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A considerable number of provincial capital cities and cities with separate plans are already in a state of population loss, and their property markets are no longer worth investing in. Only those who just need it can buy houses in these cities because of the needs of actual use. For investors, it is best to stay away from these cities. Because the population data in the "Annual Statistical Bulletin" published by local statistical bureaus are distorted and lagging behind, I still use the increase or decrease of the number of primary school students (or the number of students in compulsory education) to infer the increase or decrease of the population in each city. Among the 48 cities with the highest level and the largest economic aggregate in China (the list is attached), the population of cities below 10 "underperforms the market" and their property markets are not suitable for investment. Of course, most of the 48 cities that are not included are small and medium-sized cities, and their property markets are often even less worth investing in. The first place in Dalian may surprise many people, but Dalian is indeed the largest city with the most serious population loss in China since 2008. In 2008, there were 522,000 students in compulsory education in the city, and in 2065, there were 438,000 students in 438+04, a decrease of 16%, far exceeding the national average. You must be cautious when investing in buying a house in Dalian. Second Taiyuan In 2008, the number of primary school students in Taiyuan was 298,000, and by 2065,438+03 (the data of 2065,438+04 were not found), it was 254,000, a decrease of 65,438+04.8% in five years (due to the family planning policy, the number of primary school students nationwide decreased by 9.4% on average in these five years). Third place in Guiyang In 2008, the number of primary school students in Guiyang was 368,000, and in 2004, it was 4.38+065 million in 2065, a decrease of 65,438+04% in six years (the average number of primary school students in China decreased by 8.5% in these six years, and the number in 2065,438+04 was slightly higher than that in 2065,438+04). Fourth place in Harbin In 2008, the number of primary school students in Harbin was 48 1 0,000, 20 1 0,000, and only 4 1 0,000, which decreased by 1.4% in six years, far exceeding the national average, and it is an area with obvious population loss. Fifth Changchun In 2008, the number of primary school students in Changchun was 445,000, but in 2065 it decreased to 384,000, 438+04, a decrease of 13.7%, and the population loss was obvious. Sixth place Lanzhou In 2008, the number of primary school students in Lanzhou was 235,000, and in 2065,438+03, it was 203,000 (the data of 2065,438+04 was not found), and the number of primary school students decreased by 65,438+03.6% in five years. The seventh place is Sanya. In 2008, the number of primary school students was 710.9 million, and it dropped to 63,000 in 20 14, a decrease of 12.4%. Although there is no local support for the property market in Sanya, the population of Sanya has obviously lost under the background of the influx of national capital into real estate speculation in Sanya, indicating that the local economy has not improved. Sanya's high seasonality and huge supply of tourism make the city's property market bear a heavy burden. Eighth Kunming In 2008, there were 536,000 primary school students in Kunming. In 2065, there were only 483,400 students in 438+04, a decrease of 9.8%, which was higher than the national level. The city lacks population competitiveness. Ninth Xining In 2008, there were 654.38+066,000 students in Xining, and in 2065.438+04, there were 654.38+050 students, down 9.6%. The city lacks population competitiveness. The tenth place is Hohhot. In 2008, the number of primary school students in Hohhot was183,000. In 2065, it was reduced to168,700, a decrease of 7.8%, slightly less than the national average, but the city lacked population competitiveness. Why should we use the number of primary school students to study the increase and decrease of population? China generally conducts a population census every 10 years, and the statistics bureau estimates the population according to the sampling survey. Because it involves performance indicators such as per capita income and per capita GDP, the population figures published by the Bureau of Statistics are often inaccurate. The number of primary school students is counted by "counting heads" and is not polluted by the concept of political achievements, so it is an important indicator to examine the increase or decrease of a city's population. Which 48 cities have you studied? Cities with strong population growth: Xiamen, Shanghai, Langfang, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Beijing, Changsha, Quanzhou and Nanjing; Cities with moderate population growth: Tangshan, Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Tianjin, Wenzhou, Baoding, Wuxi, Huizhou, Ningbo, Qingdao, Foshan, Fuzhou, Wuhan, Yinchuan and Urumqi; Cities with slow population growth: Jinan, Guangzhou, Lhasa, Chengdu, Hefei, Nanning, Xi 'an, Luoyang, Shenyang, Haikou and Yantai; Cities with population loss: Hohhot, Xining, Kunming, Sanya, Chongqing, Changchun, Harbin, Lanzhou, Taiyuan, Guiyang, Dalian and Chongqing. Although the overall population is losing, its volume is equivalent to that of a province. If observed from the main city, the population is still growing. The 20 15 property market faces several basic factors: First, the policy is mild and warm. In fact, the government is launching a new round of combination boxing to save the property market, including changing the "shed reform" style of play, not increasing new supply, digesting the backlog of housing through the government's purchase of commercial housing as policy housing or resettlement housing, and subsidizing low-income people to rent houses. In addition, Shaoxing and other places began to increase tax rebates, increase support for property buyers' provident fund loans, cancel the 90/70 policy, cancel the restrictions on foreigners buying houses, and allow developers to pay land transfer fees. Next, it is estimated that the restrictions on issuing bonds, listing, lending and refinancing of real estate enterprises will be relaxed. Second, the funds are facing easing. It is only a matter of time before RRR is lowered in an all-round way and interest rates are lowered again, so the growth rate of M2 may rebound from 20 14. Although the moderate depreciation of RMB has a negative impact on the property market, if the range is limited, the impact will be limited. Therefore, in the next year or two, China will continue to maintain the asset bubble instead of "squeezing out the bubble", which is good for the property market. Third, the diversion of funds from the stock market to the property market has temporarily come to an end. Although in the long run, China people's wealth allocation will shift from the property market as the mainstay, supplemented by financial assets, to the financial assets as the mainstay, supplemented by the property market, but this is a long-term process, and it is necessary to establish a real market economic system and put power in the cage of the system. In addition, there is a genuine IPO registration system. Without these conditions, the "useful house" will still be the most reliable asset. At present, the stock market has encountered a "policy peak" of 3400 points, and the management is very wary of financial risks and "gambling" of industrial funds returning to the stock market, so the best time of the stock market has temporarily ended. Fourth, the market factors are not optimistic. 20 14 is the turning point of China property market. In a word, the supply of the property market exceeds demand, and only "first-tier cities" and some "strong second-tier cities" can continue to attract new immigrants, so the supply of houses is in short supply; In fact, most other cities are facing the situation of slow population growth and loss. Therefore, the demand for housing investment has been pushed from more than 2,000 cities across the country to 10 central cities, which has aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand in these central cities. According to a statistic, if all planned new districts and development zones in China are completed, it will be enough to accommodate 3.4 billion people. This statistical data comes from the reform and development center of cities and small towns of the National Development and Reform Commission. I once wrote an article "China is building houses for 3.4 billion" urban residents ". If the existing urban housing capacity is added, the final goal of urbanization in China in 10 will be completed, which is enough to accommodate the urban population all over the world. From this point, you can understand how serious the housing surplus is (this statistic does not include the crazy growth of small property houses). Therefore, the real estate market in small and medium-sized cities can definitely not be saved by the state through preferential policies or by continuing to "play with asset bubbles". But if these policies are applied to central cities, houses in these places can continue to rise. What are the useful houses in 20 15? If you live in a small or medium-sized city, keep at most two or three sets of ordinary houses in the central area, and the houses in the new area and suburbs can generally be disposed of; If you live in a big city and have a house in your hometown in a small and medium-sized city, then from the perspective of improving investment efficiency, houses in small and medium-sized cities can be sold. As for the commercial properties in the suburbs and new areas of small and medium-sized cities, especially the "on-site shop" is the most dangerous, and it is estimated that you can't sell it if you want to. As for tourism real estate and pension real estate in the third-and fourth-tier scenic spots, it is also very unreliable. As for the traditional high-priced shops in the city center, it is best not to touch them easily because they are more dangerous. As for ordinary houses in the central areas of first-tier cities, you can buy them with your eyes closed, and there is still a lot of room for appreciation in the future. Generally speaking, in second-tier cities with the titles of municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals and cities with separate plans, there is no problem with ordinary houses in the central area in the long run. In the context of China's obsession with asset bubbles, these houses can at least preserve their value and won't let your property be eroded too much by long-term inflation. (The above answer was published on 20 15- 10-08, and the current relevant housing purchase policy should be based on the actual situation. For more real estate information, policy interpretation and expert interpretation, click to view.