An analysis of the causes of the war between Russia and Georgia

An analysis of the causes of the war between Russia and Georgia

There is a country whose area is smaller than that of Chongqing, and its population is even less than one fifth of that of Guangzhou. It is built on a high mountain top and stands on the Black Sea. This is Georgia, a magical country.

However, in reality, the origin of Georgia is not as mysterious as the myth. After the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire in World War I, 19 18 established Georgia. However, when it reached 192 1, it was swallowed up by greedy Soviets. It was not until 199 1 that it became independent under the leadership of the nationalist President Zviad Gam Sachl Dia. It is also worth mentioning that Georgia is also the birthplace of Joseph Starr.

199 1 At the end of the year, Gam Sachl Dia was dismissed because of his strong fascist tendencies, and eduard shevardnaje took over as president. But his corrupt rule made the people miserable.

In 2003, Shevardnadze was re-elected as president in an obviously rigged election. The Georgian people were fed up, so protesters broke into the parliament building with roses in Shevardnadze's award-winning speech, which led the president to flee and declared a state of emergency. This was later called the Rose Revolution.

In the end, Shevardnadze stepped down, and Georgia once again hastily organized elections. This time, mikhail saakashvili was elected president with 96% of the vote, which was called "the fairest election since Georgia" by OSCE.

Cabily also lived up to expectations. He cracked down on corrupt markets with free trade policy, integrated into the European Union and Jordan, and implemented the policy of territorial reunification reform in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which won the support of many Georgians and the strong support of the United States and its allies.

At present, the war between Russia and Georgia is still one of the most prominent wars with false information and deception as the main tactics in modern history. Because both sides of the conflict often deliberately mislead reports, it is difficult for archaeologists to find accurate facts from the conflict.

However, since 2008, Russia has gained the upper hand in this information war, thus spreading the view that Cabily and Georgia are war aggressors, while Russia's purpose is only to protect its citizens from illegal attacks by Georgia. However, as information about the conflict spreads through the propaganda network, Russia's statement becomes more and more reliable.

From the moment he became Georgian president, Cabily made himself the target of Russian attack. His western integration policy and his declared love for liberalism directly hurt the Russian government's goal of rebuilding the influence of the Cold War in this region.

The Republic of Sakash turned to the west and dreamed of joining Jordan and the European Union, which posed a threat to Russia's hegemony and security. Russia is worried about the strong support behind Saakash and his personal close relationship with western leaders.

On the other hand, Sa Cabily believes that this relationship will ensure Georgia's joining NATO and getting rid of Russian control. Later, he began to show a clear tendency to power, because he believed that the west would unequivocally support his efforts to promote national liberalization. But this is not the case. Western countries are just using him. By 2008, Western support for Saakashvili had almost disappeared.

In April 2008, the war between Russia and Georgia was inevitable. At that time, Russian policies also reflected their war preparations.

Russia withdrew from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in early 2008, and openly carried out military activities in Abkhazia and Ossetia. At that time, the CIS stipulated that only Georgian troops could occupy these areas, which was undoubtedly a flagrant violation of Georgian territory by Russia. The atmosphere in Russia and Georgia is getting better and better. However, neither Georgia nor Russia lit the fuse that led to the war.

At the NATO summit held in Bucharest in April 2008, western powers recognized Kosovo as an independent country, and at the same meeting, they formulated a NATO member action plan (MAP) for Georgia. Although this plan seems to be beneficial to Georgia, it sets the direction for the direct conflict between Georgia and Russia. As a part of MAP, Georgia must resolve all territorial conflicts before considering joining NATO. Saakashvili was forced to choose between violent reunification and land war with Russia, and finally gave up his dream of joining the West. At this time, Russia stepped up its military activities on the border and territory, entered important military exercises, and prepared to win the upcoming war.

Although there is concrete evidence that the Russian government planned to go to war as early as June 5438+065438+ 10, 2007, if going to war with Georgia has always been Moscow's goal, there is evidence that Russia adopted a carefully planned policy to force Georgia to go to war as early as 2002. Russia supports the ultimate winner, Edward Kokoiti, who is a fanatical separatist. Compared with the peaceful reunification of Georgia, it was impossible when he was in power.

Therefore, Russia gave up the opportunity to peacefully resolve half the conflicts and pointed to the desire to provoke war.

In 2007, in the so-called Munich speech, Vladimir Putin clearly expressed Russia's position on the Georgia issue: "Georgia can join NATO, but there is no Ossetia and Abkhazia." Putin declared that "he holds the key to Georgian integration."

Putin and Russia have every reason to like Mikhail SaaCabily. Cabily's accession to the treaty and the expansion of western influence directly threaten Putin's desire to rebuild Russian hegemony in the region. So the conflict between the two probably existed from the moment Saakashvili was elected.

Domestically, Saakashvili's popularity began to decline in 2006, because he began to show authoritarian political tendencies, and he could not fulfill his promise. Many of his economic reforms have not been carried out as promised, and unemployment and poverty remain the main problems in his country. At the same time, Saakashvili began to increase administrative power and reduce the diversity of government and society, which is very undemocratic. If Georgia is a car, it has no engine and no wheels, but the incompetent driver continues to cheer for it. After Saakashvili took over, the car was replaced by a new driver, but it was still in a dilapidated state. His commitment to liberalization and democracy made desperate Georgians feel wrong. However, no one in this country knows what a free and democratic society is like.

Cabily inherited a decadent country and promised to develop it. This doomed his failure. Although his failure was tragic, he was completely concerned. Most importantly, during his presidency, Cabily encountered a problem, that is, whether institutional cooperation is the natural premise of a democratic society, and how can a democratic country with various checks and balances operate without unification?

He was obviously confused by this problem, so he finally decided to establish this kind of cooperation and let democratization fill the gap. As a result, it is obvious that he failed.

When the war broke out in August 2008, Sa Cabily won the re-election of Georgian President, but he retired from politics on 20 12. Because Sa Cabily showed authoritarianism when the war was interrupted, he lost the support of most people. Despite Sa Cabily's best efforts, refugees from Abkhazia and Ossetia made it difficult for him to remain active in politics.

If Georgians are uneasy about the nature of the war with Russia, this support will be reduced, because obviously, the integration of the West will be at the expense of the conflict with Russia, and Saakashvili's authoritarian tendency will also lead to the lack of pluralism in the parliament, which is undoubtedly unfavorable to a country.

Saakashvili didn't realize this at all. He also used state resources to suppress the opposition and mobilized the army to put pressure on the people unprepared. These reckless actions led Georgians to choose another candidate to lead Georgia.

For western countries, many countries, including the United States, are tired of Saakashvili's repeated remarks on democratic norms, so they also support another candidate in the election, so obviously, Saakashvili has no chance to make a comeback.

Mikhail Sa Cabily is a charming figure. Although he has many shortcomings, he is really working hard for Georgia's democracy, but Georgians have no choice but to step down as the leader of the struggle between Russia and Georgia.

Cabily tried to open an independent road for Georgia to get rid of Russia and the West, but his top-down unification policy would only lead to the bottom-up division of Georgian society. After all, for Georgians seeking a better life, the only choice they can make is to break the old system and integrate into the west, but Saakashvili has been played by western countries.