What are the statistical analysis of the economic benefits of import and export trade?

Comprehensive statistical analysis of balance of payments

Statistical analysis of import and export trade

Statistical Analysis of International Capital Flows

Statistical analysis of foreign debt

Statistical analysis of foreign exchange reserves

I. Balance of payments statistics

(A) the concept of balance of payments

Balance of payments is a comprehensive record of all foreign economic transactions between an economy (country or region) and other economies within a certain period (usually one year). Related concepts:

(1) transactions: all foreign economic transactions, including both transactions with and without foreign exchange receipts and payments.

(2) economy;

(3) Permanent residents and non-permanent residents. The balance of payments records the economic transactions between permanent residents and non-permanent residents of an economy.

(2) Balance of payments

1, concept

A comprehensive statistical report reflecting the economic exchanges between a country and other economies in the world recorded in currency in a certain period of time.

2. Compilation principles and accounting methods

Compilation principle: according to the double-entry bookkeeping principle of accounting. That is, with borrowing as a symbol, every international economic transaction is recorded on the principle of "there must be a loan if there is a loan, and there must be reciprocity if there is a loan". The borrower records the increase of assets and the decrease of liabilities, and the lender records the decrease of assets and the increase of liabilities. The account of each transaction is divided into debit and credit. Each transaction will generate a certain amount of debit and credit records.

Accounting rules:

1. All items that generate domestic foreign exchange income are also called positive items, which are credited and recorded as "ten" (generally omitted).

2. Any item that causes domestic foreign exchange expenditure, also called negative item, shall be debited to "I"; In principle, the total debits and credits of all items in the balance of payments are always equal, that is, balanced, based on the date of ownership change, so it is called balance sheet.

3. Composition and calculation

Components: current account, capital and financial account, reserve assets, net errors and omissions. (According to the fifth edition of Balance of Payments Manual published by the International Monetary Fund 1993)

(1) Current account: including goods and services, income and current transfer.

A. goods and services: including goods and services.

Goods: exports are credited and imports are debited.

Services: Creditors represent income and debits represent expenses.

B. Income: including employee salary and investment income.

Employee's remuneration: refers to the income earned and repatriated by China individuals working abroad (less than one year), and the wages and benefits paid by China to foreign employees in China (less than one year).

Investment income: including profit and interest income from direct investment, reinvestment income and securities investment income (dividends, interest, etc.). ) and other investment income (interest).

C. Current transfer: including remittance, free donation and compensation, including goods and funds. The lender provides free transfer to China on behalf of foreign countries, and the borrower reflects China's free transfer to foreign countries.

(2) Capital and financial accounts: including capital accounts and financial accounts.

Capital account: including capital transfer, such as debt relief and immigration transfer.

B. Financial account: including all transactions of China in the change of ownership of external assets and liabilities. According to the investment mode, it is divided into direct investment, securities investment and other investments;

(3) Reserve assets: refers to foreign assets held by the central government, which can be directly used to balance international payments, directly used for market intervention, and affect the currency exchange rate. Including foreign exchange, currency gold, special drawing rights and the reserve position of the International Monetary Fund.

Special Drawing Rights (SDR): Book assets allocated by the International Monetary Fund to member countries according to their share, which can be used to repay the balance of payments deficit between the IMF and member governments.

Reserve position in the International Monetary Fund: refers to the assets in the general account of the International Monetary Fund that can be freely withdrawn and used by member countries.

(4) Net errors and omissions: items set to keep the balance between borrowers and borrowers. The balance of payments adopts double-entry bookkeeping method. Due to the different sources and time points of statistical data, the loans are not equal. If the total debit amount is greater than the total credit amount, the difference will be recorded in this item, otherwise, it will be debited.

Credit items in the balance of payments include: export of goods and services, income, free assistance of goods and funds received, increase of financial liabilities and decrease of financial assets.

Debit items in the balance of payments include: import of goods and services, income and expenditure, free assistance to provide goods and funds abroad, increase of financial assets and decrease of financial liabilities.

For example, the balance of payments of a country in the first half of the year is: the balance of trade account is 45.3 billion US dollars, the balance of labor account is 65.438+09.2 billion US dollars, the balance of unilateral transfer account is 7.6 billion US dollars, the balance of long-term capital account is 9.6 billion US dollars, and the balance of short-term capital account is 6.3 billion US dollars. Please calculate the current account balance and comprehensive balance of payments of this country, explain the balance of payments of this country, and analyze what will happen to the foreign exchange market of this country.

Solution: Current account balance = 453-192+76 = 33.7 billion USD.

Capital difference =-96+63 =-3.3 billion dollars

Comprehensive difference = 3.37-3.3 = $30.4 billion.

The overall balance of payments in this country is a surplus, which is mainly caused by the current account surplus.

(3) Balance of payments statistics

1, recording method.

(1) pricing. Adopt the unified pricing principle, that is, the pricing principle based on market price.

(2) time. The recording time shall be subject to the transfer of ownership.

(3) Conversion of different currencies. The monetary unit in China is the US dollar.

2. Sources of balance of payments statistics. Different countries adopt different methods in dividing statistical purposes and compiling data collection channels.

Recently, there are three compilation channels in the world:

(1) through the declaration system of European banks.

(2) Direct reporting by enterprises, such as Australia and New Zealand.

(3) Collecting data through banks, supplemented by enterprise surveys, Germany

(D) China's balance of payments statistics.

1, historical evolution

China's balance of payments has gone through three stages so far: (1) trial compilation stage. It is based on the statistical system of foreign exchange receipts and payments to prepare the balance of payments.

(2) Establish a statistical system and formally compile tables.

(3) Establish a declaration system.

2. China's current international balance of payments statistics reporting system.

(1) Declare the scope. All economic transactions between China residents and non-China residents. The meaning of China residents. (Page 170)

(two) the implementation of the transaction subject reporting system. Take a combination of regular declaration and annual declaration, mainly with bank declaration, supplemented by direct declaration by units and individuals. From the content point of view, it includes:

:: Through individual declarations by financial institutions;

* Direct reporting statistics of direct investment enterprises (quarterly);

* Statistics on external assets, liabilities and profits and losses of financial institutions (quarterly report);

* Statistics of foreign exchange receipts and payments of overseas account opening units (monthly report);

* Securities investment statistics (monthly report).

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