Population aging problem?

China's population aging Thursday, August 9, 2007 09:50 1. China's "aging population" society is coming ahead of schedule.

For a country or region, due to the birth, death and migration of the population, the age structure of its population is constantly changing, that is, the proportion of minors, adults and the elderly in the total population is constantly changing. In the total population of a country or region, if the proportion of the elderly population continues to increase, while the proportion of the population of other age groups will decrease accordingly, we call this dynamic process population aging; On the other hand, if the proportion of the elderly population is declining and the proportion of other age groups is rising, we call this dynamic process population rejuvenation. Generally speaking, the population of a country or region may be aging or younger.

According to the theory of modern demography, population aging refers to a dynamic process in which the proportion of the elderly population increases due to the decrease of the number of young people and the increase of the number of the elderly in a country or region. Statistical indicators reflecting population aging can be roughly divided into three categories: indicators reflecting the degree of population aging, indicators reflecting the speed of population aging and indicators of dependency ratio. At present, the starting age of the elderly population in China is generally 60, while the starting age in the world is mostly 65. However, with the improvement of people's health level and the extension of population life, the starting age of the elderly population is gradually approaching the international standard of 65 when analyzing the problem of the elderly population.

At present, China's economy is developing rapidly, and it is also facing a series of economic and social problems, among which the aging population is one. According to the data of the United Nations, if a country's elderly population over 60 reaches 10% of the total population or the elderly population over 65 accounts for more than 7% of the total population, then the country is already an aging country. According to this standard, China's fifth population census shows that in 2000, the number of elderly people over 65 in China has reached 88 1 10000, accounting for 6.96% of the total population, and we are close to an aging country. At the end of 2005, the national 1% population sampling survey showed that the total population of the country reached 1 3,075,600, of which the population over 65 reached 1 0,055,000, accounting for 7.7% of the total population. It can be inferred from the data that China has indeed become an aging country. At present, China has the largest elderly population in the world. China's population aging is not only a problem of China itself, but also related to the process of global population aging, which has attracted worldwide attention.

Second, the main characteristics of China's aging population

"China will be an irreversible aging society in the 2 1 century." This is a heavy conclusion from the report "Forecast of Population Aging Development Trend in China" issued by the Office of the National Working Committee on Ageing. According to the report, the trend of population aging in China in 2 1 century can be divided into three stages: the first stage is the rapid aging stage of China society from 200/kloc-0 to 2020, during which the elderly population increased by 5.96 million annually, with an average annual growth rate of 3.28%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of the total population by 0.66%; The second stage (202 1 to 2050) is the accelerated aging stage, with an average annual increase of 6.2 million elderly people, and the elderly population will exceed 400 million in 2050; The third stage, from 205 1 to 2 100, is a stable and serious aging stage. In 20051year, the elderly population in China will reach a peak of 437 million, about twice the population of children, and the elderly population will stabilize at about 3 1% of the total population.

China's population aging presents the following characteristics: First, the elderly population base is large. The elderly population over 60 years old accounts for 1/5 of the total elderly population in the world and 1/2 of the elderly population in Asia. The United Nations predicts that China will always be the country with the largest elderly population in the world in the first half of 2 1 century, accounting for 20% of the world's elderly population; 2/kloc-0 In the second half of the 20th century, China was also the second largest country in the elderly population after India. Second, the growth rate of the elderly population is fast. From 1980 to 1999, in less than 20 years, the age structure of China population basically completed the transition from adulthood to old age, while it took Britain about 80 years and Sweden 40 years to complete this process. Third, the trend of aging is obvious. In recent years, the average annual growth rate of the elderly over 80 years old in China is about 4.7%, which is obviously faster than that of the elderly over 60 years old. At present, the number of elderly people over 80 years old has reached130,000, accounting for about 9.7% of the total elderly population. Fourth, the degree of regional aging is quite different. Shanghai's population age structure entered the old-age type as early as 1979, while Qinghai, Ningxia and other western provinces and regions are expected to enter around 20 10, with a difference of about 30 years. Fifth, the aging population is incompatible with the level of social and economic development. When some developed countries in Europe and America enter the old age society, the per capita GDP is generally around 5000- 10000 US dollars, but China's current level is far from it, and it is a typical country that grows old before it gets rich.

Third, the causes and effects of China's aging population.

There are many reasons for the acceleration of population aging in China, but there are two main and direct reasons: First, the low fertility rate caused by the long-term implementation of the family planning policy. In order to control the excessive population growth and reduce the pressure of population on economic and social development, China began to implement the basic national policy of family planning in the 1980s, which greatly reduced the fertility level of the whole society. On the other hand, the rapid economic growth, scientific and technological progress, the improvement of people's medical conditions and the improvement of living standards have made amazing achievements in human health and longevity, and the life expectancy of the population has been greatly extended. The result of the above factors is that the proportion of young people in the whole society is further reduced, while the proportion of old people is relatively increased, which is finally manifested in the rapid growth and increase of the proportion of middle-aged and old people in the whole society, that is, the early arrival of an aging society.

Population aging is an important symbol of social civilization and progress, and it will also bring a series of impacts on economic growth, industrial evolution, cultural progress and social development. First, the growth of the elderly population will change the dependency ratio of the population, and the increase of the dependent population will definitely increase the burden of the existing working population. According to the forecast, every 100 working-age population in China will support 13.74 elderly people, with 15.60 in 2000, 29.46 in 2025 and 48.49 in 2050. The total dependency ratio has also increased accordingly, from 59.5% in 2025 to 76.8% in 2050. Second, the aging of the age structure of the labor force accompanied by the aging of the population will certainly have a certain negative impact on economic development and the improvement of labor productivity. Third, the social security cost of the elderly caused by the aging population has greatly increased, which has brought a relatively heavy financial burden to the government. Fourth, the aging population objectively requires adjusting the existing industrial structure to meet the special needs of the elderly population for material and spiritual culture. In order to meet the growing material and cultural needs of the elderly population, develop the aging industry, increase the social services needed by the elderly, transform houses, communities and environments unsuitable for the elderly population, and develop various consumer goods such as clothing, food, shelter, transportation, use and culture for the elderly. Fifth, the aging population will inevitably lead to changes in family size and family structure, weakening the family's pension function. Therefore, it is urgent to develop various social welfare and social services centered on the community to supplement the deficiency of family pension function.

Fourth, the main countermeasures to solve the problem of population aging in China.

We must clearly see that in the 2 1 century, not only our country will face a series of economic and social problems brought about by the aging population, but also the vast number of western developed and developing countries will face this problem. Population aging will be a major economic and social problem in the whole 2 1 century, which constitutes one of the main characteristics of human social development in the new century. As we all know, the rapid and large-scale arrival of population aging in China, especially the rapid growth of the elderly population, is unprecedented. Under the condition of low and underdeveloped national economic development, the problem of population aging is bound to be related to major strategic issues such as the national economy and people's livelihood and long-term stability of the country. We should proceed from the overall situation of reform, development and stability, be far-sighted, assess the situation, take the overall situation into account, actively respond, make correct strategic choices and put forward corresponding solutions and countermeasures.

First of all, at the national strategic level, we should face up to the objective existence of the phenomenon of population aging and its possible challenges and impacts. Population aging is an inevitable product of human development to a certain stage, and it is independent of human will. Whether you admit it or not, whether you like it or not, it exists objectively. Therefore, in the face of the challenge of population aging, we can neither turn a blind eye nor deliberately avoid it, let alone talk about population aging and be blindly pessimistic. We should stand on the height of national strategy, treat this problem with a scientific attitude, meet the challenge of population aging with a positive attitude, seriously study the possible negative consequences of population aging, and try our best to avoid or slow down the negative impact of population aging on the economy and society. Therefore, we must treat the problem of population aging scientifically, objectively and rationally, understand the development trend of China's population structure evolution in the future, and make an overall strategic plan for the coordinated development of population, resources, environment and economy and society as soon as possible.

Secondly, we should treat the problem of population aging correctly and put forward the policy system and specific measures to solve this problem scientifically. Population aging is an inevitable objective product of the development of human society, not an option for an aging human society. However, people are by no means helpless and passively adapt to the aging human society. Human society can fully exert its subjective initiative, take appropriate countermeasures to ease contradictions, resolve difficulties and actively turn challenges into opportunities. Of course, under different historical conditions, the choice of countermeasures is different, and in the long process of 2 1 century, countermeasures should also evolve and innovate with the passage of time. At present, the main countermeasures are to adhere to the scientific concept of sustainable development of population, resources and environment under the guidance of Scientific Outlook on Development, make full use of the favorable situation of relatively low pension burden during the population window period, accelerate economic and social development, establish a relatively perfect social security system and pension insurance system as soon as possible, and make all preparations for further aging in the future.

1. On the political level, the government and the whole society should pay more attention to the problem of population aging, and formulate medium-and long-term policies and long-term plans for population aging from a macro and strategic perspective. Coping with the aging population is the common responsibility of the whole society, and the government, society, families and individuals all bear their due responsibilities and responsibilities. On this important economic and social issue, the government has always played a leading role, and the play of government functions plays a decisive role. Governments at all levels should proceed from China's basic national conditions, adhere to the scientific concept of sustainable development, attach great importance to the phenomenon and problems of population aging, reform and innovate, gradually establish and improve the social security system for the elderly, promote the continuous development of the elderly and the pension industry with industrialized and socialized operation mechanism, further meet the special needs of the elderly in material, spiritual and cultural aspects, and gradually improve their living environment and quality of life.

2. On the economic level, make full use of the current population window period and establish a multi-level and wide-ranging social security system and endowment insurance system in a short time. Under the condition of underdeveloped economy, China is facing an aging population. Therefore, in order to solve the problems brought about by the aging population, we must vigorously develop the economy, strive to enhance economic strength, and solve the economic and social problems brought about by aging with strong economic strength as the backing. It is estimated that the elderly population in China will reach 200 million around 20 15 of the next century, and it will exceed 400 million at the peak of aging in 1920s and 1940s, accounting for14 of the national population, of which 80 million-1 100 million (estimated by the middle of the next century) will be the elderly population aged 80 and over, accounting for 6544. Although the material conditions have improved, the difficulties are still great. We should plan ahead for a rainy day.

3. At the social level, we should vigorously carry forward China's fine tradition of respecting the elderly and loving the young, and implement the "government-led, family-oriented" pension model. Generally speaking, China is still a developing country with weak comprehensive national strength, low per capita GNP and a considerable number of poor people. For the large number of elderly people in China, there are many problems to be solved. At present, the high welfare policy from cradle to grave in western countries cannot be copied. We can only proceed from the national conditions of China, and choose our own way to build a model and system of providing for the aged with China characteristics according to the principle of sharing the burden among the state, society, family and individual. At the same time, we should also see that from the general situation in today's world, more than 90% of the elderly will eventually spend their old age at home, and it is also an inevitable trend to support the elderly and return to their families. At the same time, the Chinese nation has always been a nation that values etiquette and filial piety. Respecting the old and loving the young is a fine tradition of the Chinese nation. Children's knees and family happiness are the greatest comfort to the elderly.

4. At the population level, on the premise that the economy and society can bear it, we should implement more realistic population and family planning policies to solve the unreasonable phenomena in the population structure. Adhering to the correct Scientific Outlook on Development requires us to always adhere to the scientific concept of sustainable development of population, economy and society when facing, coping with and solving the problem of population aging. There are many ways to seek sustainable development under the situation that the population is accelerating towards aging. Among them, the theory of sustainable development insists on the sustainable development of population, resources and environment, and emphasizes the fairness, continuity and identity between generations, which provides basic guidelines for discussing the sustainable development of an aging society. Specifically, in order to persist in sustainable development, it is necessary to incorporate the needs of the elderly population into the purpose of scientific development, and at the same time pay attention to the effective and scientific utilization of all resources and the development and utilization of human capital of the elderly.

5. At the industrial level, we should pay attention to the great changes brought by the aging population to the adjustment of industrial structure and vigorously develop the service industry for the elderly. With the change of population structure in China, the aging population will gradually reduce the demand of minors for consumer goods, while various consumer goods and services to meet the needs of the elderly will continue to increase, thus challenging the existing economic and industrial structure in China. The demand for products and services that adapt to the aging population and meet the needs of the elderly themselves will be increasing. This change in consumption structure will attract more enterprises and individuals to engage in the research of the pension industry and develop the pension consumption market, thus triggering the adjustment and change of the entire industrial structure. Therefore, we should further vigorously build public facilities for the elderly, expand venues for activities for the elderly, increase services for the elderly, improve the level of services for the elderly, and develop services for the elderly.

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At the international symposium on "Demographic and Economic Analysis of China's Old-age Policy in 2 1 century" sponsored by the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the latest research report "Silver Hair China" submitted by CSIS attracted great attention from the participants. The report said: "Thirty-five years ago, the ratio of children to the elderly population in China was 6: 1, but in the next 35 years, this ratio will be reversed, and the elderly population will be twice as large as the children population. The life expectancy of the population has increased from 4 1 year in 1949 to 70 years now. On the other hand, the number of working people has also dropped significantly. By 2050, the total working population in China will be reduced 18%-35% compared with the current one. The decline in the birth rate and the extension of life expectancy are two basic forces that promote the aging of China and the decline in the relative number of working people. " And also solemnly pointed out: "China is about to experience an amazing demographic transition, and a young country is about to age."

The so-called population aging refers to the increase in the relative proportion of the elderly in the total population. According to internationally accepted standards, the proportion of the elderly over 60 years old or over 65 years old in the total population exceeds 10% and 7%, which can be regarded as an aging population. In 2003, the proportion of people over 60 years old in the total population has reached 1 1%, and the problem of population aging is about to become an unprecedented new challenge in China.

The government of China attaches great importance to and solves the problem of population aging, actively develops the cause of aging, and initially forms a pattern of government-led, social participation and national concern for the development of the cause of aging. The state has established the National Working Committee on Ageing, which has defined the objectives, tasks and basic policies of the work on ageing. The Law of the People's Republic of China on the Protection of the Rights and Interests of the Elderly was promulgated, and the Outline of the Tenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Elderly in China was formulated, which clearly incorporated the cause of the elderly into the overall economic and social development plan and the sustainable development strategy. The basic livelihood of the elderly has been guaranteed, and the city has initially established an endowment insurance system, a medical insurance system and a minimum living security system for residents, including the elderly; Rural areas implement an old-age security system based on land security and combining family support with social support. Many places have also taken special measures to help the poor and the elderly. The aged care service has developed rapidly. The China Municipal Government has revised the Code for Architectural Design of the Elderly, the Code for Design of Urban Roads and Building Obstacles and other related laws and regulations to facilitate the life and travel of the elderly. Community health stations, care centers, activity centers for the elderly, schools for the elderly, leisure squares for the elderly and other elderly service facilities have gradually increased, and the number of volunteers serving the elderly has been growing.

On February 23, 2006, the Office of the National Working Committee on Ageing released the Research Report on the Forecast of Population Aging Development Trend in China, which was the first time that the National Office for Ageing released the report on population aging. The report introduces the current situation, pressure, development trend and characteristics of China's population aging, as well as the problems and policy suggestions brought about by population aging.

The report points out that 2 1 century is the age of population aging. China entered the aging society on 1999, and it is one of the developing countries that entered the aging society earlier. China has the largest elderly population in the world. The aging of China is not only China's own problem, but also related to the global aging process, which has attracted worldwide attention.

According to the report, China will be an irreversible aging society in 2 1 century. From 200 1 to 2 100, the population aging in China can be divided into three stages.

The first stage, 200 1 to 2020, is a stage of rapid aging. At present, China will add an average of 5.96 million elderly people every year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.28%. By 2020, the elderly population will reach 248 million, and the aging level will reach 17. 17%, among which the elderly population aged 80 and above will reach 30.67 million, accounting for 12.37% of the elderly population.

The second stage, 202 1 to 2050, is to accelerate the aging stage. With the second baby boom in the mid-1960s and 1970s, the number of elderly people in China began to accelerate, with an average annual growth of 6.2 million. By 2023, the elderly population will increase to 270 million, equivalent to the number of children aged 0~ 14. By 2050, the total number of elderly people will exceed 400 million, of which the number of elderly people aged 80 and above will reach 94.48 million, accounting for 2 1.78% of the elderly population.

The third stage, from 205 1 to 2 100, is a stable stage of severe aging. In 20051year, the elderly population in China will reach a peak of 437 million, about twice the number of children. At this stage, the scale of the elderly population will be stabilized at 300-400 million, the aging level will be basically stabilized at about 3 1%, and the proportion of the elderly population aged 80 and over will remain at 25-30%, entering a highly aging platform.

According to the report, there are six main characteristics of population aging in China: large-scale elderly population, rapid aging development, unbalanced regional development, obvious upside-down between urban and rural areas, more elderly women than men, and aging ahead of modernization. The trend of population aging in China can be summarized as four points: population aging will always accompany 2 1 century; 2030-2050 is the most severe period of population aging in China, and the total dependency ratio will eventually exceed 50%. The "golden age of population" with low dependency ratio conducive to economic development will end in 2033; Serious population aging and aging will become increasingly prominent; China will face the dual pressures of aging population and overpopulation.

The report pointed out that the aging of the population will inevitably bring some new contradictions and pressures, and pose new challenges to economic and social development: in establishing a social security system that meets the requirements of the socialist market economy, social security pressures such as pension and medical care are enormous; In establishing a social service system for the elderly to meet the needs of the huge elderly population, there is great pressure to speed up the rational allocation of social resources, increase service facilities for the elderly and improve the service network for the elderly; In dealing with intergenerational relations, there is great pressure to solve the huge conflict of interests between the elderly and working-age people; In coordinating the harmonious development of urban and rural areas, there is great pressure to solve the aging problem in rural areas, especially in the backward central and western regions and poor border areas. At the same time, China government and society must pay huge costs to adjust the consumption structure, industrial structure and social management system. To adapt to the great changes in the age structure of the population.

The report emphasizes that at present, China's ideological, material and institutional preparations for coping with population aging are seriously lagging behind, and it is urgent to make all-round preparations for coping with the peak of population aging.

The report suggests that we should attach importance to an aging society as an important national condition of China in the 2nd/Kloc-0th century, establish the sense of aging, and enhance the sense of urgency and consciousness to meet the challenges of an aging population and an aging society. When studying and formulating economic and social development strategies, we should start from the basic national conditions of an aging society and incorporate the challenges of an aging society into one of China's future development strategies.

There are fewer people (young and middle-aged) working and more people receiving pensions, so the pressure on young and middle-aged people will be great, especially in China, a country where the government is unwilling to take money from compulsory education to the old-age care system. Middle-aged people have to bear the responsibility of raising children and supporting the elderly. Especially under the current family planning policy, it is equivalent to a couple having to bear the cost of one child and four elderly people. The educational expenses of children, the medical expenses of the elderly, the rising cost of living and the extremely low income make me feel headache.

Generally speaking, aging will not bring unemployment, but it will make the population structure aging, and the renewal rate will drop or become negative, resulting in negative population growth.

There are many criteria for aging, and the most direct and important one is that the population over 60 accounts for more than 10% of the total population and enters an aging society. According to the statistics of China in 2005, the population over 60 years old was 65.438+44 billion, accounting for 654.38+065.438+0% of the national population. Therefore, China has entered an aging society.

Why is the problem of population aging particularly prominent in China? China's aging has four characteristics: First, there are many people. The population over 60 has reached 65.438+0.44 billion, and only China has a population of over 65.438+0 billion in the world. Second, rapid progress. According to statistics, by the middle of this century, about 2045, the population over 60 in China will account for 30%. From 1 1% to 30% in 2005, it took China less than half a century, while it took many countries a hundred years. So our progress is much faster than that of other countries. Third, our productivity level is relatively low. We are heading for a well-off society, and the per capita GDP is much lower than that of many western countries, so the financial resources available to support this cause are limited. As people often say, we get old before we get rich, while many countries get old before we get rich. Fourth, the historical debt is relatively large. China has experienced a transition from a planned economy to a market economy. Under the planned economy system, there was no pension accumulation at that time, so this burden has been left until now, which is not available in other countries.

Aging will bring many problems to society, which can be summarized in three aspects: First, the pressure of providing for the aged is relatively high. Last year, 46 million pensioners in China paid more than 500 billion yuan, which is a huge figure. Second, medical costs will increase. According to general statistics, the elderly spend more than three times as much on medical expenses as young people, because the elderly are much sicker. Third, the elderly need care, and the nursing pressure of the elderly is also great.

The age structure of China population is aging. Bring the following problems to our social economy.

1 It shows that China's family planning policy has achieved results, the population growth rate is slowing down, and the population pressure is getting smaller and smaller. The total population will stop growing around 2030 and then slowly decline, which is a good thing.

2. Our government has already faced the problem of social pension. Due to the increasing number of elderly people, our government spends a lot of money on old-age insurance, which increases the burden on the government.

It will be common for children to support many elderly people, and the burden of children to support the elderly will increase.

4. It will promote the development of endowment insurance in China.

5, will not cause the tension of our country's labor force. Because the total number of teenagers, teenagers and children in China is still very large.