task is to get rid of poverty and take off the label of backwardness. After decades, developing countries have made brilliant achievements through their efforts, but in the whole world economy, most developing countries are still poor, and development issues are urgently put on the priority agenda of developing countries. People's thoughts are changing and developing, which has become the mainstream in developing countries.

All of the above shows that despite the ups and downs of the international situation, the theme of the times of peace and development has not changed. Overall peace and local wars, overall relaxation and local tension, overall stability and local turmoil are the basic trends of the development of the international situation at present and in the future. The international environment facing China is still that opportunities outweigh challenges.

Section II International Strategic Pattern

I. Overview of the international strategic pattern

The international strategic pattern refers to the basic structure of relations between major countries or regions in the world in a certain period of time. It is the overall framework of the international strategic environment, showing the distribution, combination and contrast of world forces. In the international strategic pattern, countries and regions with strong military strength and political influence play a major and leading role in world affairs, and are usually called "poles" or "power centers".

The pattern of international strategic pattern is determined by "power contrast". Due to the formation and changes of new forces in various historical periods, the dominant "power center" has also changed, thus forming a unipolar pattern, a bipolar pattern and a multipolar pattern. The international strategic pattern is different from the ever-changing international strategic situation, and it has relative stability in the corresponding historical period. The alternation of the old and new strategic patterns usually occurs after the violent social unrest in major countries in the world, and its fundamental reason lies in the continuous development and change of the basic contradictions in the world. The truly international strategic pattern of world significance was formed and developed on the basis of the development of modern capitalism. /kloc-After the 0/9th century, European powers ruled and influenced vast areas of the world, forming an international strategic pattern centered on Europe. The characteristic of this pattern is that several big countries all want to compete for hegemony in Europe and the world, and the internal competition among big countries has developed rapidly, which led to two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. The "Yalta System" established after World War II changed the old world pattern centered on Europe and established an international strategic pattern dominated by the United States and the Soviet Union.

At the end of 1980s, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and the Yalta system led by the United States and the Soviet Union completely collapsed. Due to the rapid economic rise of Japan, Germany and Western Europe, after the Gulf War, America's "unipolar" world pattern plan went bankrupt. With the great turmoil, division and reorganization of the world situation, the international strategic pattern has begun to develop in the direction of multipolarization. It can be believed that a new multipolar international strategic pattern with multiple power centers as the basic structure is taking shape.

Second, the basic characteristics of today's world pattern

(1) A vested interest group composed of a few western developed countries, relying on its powerful comprehensive strength, dominates and uses existing international rules to protect and expand its vested interests. The objective consequence of the end of the Cold War is that for the first time in the history of the world, such a vast and relatively unified market has emerged, and the main global forces have such a broad and stable vested interest. There has been a situation that unless there is internal division, there will be no challengers in a decade or two, so that some people claim that freedom, democracy and market economy are the only feasible choices, and history begins to end with the victory of western values and systems.

(2) The United States is the most influential and aggressive force in this group of countries with vested interests. At the same time, the overall strength of Europe is also rapidly improving. The understanding of American hegemony must be based on the developed countries as an interest group. In other words, the United States is only a part of the whole western world, and this is the source of its influence. It is in this sense that the choice of Europe is particularly worthy of attention.

(3) In terms of the establishment and implementation of international rules, it is obviously characterized by regionality and diversity, and it has begun to show the trend of combining North America, Europe and Asia at the same time. In terms of depth and breadth, behind the intensification of regional integration lies the motivation of all major forces to consolidate and expand their sphere of influence and instill rules conducive to their resistance to competition outside the region. Finally, although the vast number of developing countries have a strong desire to establish a more rational new international political and economic order, and occupy an advantageous position in individual fields, such as Russian military strength, oil resources in Middle East countries, population size of China, etc., on the whole, most of them are recipients of the current unfair international rules and the mode of production and lifestyle set by developed countries, and their interests or losses are quite different, so they still need to take collective actions to seek common interests.

The economic globalization led by developed countries has spawned a new pattern of international division of labor in the world. Economic globalization is mainly reflected in the changes of international trade, direct investment and technology diffusion in depth, breadth and quantity. Developing countries benefit from technology diffusion and market opening in developed countries, and the application and diffusion of new technologies are always accompanied by large-scale trade and investment growth. In this process, the human capital of many developing countries has also been accumulated.

Experience shows that there is a positive correlation between the improvement of a country's economic openness and its per capita national income growth. It is true that the experience of developed countries and some developing countries supports the view that "* * * will win". However, while globalization provides the world with a chance to win, it also challenges developing countries to fall into the trap of international division of labor. In the whole international division of labor chain, developed countries have occupied the market of products and services with high added value and high technology content by virtue of their advantages or opportunities in capital, science and technology, talents, marketing and consumption methods, while most developing countries are at the end of the international division of labor chain and become the providers of labor-intensive products and services with low added value and low technology content in the global market. With the rapid development of information and communication technology, there is an obvious "digital divide" in different countries or economies in acquiring information and communication technology and using the Internet to carry out various business activities. In other words, most of the benefits of globalization are obtained by developed countries, while developing countries can only get a small part of them. Moreover, it is this small part of income that leads to fierce competition among developing countries. They compete to offer various preferential conditions, such as tax incentives, promise to open the domestic market to the maximum extent, promise to abide by the strict economic rules formulated by developed countries, and even make political concessions.

The vast number of developing countries have begun to unite to safeguard their own interests, but there are still many obstacles to overcome in order to truly synthesize a force. Generally speaking, developing countries share common interests, and the latter creates conditions for them to safeguard their own interests through cooperation. However, we also need to see that common interests are only necessary conditions for cooperation, not sufficient conditions. Considering that there are too many developing countries, countries have different interests due to their different levels of development and natural environment, and the sharing and enjoyment of the costs and benefits of collective action are often unequal, coupled with the differentiated policies of developed countries, it is difficult for many developing countries to form vested interest groups or international forces, so they are often at a disadvantage in the negotiation process of formulating international rules. In short, successful cooperation among developing countries is often partial and temporary. The conditions for them to unite and truly become a force to be reckoned with in the world pattern are not yet ripe.

The "bipolar" pattern of vested interests in developed countries began to appear, and the trend of world multipolarization was obvious. In a sense, the differences between the United States and Europe are profound and difficult to bridge. They have different routes and ideas in building the future world order, and they have fierce competition in the currency field. But the key point is that the way the United States promotes globalization is tantamount to subverting European production methods, lifestyles and values. Europe is reforming itself, but this does not mean that it fully agrees with the United States. It should be noted that the widening gap between the comprehensive strength of the United States and the European Union has stopped. Compared with the United States, Europe is more independent. Europe needs the help and support of the United States far less than the United States needs Europe. At least Europe no longer needs the American umbrella to meet its own defense needs. In terms of population, output, trade, manufacturing and so on, in a word, in terms of market size, the EU has surpassed the United States. With the establishment of the euro and the unified central banking system, the gap between Europe and the United States in the allocation and enjoyment of global financial resources in the once weak areas, that is, the world currency and financial markets, has also been greatly narrowed. The operation and expansion modes of the euro zone and the European Union, as well as their overall attitudes and methods in handling international disputes (although there are differences among European countries), have greatly contributed to the accumulation of their "soft power", which shows that the unilateralism pursued by the United States is out of date or "helpless". Even from the perspective of cooperation and competition between Europe and America, a multipolar world has actually emerged. In the long run, the pole that is most likely to be on an equal footing with Europe and the United States in the future is Asia, in which China, Japan and South Korea are in a key position.

Global issues and global governance issues are more severe and urgent than ever before, and they need and must be solved through coordination and cooperation among as many countries as possible.

Global problems mainly refer to those long-term and universal problems involving the well-being of all mankind, which can be roughly classified into the following six categories: 1. Establish and implement trade and investment rules; 2. The global financial system is stable; 3. Transnational crime in the form of terrorism, corruption, money laundering and illegal immigration; 4. Human health, especially the prevention and control of infectious diseases such as AIDS and the management of genetically modified organisms; 5. Environment and resources, including climate, pollution, biodiversity and tropical rain forest protection; Security includes preventing regional conflicts, multilateral "peacekeeping" and controlling weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. What is particularly worth mentioning here are two long-term factors that affect the global pattern: global governance and related immigration policies and population issues. All countries need to contribute to the provision of global public goods. But it is difficult to find an effective way to achieve this goal.

Today's superpower, the United States, while enjoying hegemonic interests, has failed to fulfill its obligation to provide global public goods fairly and fully. Almost all global governance institutions are facing the problems of lack of legitimacy, transparency and weak sense of responsibility. Today, factors of production such as capital, technology and management knowledge can flow freely across borders, except for the free flow of labor. Many fanatics of free market principles have also avoided the idea of letting labor flow freely on this planet. The obstruction of the free flow of labor force implies the limitations of economic globalization at a deeper level. At the same time, Europe, Japan and other developed countries have begun to step into an aging society, and absorbing a large number of immigrants has become a very realistic problem facing these countries. The social, political and economic impacts brought about by a large number of immigrants entering developed countries will inevitably affect the foreign policies of these countries and even the world pattern.