Population increase

I don’t know what you want to know!

On which day the global population will actually reach 7 billion, and where the real "7 billionth person" will be born, these are only symbolic. However, the rapid increase in population has put pressure on the world's natural resources and ecological environment, and brought real challenges to the development and stability of various countries, which need to be properly addressed by all mankind. As United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said, the milestone of 7 billion people "is a challenge, an opportunity, and a clarion call for us all to take action."

One billion more people in 2012

The day when the world’s population reaches 7 billion is only 12 years away from the “6 billion population day”. In 1999, Adnan Mevic, who was born in Bosnia and Herzegovina, was designated as the "6 billionth person", and the commemorative ceremony held for this purpose is still vivid in my mind.

If you think of population growth as a ticking clock, the clock has sped up significantly in the 20th century, with the intervals between adding one billion people getting shorter and shorter. The long-term relative peace, popularization of science and technological progress since the mid-20th century have led to higher living standards, better health, longer life expectancy, and accelerated population growth.

Statistics from the United Nations Population Fund show that it took more than a century for the world's population to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion, and 32 years to grow from 2 billion to 3 billion. Since 1987, every 12 years That’s an increase of 1 billion.

Due to the popularization of culture and the improvement of women’s social status, the global average fertility rate of women of childbearing age has dropped significantly in the 21st century, but the huge population base will still drive the “population clock” forward rapidly.

Population growth is extremely uneven

As the world population reaches 7 billion, the growth of the world's population is extremely uneven. The population in developed countries has either stopped growing or is growing slowly, while in many developing countries Population growth is still rapid. A large part of the 78 million new people added every year is in the poorest countries.

Currently, fertility rates in developed countries are well below replacement levels. From 2005 to 2010, the total fertility rate in developed countries has dropped to 1.6, with 14 countries below 1.3. In a stable population with an average childbearing age of 30, a total fertility rate of 1.3 means that the population size will decrease by 1.5% every year, and the population size will be halved in 45 years.

The situation in developing countries is completely different. According to the United Nations' latest population forecast, the world's population will increase by about 3 billion by the end of this century, of which 97% will be in developing countries.

It may fall back after reaching a peak of 10 billion

Of the 7 billion people in the world, 1.8 billion are young people aged 10 to 24. It is predicted that if the current fertility rate remains unchanged, the world's population will exceed 9 billion by the middle of this century, and then the population growth will slow down and exceed 10 billion by the end of this century. Then as the economies of high-fertility countries mature, the population will gradually fall back.

This statistic seems to verify the "development is freedom" theory of the 1998 Nobel Prize winner and British economist Amartya Sen: that is, investing money to improve the economic conditions of the poor and help When economically underdeveloped countries achieve development, when people's living standards improve and become smarter, they will spend more time studying and thinking instead of looking for food and water, and will automatically have fewer children and take better care of their children. .

Resource tensions have further intensified

The surge in population means a surge in human demand for natural resources. The supply of food, water resources, and livable land will be under greater pressure, and these demands will It will put greater pressure on the ecological environment; the surge in population also means a surge in human demand for social resources. Issues such as education, medical care, employment, and elderly care will test every country.

In recent years, the population growth rate in industrial countries has become increasingly stable, but the population growth rate in developing countries has continued unabated and is expected to become the "main force" in global population growth in the near future. In Africa and India, excessive population growth is even greater.

The land and water resources allocated to each person will be reduced, and the problems of pension and medical insurance will become more serious. Poor people who rely on natural resources will suffer even more because they cannot compete with the rich. In the UK, people believe that "7 billion people day" is a sign of further intensification of scarcity of earth's resources.

How many more people can the earth support?

How many people can the earth support? According to scientists' calculations, based on living standards, if every person on the earth can enjoy the diet of ordinary people in developed countries, the maximum capacity of the earth is only 2 billion people; and if calculated based on the food standards necessary to maintain the minimum daily life, the earth can Carrying 12 billion people. If it continues to grow uncontrollably, the earth will be overwhelmed and mankind will encounter devastating disasters.

In 1798, the famous population expert Malthus said that if the population reaches a certain critical point, mankind will face crises such as great famine.

However, due to the development of scientific and technological capabilities and industrial and agricultural levels, the global food crisis predicted by Malthus did not occur on a large scale. In the 1960s and 1970s, the "green revolution" in the agricultural field achieved a substantial increase in food production. However, realizing the "second green revolution" will be even more difficult. Some experts said, "The biggest problem is that we have approached the limit of plants' photosynthesis capabilities."

Some practical difficulties also include agricultural input costs, which many farmers in poor areas cannot afford.

However, some scientists are optimistic. Sir John Sulston of the University of Manchester, who leads a Royal Society global population research team dedicated to finding ways for humans to "not just survive but thrive", has won a prize for his work in the field of genetics. 2002 Nobel Prize in Biology. But scientists say that doesn't mean the Earth's carrying capacity is unlimited. As the population increases, resources become less and less, environmental pollution becomes increasingly serious, and population problems become increasingly serious. (Comprehensive report by this newspaper)

Resolving doubts

The 7 billionth baby was born today?

At a rate of more than two newborns per second, the United Nations predicts that the global population will welcome its 7 billionth member on October 31. The United Nations claims that its statistical method is the "gold standard." Of course, doubts always exist: some people estimate that the 7 billionth person was born a few weeks ago, and some speculate that it will take several months to see this person. In fact, the 7 billionth person is just a concept, or a symbol. But the appearance of symbols is always an opportunity for thinking.

The golden algorithm has an error of half a year

The United Nations Population Division estimates that the 7 billionth person will be born on October 31, and by the way, the 8 billionth person will be born on June 15, 2025. On the same day, the 10 billionth population will appear before 2100.

Although it claims that its demographic algorithm is the "gold standard", the Population Division admits that this statistical method still has an error of no more than 1%. Agence France-Presse commented that this small error, under the influence of a large base number, can advance or delay the birth of the 7 billionth person by half a year.

According to the estimated time of the United Nations, many countries have begun to prepare to wait for "7 billion babies" in their country's large and small delivery rooms on the 31st. As for United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, he is not prepared to hold the baby because he said that the child's birthday is a day that makes people unhappy. He told Time magazine that whether the baby is a boy or a girl, "he (she) will be born into a world of contradictions." The so-called contradictory world is one where "there is plenty of food, but 1 billion people go to bed hungry every day"; it is "where many people live luxuriously, but many people are still struggling below the poverty line."

If you are not lucky, don’t take pictures

Back on October 12, 1999, the then United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan “designated” a baby born in Bosnia and Herzegovina as the world’s first child. 6 billion people. That "6 billion baby" is now 12 years old and no longer attracts attention from the outside world. Except for the photo of Annan holding him in the hospital still hanging on the wall at home, which can still be considered a blessing, his real world is far from lucky. For 12 years, he has lived in a slum in Sarajevo.

This year, the United Nations is no longer prepared to "designate" "7 billion babies" or allow Ban Ki-moon to take photos holding babies. "This is not a story about numbers, this is a story about humanity," Ban Ki-moon said in a speech at a school in New York a few days ago. "Seven billion people means the need for more food, more energy, more Opportunities for employment and education, more rights and more freedom for them to reproduce and raise future generations," Ban Ki-moon said. The concept of 7 billion is, "Everything that each of you can imagine, multiplied by seven billion times." . (According to Xinhua News Agency)

Expert interpretation

"Population challenges" are different

In the context of the world's population of 7 billion, if you look closely, “Every family has its own sutras that are difficult to recite,” and different countries face different “demographic challenges.” In developed countries such as Europe and Japan, declining fertility rates, aging populations, and labor shortages are challenges. In most developing countries, the huge population base and rapid growth are challenges. Food security, education, medical care, employment, etc. in various countries are facing great pressure.

Developed countries are worried about having fewer children

The demographic problems faced by developed countries are low fertility levels, slow population growth, and the trend of low birthrate and aging population. This will not only cause profound changes in family and social structures, but also affect economic and social development. At present, the countries with the most aging populations are Italy and Japan, with the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above exceeding 19%; followed by Greece, Germany, Spain, and Sweden. On average, the proportion of elderly people in developed countries has reached 15%, and this proportion is expected to double by 2050.

For a country, the intensification of population aging means that it needs to face new challenges, and the whole society needs to adapt. As there are fewer children and more elderly people, the number of kindergartens will decrease and the number of nursing homes will increase, and health services and facilities will have to be more geared toward the elderly.

Intensified aging will also lead to reduced production efficiency, difficulty in economic growth, difficulty in growing personal income and national fiscal revenue, while various expenditures related to aging continue to increase, leading to more and more serious problems. family and social burden.

At present, in developed countries with serious aging, pension expenditures have accounted for about 10% of GDP, and medical expenditures have also reached 10% of GDP. In some countries, such as the United States, medical expenditures even account for 10% of GDP. 15% of GDP. Overall, aging countries need to spend one-fifth to one-quarter of their annual increase in wealth on elderly care, which imposes a heavy burden on society.

When pension expenditures are difficult to meet through tax increases, either the retirement age needs to be extended, or pension benefits and medical benefits for the elderly need to be cut. Either method means a reduction in the welfare of the elderly. This will inevitably cause dissatisfaction among the elderly and even the whole society. For many developed countries, pension issues are becoming the trigger for various social conflicts.

In order to cope with aging, many developed countries have adopted policies to encourage childbirth, but unfortunately, these policies have had little effect. Therefore, many countries hope to alleviate the problem of population aging by relaxing immigration restrictions, thus forming a new wave of immigrants. Western developed countries have become the main recipients of immigrants in the world. Just as Europe's external population migration after the Industrial Revolution had a major impact on the world, the current migration from developing countries to developed countries will not only change the population structure and social structure of developed countries, but will also have consequences in the economic, political and other fields. important impact. Due to different cultural traditions, habits and values, there is a possibility of conflict or even confrontation between immigrants and original residents. At the same time, how immigrants integrate into local society and how they enjoy the same economic and social rights as locals are also issues that must be faced and solved.

Too Many Developing Countries

Unlike developed countries which have a wealthy but aging population, most developing countries have a young but poor population. At present, some developing countries have solved population and development problems relatively well, and China is a typical example. After the reform and opening up, China transformed from a poor country to a middle-income country in just over 30 years. Some other developing countries, such as India and Vietnam, are also growing at a relatively fast rate, and the world economic structure is also undergoing major changes.

However, in more developing countries, rapid population growth has affected economic development, led to serious unemployment problems, and even triggered social unrest. Many countries in West Asia and North Africa have been in turmoil this year. One of the important reasons is that the relationship between population and development has not been properly resolved. For example, Egypt's population was only 44 million in 1980, but now it has reached more than 84 million, half of whom are under the age of 25. In this regard, many countries in West Asia and North Africa are in a similar situation.

According to United Nations statistics, the population of West Asia and North Africa was approximately 230 million in 1980, which increased to 440 million in 2010, of which more than 50% were under the age of 24. A large number of young people need employment and development. If this basic problem is not solved well, coupled with corruption and the gap between rich and poor, it will easily lead to political instability. Therefore, properly handling the relationship between population and economic development has always been a major challenge that developing countries must face.

African countries have rapid population growth and are also the countries with the most prominent contradiction between population and development. Many countries are unable to provide even basic food and clothing, and malnutrition and hunger have become the biggest threats. Since last year, the "Horn of Africa" ??region, including Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda, has suffered from a drought rare in 60 years. Grain production has plummeted. In addition, grain reserves have been depleted and global grain prices have skyrocketed. , the "Horn of Africa" ??has fallen into a serious humanitarian crisis due to hunger.

The key to solving the problems faced by developing countries is to enhance development capabilities and achieve economic growth. To this end, developing countries must appropriately reduce the population growth rate and alleviate population pressure; at the same time, they must improve the quality of the population and increase investment in education and health.