Top Ten Predictions for Communications Development in the New Century

Because of the development of the communications industry, people have not only shortened the distance between each other, but the quality of work and life has also been greatly improved. It can be said that people have never enjoyed the convenience brought by the great changes in communication at any time like today. I believe we will have more surprises in the next century.

According to data, in the last year of this century, China’s fixed communication network and mobile communication network ranked second and third in the world respectively. In the next century, my country's communications industry will experience a leap from quantitative change to qualitative change. Information technology will become the most active and popular technology, and the information industry will also become the most dynamic sunrise industry.

The charm of the communications industry is not only that it has created a miracle of development speed, but also that once any new conjecture is generated in the human mind, it will quickly become a reality, and the time interval will become increasingly long. The shorter.

At the turn of the old and new centuries, 11 senior journalists in the communications industry boldly predicted the major changes that may occur in my country's communications industry in the first year of the new century, hoping to reveal some future development trends of the communications industry. , and the changes that may be brought about by the development of communication technology in people's lives in the next century.

One of the 3G battles will come to an end

By the end of next year, the largest and most fiercely competitive market competition in the global communications market in recent years will enter the final decisive battle, and It is possible to see the first resolution, which is the battle for the 3G (third generation mobile communications) standard. As a broadband mobile communication, 3G turns mobile phones into future communication terminals integrating voice, image, data transmission and many other applications with a transmission rate of 2 megabits per second.

There are currently three third-generation mobile communication standards that mobile communication operators can choose from: WCDMA supported by several major European manufacturers, CDMA2000 supported by the United States, and another one developed with the participation of China. TD-SCDMA. Which 3G standard mobile communication operators will ultimately choose will affect the general direction of global mobile communication development in the next few years, and will also affect the future.

According to all parties, each of the three standards has its own characteristics and advantages. WCDMA can smoothly transition the widely used GSM to 3G through intermediate technologies such as GPRS; CDMA2000 can realize the transition from existing narrowband CDMA to 3G with minimal investment; and TD-SCDMA can realize a smooth transition directly from GSM to 3G. .

Although they are all good, in front of a single communication operator, there is only one choice - each mobile communication operator will only use one 3G standard to build its network and put it into commercial operation.

Early next year, Japan's DoCoMo will be the first to launch a 3G commercial trial network, and it has chosen WCDMA. Other standards will also desperately look for opportunities to achieve their "destination." Let’s not talk about it far, just talk about the Chinese market. Next year will be a year of competition among the three major standards. Although the number of domestic mobile communication operators is likely to increase next year, the chances of all three standards being adopted are slim. In other words, among the three standards, it is very likely that one will not be favored and will be forced to lose the vast Chinese market. Because no matter in terms of economy, future market competition, or even terminal development, too many standards will do more harm than good.

WCDMA has seized the market opportunity. CD?MA2000 will undoubtedly gain a foothold in the United States, its birthplace. If TD-SCDMA wants to gain a foothold, it must first be adopted in China. This is why it is seizing the time to seize the market opportunity. The main reason for progress.

No matter what, by the end of next year, the fate of several major 3G standards in the Chinese market will begin to take shape.

Then again, although the prospects of 3G are bright, it will still take several years before it can be truly popularized for commercial use. What will really meet users next year will be the "second and a half generation", that is, transitional technologies such as GPRS. Next year GPRS mobile phones will be a new hot spot in the market.

Part 2: Mobile phone products are becoming polarized

The miracle of China’s rapid development of mobile communications this year will continue next year: mobile phone users may exceed 100 million.

The giants will start a tug of war: Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, and Siemens may reshuffle the market structure; the second legion will fight more intensely: Alcatel, Philips, Mitsubishi, Sony, and other Japanese and Korean brands will continue to fight; domestic brands will continue to advance: Konka, TCL, and Waveguide may win. But in any case, the demand for 40 million units next year will enable every manufacturer to achieve great development.

Next year, the mobile phone market products will become polarized: high-end will lead the trend, and low-end will become popular.

With the opening and popularization of GPRS networks of China Mobile and China Unicom, mobile data capabilities have been greatly improved, and mobile services such as GPRS, WAP, and SMS have become more usable. On the other hand, plans such as Monternet In-depth development will lead to richer mobile Internet applications. Leading mobile phone manufacturers will launch high-end GPRS mobile phones that are suitable for mobile Internet applications.

The growth of 30 million mobile phone users next year will truly usher in the era of mass consumption of mobile phones. The lower limit of the mobile phone market continues to fall. Low-end mobile phones that are economical, practical, excellent in appearance, and rich in functions will become the mainstream of the market and will become the key to determining the market share of mobile phone manufacturers. Mobile phone manufacturers will launch a variety of new products targeted at this market. Practical functions and beautiful appearance will be the unique characteristics of products in this market.

Third operators aim at broadband networks

At present, the high-speed backbone networks of major operators have already reached scale, including China Railway Communications and Radio and Television, which will join the operation market next year. Ranging from 2.5G to 40G, such abundant bandwidth resources prompt operators to focus on the construction of broadband multi-service access networks next year, while traditional narrowband voice access networks will become antiques in the new century.

In economically developed cities, it is basically possible to extend optical fiber to communities, buildings and roadsides. This will include two markets with huge potential: business users and individual users. Business users will be able to enjoy 10M-100M bandwidth and corresponding one-stop services. Coupled with the maturity of supporting value-added services such as IDC and ASP, it is time for the large-scale application of the B-B business model. The increasing number of individual users can not only fully experience the fun of surfing the Internet with bandwidths up to 1.5M, but can also choose a variety of Internet access methods and services, such as ADSL, HFC, cablemodem, etc. It is expected that this group of people will account for about 20% of the domestic Internet users.

The improvement of the level of facilities will promote the further prosperity of the domestic Internet economy, and also make Chinese stocks a hope of rescue for the depressed Nasdaq. However, the new economy may not have time to take into account economically underdeveloped areas.

Part 4: Consumers are truly the “gods”

If you predict what changes will occur in the communications field next year? I think next year the mobile Internet may be able to get out of the embarrassing situation of being "too high-minded". With the opening of the GPRS network, people using wireless terminals to access the Internet will no longer be a "paper talk". Moreover, people's concepts will also change by then. That is, Internet access through mobile phones and wireless terminals is not necessarily the core of mobile Internet, but the ability to provide information services anytime and anywhere will become the focus of the development of mobile Internet. Many imaginary services will become a reality.

I also hope that Bluetooth technology will move from hype to mature applications. It will be "wireless bound" within 100 meters to ten meters. How comfortable this will be. Bluetooth headsets will make it easier for you to answer calls while driving, so you don't have to worry. The police will reach out and tell you to pull over; the Bluetooth device will allow you to decorate without having to worry about how to arrange the wires for home appliances, audio, air conditioners, etc. without destroying the overall atmosphere of the room.

I think as China's accession to the WTO becomes a reality, the competitive situation will allow consumers to truly experience the taste of "God": not only a reduction in tariffs, but more importantly, a complete change in services.

Part 5 Domestic mobile phones need to turn around

2001 will be a critical year for domestic mobile phones. What strategies can domestic mobile phones adopt to break through the siege under the pressure of powerful "foreign brands"? It requires a high degree of wisdom from these domestic manufacturers.

Domestic manufacturers themselves said that they hope to follow the old path of the color TV industry. First enter the industry through "OEM", establish a brand, and then gradually master the core technology in order to achieve a comprehensive breakthrough.

But compared with the color TV industry, mobile phones have higher technological content, faster market changes, and greater market elimination.

What is the breakthrough point for domestic mobile phones? It should and can only be "price". Although it seems a bit impossible now: the production scale is small and the components are controlled by others. Of course, there is no condition to launch a "price war". But making profits "thin" and forcing foreign mobile phones to give up competition in the low-end market and shift to the high-tech, high-profit mobile phone market is the opportunity and way out for domestic mobile phones.

Relevant national departments, including the Ministry of Information Industry, have a caring attitude towards domestic mobile phones. This year, the state has allocated 1.4 billion yuan from mobile phone network access fees to support the development of domestic mobile phone services. The state has withdrawn 5% from the initial installation fee of fixed-line phones for five consecutive years, which is also a special fund to support the research and industrialization of domestic mobile phones.

It is reported that at the CCTV 2001 advertising bidding meeting held in November this year, 9 domestic mobile phone manufacturers participated in this advertising bidding war. Next year, Chinese people can watch it on TV again. It’s time for the advertising war for domestic mobile phones. 6. Next year will be a "transition year" for the information society

2001 will be a "transition year" for the information society to move out of the "primary stage". One of its signs is that the era when PC was king is over, and digital is rapidly penetrating into us in the form of chips, allowing all-encompassing and diverse information to have a unified processing and dissemination format; second, with the fixed and wireless networks With the development of transmission technology, the speed of information transmission has begun to enter the "critical speed" of the information society. We will feel that computers can access the Internet and download images faster, and the speed bottleneck of wireless Internet access on mobile phones will also be broken; thirdly, with the promotion of wireless Internet and Marked by the emergence of various applications, the era of mobile Internet will begin. The mobile phone in our hands will not only be a "phone", but the Internet in our pocket, a comprehensive collection of information around us.

Part 7: The mobile phone changed my life

One morning in November 2001, I drove out of the community. Taking advantage of the traffic jam, I used the calendar on my mobile phone to check the day's schedule. Then I went online to browse the weather forecast for the day and my own e-mail, and found that there were three more unread emails. One was a photo of his son's full moon sent by a classmate who immigrated to Canada, one was a confirmation letter from the insurance company calling for premium payment, and another was a notification that the president of a certain company would accept an exclusive interview with me, which was scheduled for that afternoon.

In order to relax my nervous mood, I put on Bluetooth headphones and listened to MP3 music on my mobile phone. GPRS guarantees that my phone is "always online". When the car arrived at Guang'anmen, the mobile phone beeped. It turned out to be an emergency message from the "Transportation and Travel Network": on the Yuetan Bridge from south to north, a serious car accident occurred two minutes ago, and the vehicle congestion was serious. Vehicles heading towards Xizhimen should detour to the subway or West Railway Station. After hearing the news, I quickly drove from the Tianning Temple overpass to the Qianmen direction. Intense work makes time fly by. After a quick lunch, I remembered that the premium had not been paid, so I took out my mobile phone and went to online banking. I quickly completed the transfer and paid the water, electricity and mobile phone bills for this month. I arrived at the company on time in the afternoon to start the exclusive interview. At this time, the mobile phone became an interview machine. Using digital technology, the mobile phone can record for up to 6 hours. After successfully completing the interview, as soon as I walked out of the hotel door, my phone beeped again. It turned out that my friend Mr. Li was nearby. After meeting, we were planning to find a quiet place to have a chat, but neither of us was familiar with the area. "Yes!" I took out my mobile phone and checked it through "asking for directions". We went straight to the elevator and sat in the revolving restaurant on the top floor of the hotel. During the conversation, I converted the recording of the afternoon interview into text and sent it to the newspaper's mailbox through "Yimeier".

The eighth cable TV is expected to be connected to the Internet

Whether cable TV can be "connected to the Internet" has always been a major event that many netizens are looking forward to. They are currently unable to enjoy the broadband of intelligent communities. For Internet users who bring speed and convenience, cable TV is the best shortcut to increase bandwidth and improve Internet speed.

More importantly, the addition of the radio and television network has created a relatively obvious competitive situation for existing operators, especially China Telecom, making it possible to significantly reduce Internet access costs. Due to well-known reasons, the issue of cable TV "connecting to the Internet" gradually cooled down after a period of excitement, but recently there have been signs of "recovery". Therefore, reporters boldly predicted that cable TV "connecting to the Internet" is expected to become a reality next year. . The "first glimmer of light" that reporters have seen recently comes from the contract between AsiaInfo and Sichuan Radio and Television not long ago, which resulted in the birth of China's first billing system for radio and television networks. It marked the beginning of the radio and television network's entry into the Internet market. Subsequently, the head of the relevant department of the Ministry of Information Industry said in an interview with reporters that the radio and television network’s entry into the Internet business was “in sight.” The person in charge believes that regarding the issue of the radio and television network entering the Internet field, specific issues are still being coordinated, but resources must be shared among all, and the cable TV network, Internet, and telephone network must be interconnected. According to industry insiders, efforts to connect cable TV to the Internet have never stopped. The Ministry of Information Industry has previously emphasized the need to distinguish between operating network companies and television stations as news units. Not long ago, the broadband interactive TV network launched by China Shengye in Fujian was regarded as another attempt by radio and television to enter the Internet because it has multimedia, e-commerce and other businesses. At the same time, the radio and television departments are also exploring their own business operation models, and the services they provide will be different from existing operators.

Ninth chip manufacturing industry will slow down next year

Global chip manufacturers have tasted the joy of a bumper harvest this year, but will face a worse situation next year. According to the forecast of the International Semiconductor Equipment Raw Materials Organization, chip sales will only grow by 19% next year, and the growth rate of chip equipment revenue will also be only 10%. This year, semiconductor equipment revenue has increased by 85% compared with last year, and integrated circuit (IC) sales have increased by 40% compared with last year. From a development perspective, there is no doubt that the chip industry has a bright future. However, the excess production capacity in this stage caused by the demand for chips in the previous stage will inevitably lead to a decline in consumption capacity in the next stage. Therefore, it can be expected that the chip industry will slow down in 2001 and the next stage of recovery will Maybe have to wait until the second half of 2002. In fact, this law does not only exist in the chip industry. The cycle from demand to surplus and then to demand is extremely normal. It is just that the chip industry will catch up with the surplus next year. When the next recovery stage comes, the Asian market will occupy an important position. Not only will it become the market with the largest demand, but its production capacity cannot be underestimated. This year, the chip production in Taiwan Province has increased by 61% compared with last year, reaching 21.7 billion US dollars. Text/"China Business News" Liu Yanzhi acts as a translator on the phone

Dial a transoceanic phone call and talk to the other party in your own mother tongue without any barriers. In the next century, this conjecture may become a reality, with seven international language telephones The simultaneous speech translation project will be officially launched next year. At the end of this century, the Institute of Automation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences joined the international telephone simultaneous translation project in seven languages, and made new progress in participating in international cooperative research on speech translation technology. Realizing free global communication based on automatic translation technology has always been a dream of mankind. In 1991, The International Conference on Speech Translation Research (C-STAR) was announced. In 1996, the core members of the organization had expanded to six countries: Japan, the United States, Germany, Italy, South Korea, and France. In October this year, the State Key Laboratory of Pattern Recognition of the Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences officially became the seventh core member, and Chinese was also included in the family of international speech translation. The international telephone simultaneous translation project in seven languages ??will be officially launched in 2001 and will end in 2004. Utilizing the public telephone network system and the Internet, it is possible to carry out scene conversations between humans of different languages ??during travel through mobile phones, telephones, computer terminals and other devices. I believe that one day in the next century, language will no longer be a barrier to communication, and the phone can serve as your translator.