Summarize the major events at home and abroad in 20 17 with words.

1.？ Trump takes office (65438+ 10 month)

20 17 the us presidential election was dubbed by netizens as "American drama of the year". Despite the overall decline of the media and polls, Trump finally relied on the "silent majority" to successfully counterattack and was elected as the 45th president of the United States.

The anti-establishment president made a surprising statement, claiming to end some free trade agreements, set up tariff barriers and adjust US-Russian relations. He believes that NATO is "outdated" ... He frequently breaks away from the "improvisation" of American traditional strategic thinking, which makes the outside world worry about the uncertainty of American future policy, and European allies are also worried that traditional transatlantic relations are facing variables.

Emphasize "America first" and shout the slogan "Let America be great again" ... 20 17 How will Trump lead the American ship forward?

Trump promised to act quickly to get the United States to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), revise and replace Obamacare reform plan, abandon the clean energy policy of the previous administration, and many other measures.

2. Britain started the process of Britain's leaving the EU (March).

Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union actually abandoned Britain's 50-year foreign and economic policy. The British government will start a two-year formal process of Britain's withdrawal from the EU before the end of March.

20 16 On June 24th, after giving his resignation speech, then British Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha returned to the Prime Minister's Office.

At present, the trajectory is still unclear, but Theresa May's government promised to make a plan before starting the process of Britain's withdrawal from the EU in Article 50 of the EU. Although the plan may not be detailed, Britain must formulate a comprehensive negotiation strategy. May will try to avoid market turmoil, encourage domestic investment and win the support of Britain's withdrawal from the EU within the Conservative Party. It is very difficult to do these three things at the same time.

3. Battle of Raqqa (first half of the year)

Jihadists of the Islamic State attacked cities in Syria and Iraq, which made many countries in the world feel fear. Today, they have been out of power in these two countries for nearly two years. The focus in recent months has been the struggle for control of Mosul. Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, was captured by extremists of this organization in 20 14.

65438+ 10/day, an Iraqi government soldier participated in the military action against the "Islamic State" in eastern Mosul.

According to the progress of the Mosul campaign, the next target will be the Syrian city of Raqqa, which is the de facto "capital" of the "Islamic State" organization, possibly in early 20 17.

2016165438+1On 7 October, near the town of Ainisa, 50 kilometers north of Raqqa, members of the Syrian Democratic Army took part in military operations.

4. French presidential election (April-May)

After Britain left the European Union, the election of Donald Trump and the rejection of the referendum results ruined matteo renzi's term as Italian Prime Minister, followed by the 20 17 general election. French political circles will try to curb the rise of the National Front candidate Marina Le Pen.

Although Le Pen may win in the first round of voting, it is widely believed that she will lose in the second round of voting because moderate voters will unite against her. Popular candidates are conservatives and party member francois fillon.

However, there are differences among mainstream political parties, and Le Pen enjoys a high support rate among working-class voters. In addition, several surprising voting results on 20 16 show that none of the votes can be considered as definitive. If she wins, the EU may face the most serious crisis so far, which is more serious than Britain's withdrawal from the EU.

5. Iranian presidential election (May)

In the past four years, hassan rouhani has unexpectedly put its own mark on Iran, especially reached a nuclear agreement with the United States and five other world powers.

Today, the nuclear agreement is under pressure because Trump is about to take office, because the latter sometimes solemnly declares that it will give up. In this case, Rouhani faces the challenge of re-election, because hardliners will try to influence this election. Whether he can win or not and whether Iran will take a more confrontational road will have a great impact on the Middle East and beyond.

6. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates (for the whole year)

American interest rate, like oil price, is an economic factor that can shake the world. For many people and countries, the key issue of 20 17 is how much interest rate will rise.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate in June 5438+February, which was only the second time since the financial crisis. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times in 20 17. The market does not think that austerity measures will be so powerful. In fact, however, interest rates may rise further.

Ben janet yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, himself admitted that Trump effect was not considered. If the President-elect's massive fiscal stimulus plan is supported by Congress, it may push interest rates to a higher level.

Before the Fed raised interest rates, the Turkish lira began to depreciate rapidly.

After Trump won the election, bondholders and currencies such as Mexican peso and Turkish lira suffered heavy losses. If his policies after taking office increased the global currency cost, the blow may be even greater.

7. Turkish referendum (first half of the year)

In recent 15 years, Erdogan tried to expand his power in Turkey. By this means, he became the most influential leader since Kemal, the father of Turkey.

In 20 17, Erdogan may finally realize his most important ambition: he formally monopolized power and ruled Turkey as the undisputed head of state and government.

After a bloody year, including an attempted coup and a series of terrorist attacks, public support for giving Erdogan more power has increased. The referendum may be held in April or May. The president may describe the result of the "yes" vote as obeying public opinion. His opponents will think that voting against it is the last chance to stop dictatorship.

8. After the turbulent transition, where will the turbulent political situation in South Korea go?

Can park geun-hye survive the Constitutional Court? Park geun-hye, a woman who claimed to be "married to Korea", was abandoned by Koreans. After the impeachment case was passed by the South Korean National Assembly, park geun-hye was suspended from the presidency, and her fate will be tried by the South Korean Constitutional Court.

Will you stay in power or step down in disgrace? No matter what the final verdict is, park geun-hye will become a disgraceful history of Korean politics.

Will Ban Ki-moon run for the next South Korean president? On 20 16 12 3 1, Ban Ki-moon officially stepped down as Secretary-General of the United Nations. He has held this position for 10 years, and has made some achievements and left many regrets. For his future, the Korean media is obviously more anxious than himself, and has repeatedly exposed that he wants to run for the presidency of South Korea. However, Ban Ki-moon himself has never made a clear statement on this. The question is, will he run?

The South Korean president has a five-year term and cannot be re-elected. A very strange phenomenon appeared in this year's general election. There is only one candidate for the ruling party, that is, Ban Ki-moon, probably because the ruling New National Party has no outstanding figures.

The New National Party still attaches great importance to the United States and basically relies on the United States in diplomacy, military affairs and economy. At present, there are three opposition parties in South Korea, some attach importance to the United States and some attach importance to China, so it seems difficult for the opposition parties to choose a candidate acceptable to everyone.

9. German general election (September ~ 65438+ 10)

Today, Merkel is the most important leader in Europe. However, in 20 17, as Merkel sought a fourth term, she faced a severe campaign challenge.

The problems of the existing political parties are likely to significantly increase the difficulty of establishing a stable alliance: people are frustrated with Merkel's liberal line on immigration; As a partner of her current ruling Coalition, the Social Democratic Party has been going downhill for a long time. The future of the traditional ally, the Liberal Democratic Party, is uncertain. The anti-euro and anti-immigrant German Choice Party will try to seize this opportunity to gain benefits. Merkel will work hard to ensure that domestic weakness will not weaken her key international role.