Will the population of India surpass that of China in the near future?

There is an obvious population problem in China, and the Indian population structure now presents a nearly perfect pyramid shape. The average age in India is 28, while in China it is 38.

The fertility rate in India is around 2.4, while that in China is 1.4. The population problem in China is obvious, and the Indian population structure now presents a nearly perfect pyramid shape. The median age in India is 28, and the fertility level in India is 70% higher than that in China. The number of newborns in India is about 22 million, while that in China is only160,000. This means that the number of newborns in India is 40% more than that in China every year. In addition, it is estimated that the gap will increase to 60% in 10.

India also has the basic elements of a high-income country. Like China, India has the basic elements of a high-income country: a stable government, an open and free market, high-quality education and a growing export industry. When India reaches the middle income level in 2040, it will have the largest population and the largest scale advantage in the world.

English is also India's advantage. Indian talents with better English can enter the world market more easily, Indian enterprises can operate around the world more easily, and Indian academic circles can integrate with other parts of the world more easily. In addition, the advantage of English enables India to attract more immigrants. By 2040, India's economic growth rate will surpass that of China, thus further narrowing the per capita GDP gap between China and India.

Meanwhile, the fertility rate in India will continue to be significantly higher than that in China. Therefore, the population of India is expected to reach 654.38+06 billion, which is about 30% higher than that of China (654.38+02 billion). The working-age population in India is about 800 million, while that in China is 500 million, almost 60% higher than that in China. Therefore, even if India's labor productivity is only 2/3 of that of China, India's total economic output will eventually be greater than that of China and much higher than that of the United States.

By 2080, the Indian youth labor force aged 20-39 will exceed 400 million, twice that of China. The young labor force is the most creative and entrepreneurial group in the labor force. Not only will there be more young workers in India, but young people in India will become better innovators and entrepreneurs than China, because China will be hindered by an aging economy. By the end of 2 1 century, Indian innovation is likely to surpass that of China.