Q: What is the relationship between war and population?

Malthus' population theory is the most appropriate way to explain the frequent peasant wars in China's history.

At the end of the Western Han Dynasty, the population of China was about 60 million, and there was chaos in the middle. After thousands of years of evolution, after the founding of the Ming Dynasty, Zhu Yuanzhang checked his household registration. In the twenty-sixth year of Hongwu, the population of China recovered to more than 65 million, which shows that China can support so many people under the condition that the two major agricultural factors, climate and land, remain unchanged. exceed

With a certain base, the peasant war will rise and adjust. However, due to the introduction and popularization of high-yield crops such as corn, potato and sweet potato in the late Ming Dynasty, the population deformity in China increased, especially these high-yield crops could be planted in hilly areas, which greatly increased the cultivated land. At the same time, the Qing dynasty expanded its territory, which eventually increased its arable land by 10 times compared with the previous dynasty. As a result, the population of the Qing Dynasty reached a historical peak, reaching more than 400 million before the Opium War. Some scholars believe that Hongyang Uprising has little to do with foreign colonial invasion, and history cannot be assumed. However, these scholars believe that even if the Opium War did not happen, Hongyang Uprising would still happen. In fact, the population problem in the Qing Dynasty has affected the social order in the later period of Kanggan prosperous period. As soon as Jiaqing took office, he faced peasant uprisings in various places, such as An Baili Uprising, Heaven and Earth Uprising and Tian Li Uprising. Therefore, the peasant uprising needs two preconditions: first, two or three hundred years of peace will make the population reach the limit that agriculture can bear. Secondly, large-scale natural disasters suddenly appeared, which became the last straw to crush the camel of the old agricultural order in China.

Unfortunately, the rulers can't find the logical relationship among population pressure, ruling crisis and social crisis. If found, Malthus will first appear in China, not Britain. A few decades before the Opium War, thomas malthus, a British priest, was worried that the population would pose a threat to mankind, so he called on the British people to pay attention to morality-marrying late, keeping chastity before marriage, and limiting the frequency of cohabitation between husband and wife. In fact, Malthus' appeal in Britain is as absurd as that in China, because the historical development before and after proves that Malthus' worry is totally unnecessary. On the contrary, many European countries, including Britain, are now worried about negative population growth, especially France. The government even thinks that a French woman loves the French nation when she gives birth. If Malthus' appeal is ridiculous, then in the face of the irrational population growth caused by the situation of early marriage and early childbearing, unfilial birth of three sons, many children and grandchildren, and three wives and four concubines, there is no scholar like Malthus in China who is very sad. The population problem was discovered by China Kangxi, who thought that "although the registered permanent residence has increased, the cultivated land has not increased", Records of the Holy Father of Qing Dynasty, 240, but a wise man like him has no choice but to lament "always worrying" and Kangxi's Note compiled by the First Historical Archives of China. When Qianlong was in office, he also learned to look like his grandfather. "I am very worried about this." Complete Poems and Poems of Aristocratic Families and Four Poems of Imperial Family, Volume 93. Just when Emperor Qianlong was worried, there was a scholar named Hong in Qing Dynasty who was also worried, so he was called Malthus of China. The problem is that Malthus of China can still come up with brilliant ideas that can lead to fertility growth. His measures include reclamation, immigration, tax reduction, prevention of land merger, hard work and plain living, and opening warehouses to help the people. In a word, these wisest emperors and princes will never think of the road of limiting birth.

China's population problem unfortunately verified Malthus' theory. When the population reaches a certain limit, disasters such as war and plague will become the last resort to reduce the population, and poverty will become the inevitable fate of all farmers in China.

The ancient peasants rebelled, but they blamed their poverty on the incompetence of corrupt officials and emperors, and could not find the real reason. Today, historians in China are generally still accustomed to finding the cause of the peasant war politically. Although politics is one reason, it is not all or even the primary reason. For the traditional farmers in China, the terrible thing is not to be a long-term laborer or a tenant farmer. The terrible thing is that no matter what you do, you still can't fill your stomach. From an economic point of view, population pressure first means a large number of redundant labor, and redundant labor means an increase in refugees and hungry people. Population pressure also means the depreciation of the labor force. Once the labor force depreciates, even if there are no natural and man-made disasters, there is still a crisis for long-term workers to maintain food and clothing. If we encounter natural and man-made disasters again, the life of tenant farmers will also become a problem. Rebellion is death, not rebellion is death. Farmers will choose the former, so war is inevitable. Therefore, the so-called class contradiction is firstly the contradiction between the expanding population and the limited land resources, secondly the social justice and uneven distribution, and thirdly the government's disposal of the hungry population. Just like the economic crisis in capitalist countries, if the government handles it properly, the crisis will pass, and if it is not handled properly, it will turn into a political crisis and a social crisis. After the economic crisis in 1930s, the social trends in Germany, Japan, Italy and the United States are the best examples. Unfortunately, the feudal government of China failed to discover the population problem, failed to solve the social justice problem, and lacked effective management and remedial measures for the impact of natural and man-made disasters on farmers, so the collapse of its dynasty was inevitable.