The latest population policy

The family planning policy is about to undergo major adjustments. In October 2020, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations clearly required "implementation of a national strategy to actively respond to population aging. Formulate a long-term population development strategy, optimize fertility policies, and enhance the inclusiveness of fertility policies."

Li Jiheng, Minister of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, wrote in a relevant guidance book that "optimize the fertility policy, promote long-term balanced development of the population, and improve the quality of the population. This is a fundamental strategy to actively respond to the aging of the population and continue to maintain social vitality. ”

The population issue is both a family matter and a national matter. It is a fundamental, overall and strategic issue. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe regarded the declining birthrate as a national crisis, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia's destiny and historical prospects depend on its population. Due to the long-term implementation of family planning, the problem of low birthrate and aging population has become one of the most serious problems facing China in the 21st century. China is facing both a total population crisis, in which the total population is about to peak and will shrink sharply in the long term, and a structural crisis, in which the population is declining, birthrate is declining, and the population is aging.

In 2019, China's birth population dropped to 14.65 million, and the population aged 65 and above accounted for 12.6%. The total population will inevitably enter negative growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Demographic factors are changing slowly but with great momentum. According to current trends, with the complete disappearance of the effects of the comprehensive two-child policy, improvement in education levels, and advancement of urbanization, the total fertility rate will drop from 1.5 in 2019 to around 1.0-1.2 in the future. Based on an estimated total fertility rate of 1.0, the total population will be 1.21 billion and 520 million in 2050 and 2100 respectively, and the proportion of elderly people will be 31.2% and 53.4% ??respectively. Even with a slightly optimistic total fertility rate of 1.4, the total population will be 1.27 billion and 730 million in 2050 and 2100 respectively, and the proportion of elderly people will be 29.6% and 40.7% respectively.

If China wants to successfully realize the "Chinese Dream" of national rejuvenation and long-term stand among the world's nations, it must correctly understand the inherent laws of population development and the relationship between population and economic and social development. We recommend returning reproductive rights to family autonomy as soon as possible, fully liberalizing and encouraging childbearing to raise the total fertility rate to the level of generational replacement, and accelerating the construction of a system that actively responds to population aging so that everyone has support and medical care when they grow old.