Depth

Several new energy automobile industry chain enterprises in the global automobile market have smelled the business opportunities of electrification in the American market.

Yan Wenqian Bo Yan

The miracle didn't happen.

In Michigan, where Detroit, the core of the American automobile industry, is located, Biden won 16 key electoral votes by 2.796 million votes to 2.648 million votes to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 20 16 US presidential election.

By building so-called "blue walls" in rust belt states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Biden finally won 306 electoral votes in 165438+ 10/0/4 EST, beating Trump's 232 electoral votes. Theoretically, he will be the first on 202165438+1October 20th.

Return favor or double-edged sword?

Biden won in three rust belt battleground states dominated by automobile manufacturing, not only because Biden has the title of "the biggest car fan among presidential candidates in history". Biden's father worked in one of the largest Chevrolet dealers in his hometown of Delaware for a long time when he was young, and Biden himself was a big fan of Chevrolet Corvette.

More crucially, Biden has the official support of UAW, one of the largest trade unions in the United States. At the Milwaukee rally during the election campaign, UAW publicly expressed his gratitude to Biden for saving the American auto industry as vice president during the financial crisis ten years ago, and believed that if elected, Biden would be able to turn the tide again during his presidency in the next four years.

Although Trump said in his Gettysburg address in 20 16 that he would bring back 1 10,000 manufacturing jobs to the United States, in fact, as of February 2020, the number of manufacturing employees in Michigan was 623,700, while the peak at the end of 20 18 was 634,200.

For the three traditional American automakers, if Biden is elected, it means that the political pressure from Washington has plummeted.

During his tenure, Trump has been committed to forcing automakers to move their factories back to the United States through administrative means. The White House not only imposed tariffs of 10% and 25% on parts made in China, but also replaced the original North American trade agreement with a tripartite agreement between the United States, increasing the sales ratio of parts made in the United States from 62.5% to 75%.

Compared with Trump, who is keen on fighting trade wars, Biden does not advocate trade protectionism and has not expressed plans to further escalate Sino-US friction for the time being. With the possibility of phasing out some tariffs, Detroit's three trans-Pacific supply chains will have a chance to resume smooth flow.

The welcome attitude of the three traditional American automakers to Biden can only be seen from the fact that the Big Three congratulated Biden through social media and company spokespersons at the first time. After all, Biden's victory was not a foregone conclusion before the US Federal Election Commission officially announced the election results, and regional powers, including Russia, Mexico and other non-American traditional allies, have not yet expressed their views on Biden.

However, even if the Big Three can relax on the issues of supply chain and trade protection, they still need to face the other side of Biden's "double-edged sword": taxation.

Unlike the Trump administration, which advocated tax cuts for enterprises to stimulate the economy, Biden made it clear during the campaign that he would raise the corporate tax rate, raising the highest corporate tax rate from the current 2 1% to 28%.

In addition, if he can take office smoothly, Biden, who has a moderate policy, is expected to follow the policy of promoting the auto industry to return to the mainland in the Trump era. On the one hand, Biden never said that he would abolish the tripartite agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, and the proportion of the China part of the agreement will not decline in the short term; On the other hand, especially for the global intangible low-tax income tax GILTI earned by overseas subsidiaries of American companies, Biden plans to raise the tax rate from the current 10.5% to 2 1% in one breath, prompting multinational automobile companies to set up a vehicle industry chain in the United States in disguise.

The revival of American new energy automobile industry is in sight

If Biden's New Deal brings multiple-choice questions about trade friction and corporate tax burden to car companies in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, then Biden and the Democratic Party behind him may only bring good news in the field of new energy vehicles.

"I will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement on my first day in office" is Biden's powerful response to Trump's "retreat" action on social media. But Biden's vision in the field of new energy does not stop there.

As early as the election rally in July and the subsequent clean energy revolution and environmental plan, Biden announced that he would launch a large-scale climate transformation plan during his term of office, and follow the example of the European Union to strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2050. To this end, the federal government will invest 2 trillion US dollars, and with the input from the private sector and the federal states, the total funding scale of the climate plan will reach an astonishing 5 trillion US dollars.

Specific to the automobile industry, the package includes infrastructure construction, additional car subsidies, government planned procurement and tax incentives.

In terms of infrastructure construction, Biden plans to build 500,000 new charging piles nationwide and accelerate the research and development and localized production of power batteries. In order to support start-ups in the field of electric vehicles, the Democratic Party also plans to set up a venture capital fund to ensure the survival of the new forces that build cars. Prior to this, in 20 12, the Advanced Automotive Technology Manufacturing Project (ATVM) led by the US Department of Energy gave Tesla and Fiske more than 10 billion US dollars in the form of credit.

In terms of policy, Biden plans to provide cash coupons for consumers who switch from electric vehicles to fuel vehicles. Although the details of the cash subsidy have not yet been determined, it is estimated that the federal government will invest at least $450 billion in 10. Compared with the subsidy policies for new energy vehicles in China and Europe, the United States has long lacked strong price incentives to support electric vehicles. During the Obama administration in 2009, Washington used $3 billion to give consumers a subsidy of up to $4,500 for replacing motor vehicles, but after the $3 billion fund pool was exhausted, the stimulus policy was exhausted. The strength of this policy can't even compare with Germany's 5 billion euro subsidy fund pool with a much smaller economy.

In addition to directly subsidizing consumers, Biden also plans to take the lead in putting American-made electric vehicles into operation through the federal procurement system, starting with public transportation represented by school buses and government vehicles.

Another important measure is to increase the tax credit policy for electric vehicles. In the Obama era, the federal government gave each car manufacturer a tax credit of 200,000 electric cars, and the credit for each electric car was $7,000. Until March of this year, Tesla and General Motors used up 200,000 vehicles one after another, hoping that Washington would consider extending the preferential tax policies. However, in the congressional report that month, the White House not only rejected this request, but also called for the total cancellation of this tax credit, saying that the cancellation would save the government $2.5 billion in 10. Biden, on the other hand, plans to expand the credit from 200,000 vehicles to 400,000 vehicles at one time, and the credit for each electric vehicle will also be upgraded to $7,500.

In addition to preferential policies, Biden's other axe to support new energy vehicles is to strengthen the supervision of traditional fuel vehicles again.

In California, the most representative and radical environmental protection regulation, the Trump administration had previously filed a lawsuit against the California Air Resources Board under the California government at the federal level, accusing the board of not having the right to implement strict emission requirements independently of the federal government. In March of this year, Trump abolished the fuel efficiency standards planned by the Obama era through administrative means.

According to this plan, American automakers need to double their fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon between 20 1 1 and 2025, which is equivalent to improving fuel economy by at least 5% every year. Trump lowered this standard to 1.5%, hoping to ensure the continued competitiveness of "muscle cars" such as pickup trucks.

Biden, as the vice president of the United States during the Obama era, is expected to withdraw the federal lawsuit against the California Air Resources Board and resume the fuel efficiency standard plan formulated during the Obama era.

In the past four years, Trump's discriminatory policies in * * * and inner-party iron ticket warehouse, shale gas base in Oklahoma and Democratic ticket warehouse in California are gradually intensifying the polarization in the United States, and the contradiction between energy states and technology states is making it difficult to implement applicable environmental emission standards at the federal level.

Emphasize "reBuild a better future" (build? Back? Better) slogan Biden, if he takes office, may be able to bridge the contradictions among the States to a certain extent, pave the way for a unified national standard and lay the foundation for the further development of new energy vehicles in the United States.

According to Biden's clean energy revolution and environmental plan, by 2026, the market share of electric vehicles in the United States will reach 25% and the annual sales will reach 4 million. The development of new energy automobile industry is expected to create 1 10,000 jobs for the United States.

Regrettably, even today, even with Tesla, a star company in the field of electric vehicles, the sales of electric vehicles in the United States have been firmly at the bottom of the three major automobile markets in China, the United States and Europe. According to the statistics of McKinsey & Company, in the first half of 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was about 385,000, while Europe successfully surpassed China to become the largest new energy vehicle market in the world with sales volume of 410.4 million. In the first half of the year, the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were only 1 1. 1 10,000 vehicles.

What about the beneficiary on the other side?

Biden is not only welcomed by American new energy automobile manufacturers, but also by Europeans on the other side of the ocean.

The election of an American presidential candidate who follows the rules in diplomatic and trade issues, pays attention to the traditional transatlantic friendship and agrees with the Paris climate agreement is undoubtedly welcomed by Europeans.

Especially on the issues of trade frictions and tariffs, the Trump administration has been threatening to increase the tariff on imported cars from 2.5% to 25% without considering transatlantic friendship. This threat has always been the sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of European car companies such as Daimler and BMW. After all, not long ago, the United States and Europe just imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other in the field of civil aviation manufacturing.

Compared with the Trump administration, in the context of Sino-US friction, Europeans are reaching an understanding within the Democratic Party by gradually eliminating tariffs on EU products in exchange for not riding a fence between China and the United States. In addition, Biden, as an opponent of Britain's withdrawal from the EU without agreement, can also exert influence on London through the special relationship between Britain and the United States, which will help European car companies avoid the chaotic supply chain problems after Britain's withdrawal from the EU.

At the same time, under the background that the electrification of the three traditional American automobile companies is relatively backward, European automobile companies also hope to further occupy the North American market through the electrification wave of the American automobile industry.

Herbert Diss, CEO of Volkswagen Group, said in an interview with Bloomberg during the election: "The policy of the Democratic Party may be more in line with our global strategy, that is, the strategy of tackling climate change and comprehensive electrification. In terms of market share, the United States is the weakest region in the world. With the deepening of Volkswagen's electrification strategy, its share in the US electric vehicle market is expected to further expand. " Since the second half of this year, the ID family of Volkswagen Group has successively launched two important pure electric vehicles, ID.3 and ID.4. After the tailgate, Volkswagen Group has been hoping to reopen the situation in the North American market through the ID family. Volkswagen has previously set up an ID.4 production plant in Tennessee.

Like European car companies, East Asian power battery manufacturers, represented by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., smell the electrification business opportunities in the American market. Tony Blinken, Biden's senior foreign policy adviser, said during the campaign that it was unrealistic to completely decouple China from the United States, and it was necessary to reset the economic and technological relations with China.

However, China enterprises still need to face many challenges if they want to restore the prosperity of export trade to the United States at the component level.

On the one hand, Biden's deputy, former California Attorney General kamala D Harris, will play a key role in the uncertainty. Kamala D Harris will not only help the Democratic Party to play the role of identity politics through politically correct female minority representatives, but also be the best candidate for the Democratic Party to implement the American-style intellectual property system on a global scale. This problem encountered resistance in the first stage of the previous Sino-US economic and trade agreement negotiations, and may also become a hidden danger in the future Sino-US autonomous driving and car networking technology exchanges.

On the other hand, if successfully elected, it is doubtful to what extent Biden can reverse the policy left by Trump in the next four years. Trump not only successfully appointed three federal judges during his tenure, but the Republican Party is expected to continue to control the Senate. Biden, who has never expressed his intention to give up the "three-nation agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada", may be more likely to be just a polite "Trump".

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.