How many women have been ruined by giving birth to a child (a woman loses 300,000 by giving birth to a child)

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As a former top brokerage researcher and the first analyst of New Fortune, people often leave messages for me in the background, asking me to share my views on some things. However, due to limited energy, we cannot reply to everyone and cannot meet everyone's needs.

Now, declining fertility rates are an established reality. In 2019, my country's birth population was only 14.65 million, a new low in the past 40 years. The figures for 2020 have not yet been released, and according to the current trend, they will continue to fall. Referring to the National Name Report of the Ministry of Public Security, there were 11.79 million newborns born in 2019 and registered with the public security organs, and 10.035 million in 2020, a decrease of about 15%.

When talking about population issues, we need to introduce a concept, the total fertility rate, which is the average number of children each woman has in her lifetime. Generally speaking, due to reasons such as infant mortality, the total fertility rate reaches 2.1, which means that a mother has to give birth to 2.1 children in her lifetime to ensure that the number of newly born people is not less than the number of deaths in the same period, and the total population will not change with the replacement of generations. decline.

What is scary is that our country’s total fertility rate is only 1.5. This is dangerous! Because once the total fertility rate is lower than 1.5, the low fertility rate will be self-reinforcing, and it will be very difficult to return to above 1.5, just like falling into a trap, so there is a saying of "low fertility trap".

Almost no country in the world can increase its fertility rate after a significant decrease, no matter how hard it is encouraged. South Korea is a living example. In 2018, South Korea became the only country in the world with a total fertility rate below 1. According to this trend, South Korea may become the first country in the world to disappear from the earth due to population decline.

In economics, it is usually assumed that people are rational and pursue the optimization of their own economic interests. Regarding the question of whether to have children, why were you willing to have children before but not now? The answer is that in the past, having children was profitable, but now having children is unprofitable.

In the agricultural era, only the combination of land and population can create wealth. Why do emperors always say that everything in the world is the land of the king, and on the shore of the land, there are the ministers of the king. Because if you control the population and land, you will have endless wealth.

In the farming era, having children was a necessity because the cost of raising a child was very low, but the benefits of having one more child were high. One more child means one more worker, and then you can get married and have children, and continue to expand your family.

Therefore, the most troublesome problem for Malthus is that human beings like to have children too much. There are more and more people and fewer and fewer resources. He said in "On Population": People must understand that they themselves are the cause of their poverty. However, Malthus did not expect that humans would still be industrialized.

In the era of industrialization, the cost of having children is getting higher and higher. Parents have to help with milk powder, diapers, and vaccines for young children. Otherwise, hiring a nanny will not only be expensive, but also unsafe. After entering kindergarten, tuition, school uniforms, pocket money, normal weekend outings, etc., a child is simply a gold-eating beast.

Having one more child will double the expenditure. But wages are only so low, and prices are skyrocketing.

In addition, China believes in the Mencius-style education, "if there is a scholar in the family, the whole family will be busy with it." Meng's mother changed three school districts in succession for her children's education. Everyone says that children must use knowledge to change their destiny, children must go to good schools, children must attend various training classes, and they must win at the starting line.

Therefore, as long as family conditions permit, the current path for children’s education is to first buy a house in a school district, then go to a good elementary school, continue extracurricular tutoring, and then go to a good middle school and a good university. Everyone is working hard to get there. Engage in an educational arms race. However, the rising cost of childbirth has made the fertility rate lower and lower.

Another reason for the declining fertility rate is that many women do not want to have children.

Female viewers may be very angry when they see this! Why, now they are pouring dirty water on us, and we are also to blame for the declining fertility rate. It's so disrespectful to treat us as fertility machines.

Don’t worry, everyone. Nowadays, many women do not want to have children because having children is not worth the gain for them.

In modern times, women who have achieved economic independence do not need to be dependent on men for their existence. But when you have a baby, you can’t go to work. When you have a child, the child comes first and work comes second. So can you still work? When you lose your job, you lose your best self. After all, the economic base determines the superstructure.

Previous studies have shown that urban women across the country lose about 300,000 yuan in income for every child they give birth to. For women in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, their income loss is twice the national average. If having children will lead to lower competitiveness in the workplace, lower income levels, and lower quality of life, then why bother!

Moreover, the living reality also makes many women shy away from having children and even marriage. Someone has summarized the four major tragedies of Chinese women: "mother-style mate selection, nanny-style wife, widowed parenting, and widowed marriage." If you want to work and take care of your family, you have to endure double hardships and fatigue if you want to do well. , you have to put in double or even more energy, and it is not easy to find a balance point. Finally, many people will also say: Looking after children is to rest.

Recently, a full-time housewife only received 50,000 yuan in compensation after divorce, which really chilled the hearts of many women. When he wanted to divorce, the man pointed at the woman and said: Why do you want children? The woman said: You have never taken care of the child for a day in so many years. I took care of it all by myself when he was sick and went to school! The man is still eloquent, but it’s not because I make money!

There is nothing wrong with dedication in itself most of the time, but if this behavior is tied to a special identity and praised, it is moral kidnapping. But in fact, we all hate moral kidnapping!

It is an objective reality that the fertility rate is declining year by year, so how can we increase the fertility rate? Easier said than implemented, that is to make not having children a disadvantage and childbearing a benefit. While we respect that some people choose not to have children, we will truly help reduce their burden and create favorable conditions for those who are willing to have children.

Some people say that another way to solve the population problem is immigration. After all, compared to spending a lot of money to cultivate a person, it seems to be a huge profit to get a labor force to come in with a stamp. But is it acceptable for everyone to rely on immigration to solve the population problem? Discussions are welcome.

References:

1 Population in China[J].Contemporary Sociology, Cameron Campbell

2 Population and Development in China: Revisit Introduction, Tu, Edward Jow-Ching

3 Achieving Lower Preterm Birth Rates in China via Reductions in Iatrogenic Preterm Births, Zhong, Nanbert

4 China’s population development in 70 years, Zhang Chewei et al.

5 China’s population history, Cao Shuji

6 Population and demography, Peng Xizhe

7 Principles of population, Malthus

8 Research on China’s population and macroeconomic issues Review, Song Shujie et al.

9 Can sustained economic growth be achieved in the era of negative population growth?, Liu Houlian et al.

10 Several misunderstandings about China’s population-economic relationship under the new pattern, Zhong Shuiying etc.

11 Research on the impact of population age structure changes on economic growth, Xiao Yiping

12 How much is the cost of childbearing for urban women in China?, Liu Jinju