1796, the disillusionment of a prosperous age

Author: Huo Xiaoshan

At the beginning of 1796, a grand ceremony for the throne of Zen was held in the Forbidden City. Qianlong passed the throne to Jiaqing, and announced that the entire country would be exempted from the next year. Money and food.

This is the most perfect finale in Qianlong's life. Since he came to power, the country has been peaceful, the world has been at peace, and all nations have come to court, creating an unprecedented prosperous age. Now, he can still make the empire's top power transfer smoothly, which is extremely rare in Chinese history.

Qianlong was so proud that his military skills should have surpassed all the emperors in the past dynasties, and he was truly the most perfect man through the ages.

However, the slap in the face always comes quickly. Six days after the finale, a massive White Lotus Sect uprising broke out on the Sichuan-Chu border. This uprising completely shattered the dream of the prosperous age of Kangxi and Qianlong, and Qianlong's life's hard work was wiped out.

The reason for the outbreak of this uprising seems to be that in the later years of Qianlong's reign, the Qing government's lax governance and serious corruption led to officials forcing rebellion. But the essential reason should be that population growth has exceeded the level that social and economic development can bear, leading to extreme hardship in national life and providing soil with suitable temperature and moisture for social unrest.

In 1681, Kangxi quelled the San Francisco Rebellion and recovered Taiwan, and China's internal war came to an end. Since then, after the three dynasties of Kangxi, Yongzheng, and Qianlong, China's population has skyrocketed, exceeding 200 million and 300 million successively. Staunton, deputy envoy of the British Macartney Mission, even estimated that China's population reached 350 million.

The barbaric growth of the population is certainly a remarkable achievement of the Qing government, but it also laid a landmine for the Qing government that could explode at any time. Because China's population is increasing in a geometric progression, food supply can only increase in an arithmetic progression. If there are too many monks and too little rice, food prices and land rental prices will rise sharply. As early as 1709, Kangxi was already aware of this problem. In his edict to exempt the world from money and food, he said, "Although the household registration has increased, the land and land have not increased. If one person's property is divided to support several families, how can his plan be paid?".

In the first year, he said: "Therefore, for those who have not yet completed the Yin Dynasty, the good cause has been inherited for a long time, the household registration is stable, the land is not increased, the production is not increased, and the income is not given, it is inevitable. I have noticed this. Hidden, deep in thought."

However, population pressure did not become a major social problem during the Kangxi era, because at that time the country's population had just passed the 100 million mark, and the Qing Dynasty's territory was still expanding. Territorial expansion can bring more arable land to China, and more arable land can bring more grain production. This is just like the American Progressive Movement. Farmers in the three states on the east coast can go to the vast interior to reclaim wasteland and cultivate land to relieve the export pressure in the eastern region. Therefore, during the Kangxi era, only Jiangning, Suzhou, Shanghai, and Fujian became shortage areas and needed to allocate grain from other provinces.

However, in the later years of Kangxi, the poverty problem caused by population pressure became increasingly apparent. As soon as Yongzheng came to power, he told the governors of the provinces, "The country is resting and recuperating. Over the past few years, the number of household registrations has increased, and the number of fields has been limited. Unless we lead the farmers all over the world to work hard and reap double the harvest, we will not be able to have a healthy family."

However, Emperor Yongzheng was unable to relieve the pressure on his mouth, so in the early years of Qianlong's reign, the situation of high prices spread throughout the country. In Sichuan, a land of abundance and fertile fields, in the ninth year of Yongzheng's reign (1730, 1731), the price per tael was 4 to 5 taels. In the third year of Qianlong's reign (1748), the price increased to 1 tael, at least 8 or 9 taels. Prices in grain-producing areas like Sichuan have doubled, and prices in other provinces with average grain production are even more unimaginable. Interested readers can log in to the "Qing Dynasty Grain Price Database" of the Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica, and search for the main grain prices reported to the emperor by each province after 1736. There is a more concrete understanding of the rise in food prices.

In the later years of Qianlong, population pressure had become a common consciousness of both the government and the public. In 1793, Qianlong expressed his worries in an imperial edict, "There will be few people and many people, which is related to Lu Yan Ji Cheng. If things continue to be good, grains are ruthless, people are lazy, and the land is desolate, it is bound to be If we don’t continue, we will be in dire straits. I am very worried about it!”

So, does Qianlong have any solution?

During the Qianlong period, a famous Jiangsu scholar, Hong Liangji, spoke highly of China. The solution to the problem is proposed. He believes that China's surplus of imports has caused economic difficulties. To solve this problem, there is currently no permanent solution, and there are only two methods that can slightly relieve the pressure.

The first is the method of regulating heaven and earth, which relies on natural forces such as plagues and natural disasters to cause a large number of deaths in the mouth to relieve the pressure on the mouth. However, through his research on Chinese history, he believed that "those who are unfortunate enough to suffer from droughts and epidemics cannot do anything to solve the problem of rapid population growth"; the second is the adjustment method of monarchs and prime ministers, that is, developing resources to the maximum extent, The government should formulate policies to stimulate industry, develop industry and improve production.

Although Hong Liangji did not propose a solution, he was still called "China's Alsace" by later generations.

The Qing government has made a lot of efforts in the "Law of Adjustment between Kings and Prime Ministers". In particular, the Qing government encouraged reclamation of wasteland. According to statistics, from the early years of Shunzhi to the later years of Kangxi, more than 40,000 to 30,000 hectares of wasteland were reclaimed in major provinces and regions across the country. In the fifth year of Yongzheng's reign, the government allowed people from all over the country to go to Yunnan and Guizhou provinces for reclamation, and gave the reclamators the right to take the imperial examination. In the third year of Qianlong's reign, the government encouraged people from all over the country to go to Xinjiang to reclaim land;

Secondly, the Qing government vigorously promoted sweet potatoes and corn, two American crops, to fill the appetites of the people. These two miraculous crops have different land requirements and can be grown on hills and slopes in barren areas without occupying the land of the main food crops. Under the instructions of Emperor Qianlong, local governments in various places stipulated that the land for planting sweet potatoes and sweet potatoes will always be tax-free;

Thirdly, the Qing government spared no effort to regulate the rivers, Huaihe River, Yongding River and other rivers that like to cause trouble. Provincial governments are also working hard to dredge major rivers. The floods were effectively controlled and the safety of agricultural products was extremely guaranteed; fourthly, the emperors of the Qing Dynasty adhered to the ancestral motto of "never increase taxes" and under the financial principle of "measure according to the amount", provided universal exemptions to the world many times. Money and food, lighten the burden. The total amount of agricultural taxes exempted and exempted by the Qianlong Dynasty alone was 202.75 million taels of silver - from this point of view, Professor Yi Zhongtian's conclusion that Qianlong was a prince is still open to question.

However, as Hong Liangji expected, these policies and measures of the Qing government could only alleviate population pressure, but could not completely solve it. In addition, although the Qing Empire had an unprecedentedly large land area, it was still stretched thin with a population of 300 million. By the late Qianlong period, all the land that could be cultivated had been cultivated, and all the land that could not be cultivated had been cultivated, but it was still not enough. During the reign of Daoguang, Wang Duo once said, "There are many harms, such as there are already crops on the top of the river, there are islands in the river, old forests in the middle of Sichuan, and deep caves for seedlings, but they are still not cultivated." According to Hong Liangji's research, on average, every day Each farmer needs to farm 3 to 4 acres, which is enough to maintain minimum living. However, in the Qianlong year (1753), the average number of acres was only about 3.86 acres, in the third year (1766) it was 3.56 acres, in the seventh year of Jiaqing (1812) it was 2.19 acres, and in the third year of Daoguang (1833) it dropped to 1.86 acres. It was impossible to maintain the basic The minimum standard of living for the public. At the same time, the average British citizen had 10 acres of cultivated land.

Among other things, although American crops were vigorously promoted, according to scholar Wu Hui's estimate, from the end of Qianlong to Jiaqing, their output only accounted for 4.63% of the national grain output. Professor Hou Yangfang has emphasized many times that "the import of American crops to the Qing Dynasty increased dramatically and exceeded 200 million, 300 million, and 400 million. It is still traditional crops that feed China's hundreds of millions of people." In fact, this conclusion can be speculated without historical evidence. How vast do you think those hills and slopes in the area can be? How many sweet potatoes and can they grow?

For the benefit of construction and construction, it can guarantee the results of agricultural production to the greatest extent, but it cannot increase the original output of grain; universally exempting money and grain from the world can reduce the economic burden of the people, but it cannot fundamentally improve the people's livelihood. living level. What's more, in the later years of Qianlong's reign, the Qing government became increasingly corrupt. Excessive expropriation and expropriation by local governments was common. Landlords annexed land with impunity. The common people could only hold wowotou in their hands and there was no oil in their dishes. They could not live their lives at all. In addition, the banks of the Yangtze River and the Han River collapsed year after year, causing the local people to either riot against rent or find another way out. John Barrow, a member of the British Garni mission to China, recorded: “Whether I was in Zhoushan or during the three days upriver to the capital, I did not see any evidence of adequate food and clothing, or the prosperity of the countryside... What was touched was poverty and backwardness. "This is definitely not a generalization.

In the junction area of ??Hubei, Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces, there are virgin forests. This group of undulating, intertwined and dangerous terrain is collectively called Bahrain. The land is barren and the climate is harsh. No one would want to settle here unless they had to. However, after the 37th year of Qianlong's reign, "poor people from Sichuan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui and other provinces came here with their families to reclaim land and open up wasteland in an endless stream." By the time the Lotus Religion Uprising broke out, the population of Bahrain was no less than one million.

In this economically and culturally backward and closed area, such a large number of people have gathered, which is very suitable for folk religions to take root and thrive here. At this time, all it takes is two wild people to raise their arms and shout, and millions of believers will cut down trees as soldiers and raise poles as flags, and the world will gather in response. They will not give up until the world is turned upside down and the Youyan is burned. Emperor Qianlong severely suppressed secular religions and did not hesitate to set off a frenzy of cultural terror. Even mentally ill patients suspected of spreading cults would not be tolerated and would be executed without mercy. However, Emperor Qianlong was deeply concerned and took every precaution, but in the end he failed. The Lotus Sect was able to build a huge secret religious kingdom in Bahrain, which was about to cause a bloody storm.

To resolve the huge export pressure and eliminate the hidden factors of unrest, Emperor Qianlong’s only choice was to promote the overall transformation of the national economy, trade with countries around the world, and integrate with historical trends to achieve a qualitative leap in productivity.

The three dynasties of Kangxi, Qianlong and Yong were the period of rapid development in Europe. Industrial life, transportation life, and political life were all swarming. New theories, new ideas, and new inventions in philosophy, economics, politics, and science were new and innovative. . With the development of the textile industry, thousands of farmers left their hometowns and came to cities to become industrial workers. The purely agricultural population dropped from 90% in the 15th century to 50% in the 17th century, which was extremely alleviated. pressure on the rural population. In 1795, the British government also launched the "Spenham System" to provide financial subsidies to industrial workers whose income levels did not meet the standard. At the same time, the government also actively helps farmers who have lost their land find suitable jobs in cities, gradually completing the transfer of rural surplus labor, and reducing social instability.

A large number of farmers flowed into the cities, resulting in the emergence of many super-popular cities in the UK. For example, London's population reached 570,000 at the end of the 17th century, ranking second in Europe. Pangkou in the city requires nearby rural areas to provide more livestock products such as cheese, eggs, and butter, as well as agricultural and sideline products such as fruits and vegetables. This has promoted the transformation of many farmers into planting higher value-added livestock products and dairy products. Due to the limited number of people required for animal husbandry, more farmers move to cities and become industrial workers. And the rapidly developing industry can fully absorb this continuous influx of labor force. In the heyday of Kangxi and Qianlong, China's urbanization level was less than 7%.

Due to its scale advantage, the cotton textiles produced in China are relatively cheap and can be afforded by most people. The same is true for other industrial and agricultural products, which has improved the consumption power of ordinary British people and brought their living standards into a moderately prosperous state ahead of schedule. According to records, in the early days of his career, an ordinary employee on a farm in Hampshire, England, had three meals as follows: breakfast was milk, buns, and the leftover salted pig from the day before yesterday; lunch was buns, cheese, a small amount of beer, pickled pig, and bells. Potatoes, vegetables or carrots; dinner is bread and cheese. On Sunday, you can eat fresh pig. In the later stages of his career, life in England was even more prosperous. In 1808, the average British farming family's consumption list also added 2.3 gallons of skim milk, 1 pound of cheese, 17 pints of light beer, half a pound each of oil and sugar, and 1 pound of tea. When I read the various records of the starvation of ordinary Chinese people during the same period, it was really hard to calm down the tide.

The improvement in the consumption level of ordinary people in the UK has in turn promoted the expansion of industry and the increase in employment, further relieving the UK's population pressure.

Take the United States as an example. It stole the British army at the end of the 18th century and began to develop its business. In 1810, the population of the United States was 7.24 million. However, with the development of industry, the country's labor force was seriously inadequate. As a result, the United States attracted a large number of immigrants from overseas. From 1820 to 1910, the number of immigrants in the United States reached 27.92 million. The huge number of immigrants not only solved the problem of lack of industrial capital in the United States, but also brought various new technologies, allowing American industries to catch up.

In a country that relies on industrial development, the huge amount of low-cost labor is not only not a burden, but also a booster for economic development. In a closed agricultural country, the large and low-cost labor force is not only not the engine of social progress, but also the breeding ground for social unrest. This principle holds true at all times and in all countries.

Why is India provoking trouble on the Sino-Indian border recently? The underlying reason is that India has a pyramid structure, with prime-age workers accounting for the absolute majority. If the Indian government can solve these surplus labor forces, then India's future development will be unlimited. However, if the Indian government cannot provide sufficient jobs for these people, then Indian society is very likely to fall apart.

Therefore, the Indian government covets China's world status and hopes to replace it with China, solve the employment problem for India, and stabilize domestic unstable factors.

Of course, we ask Emperor Qianlong to keep up with the world trend and promote economic transformation. This is an afterthought. As the leader of China two centuries ago, it is difficult for him to transcend the constraints and maintenance of traditional concepts. We cannot be too harsh on the thinking inertia of domination.

Moreover, even if Emperor Qianlong was willing to relax controls on trade after Garni's visit to China and follow his example to a limited extent, it would probably be too late, because it was only a few years before the Lotus Rebellion. The White Lotus Rebellion tore apart the curtain of the prosperous age of Kangxi and Qianlong, and ruined all the preventive measures taken by the Qing Dynasty to maintain autocratic rule. From our perspective, the only way Emperor Qianlong could prevent uprisings like the Lotus Sect was to reform and open up, learn from others, and participate in world trade.

Just imagine, when tens of thousands of people rise from the ground in China, how much of China’s surplus labor will be solved, and when thousands of freighters carrying goods sail to China’s docks, how much of China’s grain supply will be supplemented Gap, when thousands of super cities spring up like bamboo shoots in China, how much rural economic crop production will be promoted; when thousands of cotton textile industry products flow into the market, how many shabby clothes will no longer be worn in China? Tattered and uncovered...

It's a pity that all this is just imagination. The already senile Emperor Qianlong is sitting on the Supreme Emperor's chair, silently reciting the secret mantra of the domain, and thunder strikes the earth. Li Ma Li Cao, hoping to curse the leader of the Lotus Cult uprising to death.

Emperor Jiaqing, who was sitting next to Emperor Qianlong, looked confused.

Reference materials:

1. Cao Shuji and Chen Yixin, "Althusian Theory and China since the Qing Dynasty—Review of Related Research by American Scholars in Recent Years", Historical Research, 2002 /p>

2. Ding Guangling, "Increase and Pressure in the Early Qing Dynasty (1644-1820)", Journal of Fuxingang University, 1993

3. Luo Yi, "Re-Estimation of Qing Dynasty Figures", Economic Science , 1999

4. Zhang Hongjie's "The Prosperous Age of Hungry - Gains and Losses in the Qianlong Era", Chongqing Publishing House, 2016

5. Hou Yang's "The Prosperous Age of Kangxi and Qianlong", CITIC Publishing Group, 2019

6. Han Yi "The Historical Process of American Industrial Modernization", 2007

7. Hou Jiaju "China Economic History", Xinxing Publishing House, 2008

8. Wu Di, "Agricultural Development and Environmental Protection Issues in River Basins in the Qing Dynasty", Journal of Chinese Normal University: Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,

1996

9. He Bingdi: "Research on China from 1368 to 1953", Shanghai Ancient Books Publishing House, 1989