After the epidemic, rents in Shanghai have gone crazy and started to rise in retaliation. Is it worth pondering?

After the epidemic, rents in Shanghai have gone crazy and started to rise in retaliation. Is it worth pondering? The epidemic raged. In the first half of the year, Beijing's GDP decreased by 2.9%, while Shanghai's GDP growth rate decreased by 13.7%. In the past century, Beijing surpassed Shanghai for the first time and became the highest economic city in China. After the epidemic, Shanghai's rent actually rose in a crazy retaliatory way, which cast a shadow over Shanghai's strong recovery momentum. Then, is the retaliatory rise in Shanghai's soaring rents worth pondering?

I. Retaliatory Rebound Local media reported that Shanghai's governance of group renting houses promoted the general increase of rents, but in fact this was only one reason. I heard that houses in Shanghai rose by more than 30% and were immediately robbed. After Shanghai was unsealed, many netizens announced that they had been arbitrarily raised by the owners.

According to the statistical analysis of official website, affected by epidemic factors, the rental prices of first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai continued to fall in April and May. By the arrival of the graduation season in June, the demand for renting houses in some areas of Shanghai has increased abnormally, and some transactions have rebounded to a certain extent. Some black-hearted homeowners seem to see hope and prices have risen.

According to national data, in June, the average rent of newly listed properties in 65 cities nationwide only increased by 0.27% month-on-month, and Shanghai increased by 0.8% month-on-month. As for the reasons for the rise, experts went on in a daze: they said that rents are not only affected by supply and demand factors, but also have periodic changes, as well as the harm of consumers' ability to pay and income expectations. At this time, this theoretical discussion is actually useless, and it is not easy for authoritative experts to tell the truth.

As an economist said the other day, none of them has 500 thousand, which can surprise everyone. In fact, more than 99% people in our country can't afford 500 thousand cash. However, another reason analyzed by the official media is correct. Under the impact of the epidemic, some or even many pension real estate capital chains are broken.

In addition, the construction of affordable rental housing lags behind, which leads to the contradiction between supply and demand in the rental market. If this matter cannot be solved, it will probably become one of the biggest constraints on Shanghai's economic recovery. On the one hand, Shanghai warmly welcomes graduates to settle down, on the other hand, it has come to places where no one has lived. Probably everyone will. Leave the household registration, leave. That may not be the original intention of Shanghai to rob people.

Second, economic losses In the first half of the year, the epidemic was rampant. How much did Shanghai's economy lose? Can you recover in a short time? On July 18, Shanghai Statistics Bureau released all-round statistics for the first time, so let us find the answer.

According to the data released by Shanghai Statistics Bureau, the city's gross national product193.49 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 5.7% year-on-year. Experts believe that this experiment is unprecedented. In previous years, the only GDP decline in Shanghai was in 2020, at the beginning of the epidemic, only 2.6%.

In the second quarter of this year, Shanghai was hit hard by the epidemic, especially in April and May, when the static data management mode was enforced in the demonstration area, various production activities spread, and the theme activities of project investment, trading and import and export trade were greatly hurt. According to the announcement of Shanghai administrative organs, the local general public budget revenue in Shanghai decreased by more than 19%, the fixed investment 19.6%, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 16. 1%.

Naturally, this is not a long-term factor, but the short-term adverse impact of the epidemic on the economy should not be underestimated. Judging from the rebound trend, in June, the added value of Shanghai's industrial enterprises above designated size quickly broke through 13.9%, and the total import and export value dropped from 14. 1% to 9.6%, entering a V-shaped rebound. In the second quarter, the loss in Shanghai was also reflected in the high number of unemployed people. The average urban survey unemployment rate in Shanghai was 12.5%, which was 8.9% in the first half of the year. Ranked first in the country.

Third, the impact of the first anti-overtaking epidemic was unprecedented, and the economic losses caused by the suspension of China economic center Shanghai were incalculable. In the first half of 2022, Beijing's GDP was 654.38+093.52 billion, slightly exceeding Shanghai's 654.38+093.49 billion.

This may be the first time in a hundred years that Beijing's GDP is ahead of Shanghai. As the capital, Beijing is of course the economic core of China. More interestingly, Beijing is now making every effort to deconstruct the industrial chain and engage in reduced development.

China's economy was severely hit by the epidemic in April and 52 months. April is the darkest moment of this year's economy, and it gradually resumed work in May. Then, in June, it basically took a month to bring the GDP in the second quarter back to a positive growth position. It can be said that the economic resilience is very good. Although the growth rate was only 2.5% in the first half of the year, which is far from the overall target of 5.5% for the whole year, we stopped the downward trend of the economy.

At present, there are more than 3 million market players, manufacturers, roadside shops and private state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, which is the basis of Shanghai's development trend. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 95% in particular, are the support of Shanghai's development. Jilin province was also hit by the epidemic, with GDP falling by 6% year-on-year.

That's all. In the face of Shanghai's crazy retaliatory rent increase, we should pay attention and think deeply. The skyrocketing rent is an impact on tenants who rent locally. What do you think? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area for discussion.