Does Thailand's fertility rate depend on immigrants or immigrants?

Nowadays, it is no secret that the trend of "fewer children" and "aging" around the world. In China and the United States, for example, the stagnation of population growth has increasingly become the primary problem to be solved.

On the morning of May 1 1, the National Bureau of Statistics held a press conference to release the detailed data of the seventh national census.

According to the census results, by 0: 00 in 2020,165438+1October 65438, the population of China will be * * *141780,000, and in 2065438 it will be/

The average annual growth rate of the national population in previous censuses

Just a few days before the data of the seventh census in China were released, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also released the population data of the United States in 2020, and the situation was also not optimistic.

According to CDC data, the birth rate in the United States will drop by 4% in 2020, and about 3.6 million babies will be born, which is the sixth consecutive year of decline and the lowest level since 1979.

Even this year, the newborn data in the United States is still unsatisfactory. An analysis released by the Associated Press in April found that compared with the same month last year, the birth rates in February 2020, 202 1, 1 and 202 1 decreased by 6.5%, 9.3% and 10% respectively.

With the rapid decline of fertility rate, the population will become more and more aging, which will undoubtedly hinder economic growth.

Although China and the United States are not there yet, it must be the most convenient and direct solution to learn from other countries with a higher degree of aging.

As we all know, Japan's declining birthrate ranks among the top in the world. According to the new data released by the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare on the 25th of this month, as of March 20021year, the total number of newborns in Japan dropped by 4.7%, and the total number just exceeded 850,000. The uncertainty brought by the epidemic has aggravated the country's population crisis.

However, under the general trend of declining collective fertility rate in Japan, Langmachi is a "heterogeneous". In the past nine years, this small town has successfully raised the birth rate from 65,438+0.4 children per woman to 2.8 children by making extensive family-friendly policy plans.

In Langmachi, families can get baby bonuses and child allowances, and the cost of sending their children to kindergarten is half of the national average in Japan. Similar "high fertility" towns have also introduced similar incentives. For example, the reward for the first child is about $940, and the fourth child is raised to $9,400.

It can be said that its success is extraordinary, and it has great reference significance for other areas with similar cultures in East Asia.

However, more are counterexamples. From 2005 to 20 19, South Korea spent more than 654.38+30 billion dollars to reward family fertility.

Specifically, Korean parents can get universal free child care services, subsidized housing and a series of cash bonuses, including a monthly allowance of about $90 for each child under 7 years old. Some cities even offer free parking and other benefits to make life more convenient for residents who want to get married.

Last year, the Korean government announced plans to increase maternity allowance. Pregnant women will receive a "congratulations" allowance of $965,438+06, and then about $65,438+0,800 during childbirth and $275 per month in the first year after the birth of the child.

But none of these measures seem to work, and South Korea is still one of the countries with the lowest fertility rate in the world.

The general attitude of Korean young people is: "I don't want to have children anymore!" "It's hard to raise a child, so I just want to focus on him!" ……

Erin Hye Won Kim, an assistant professor of fertility in East Asia at Seoul National University, said, "In Korea, we have legal working hours and maternity and paternity leave policies. But the usage rate is really low, especially when my father is on holiday. This is actually an implementation issue. "

Changes in the population structure of South Korea

Similar Asian countries include Singapore. In the 1970s, increasingly crowded Singapore began to encourage people to have fewer children, giving priority to small families in health care, education and government housing.

At 1987, the fertility rate dropped sharply, and Singapore began to reverse its direction and introduce new policies. Now, the subsidy per baby has reached $7,330.

However, these interventions have not changed the status quo. Singapore is currently the third lowest fertility country in the world. In the past year, with the birth rate falling to an all-time low, the government doubled the subsidies for families with two children and increased the subsidies for pre-school education and fertility treatment.

Not only in East Asian countries such as South Korea, China and Japan, but also in most developed countries, there is a general conflict between work culture and family life.

In this regard, one option that the government can take is to make part-time jobs more accessible, because the data shows that the more part-time jobs, the higher the fertility rate.

However, the "side effects" are also serious. More often, women engage in these part-time jobs, which inhibits gender equality, which is not ideal for a country with an aging population, because it further reduces the labor force.

So, are there any cases where women can stay in full-time jobs and improve the fertility rate? There are also some. Sweden is praised for its family-friendly way, not only in the government, but also in enterprises.

Professor gunnar Anderson, head of the population group at Stockholm University, said: "We know that at some stage in life, both women and men have children, and sometimes they have to go home from work early."

Besides, there are other ways to make work flexible without reducing working hours.

A study on 20 17 shows that in Germany, the increase of broadband access is positively related to the increase of the fertility rate of women with higher education. Because women who work at home find that they can spend more time with their children, they choose to have more children.

Professor Anna Rotkel, who advises the Finnish government on fertility, said that there may be a similar situation in Finland now. The country slightly increased the birth rate during the epidemic last year, thus reversing the downward trend of the birth rate.

Professor Rotkirch believes that Finland's education system has played a role to some extent, because it has turned to online learning very smoothly.

But she also noticed another thing-when discussing the experience of raising children at home, women in different parts of Europe are very different.

"What I got from England is that women are really desperate because of family education, husband's powerlessness and all these strong objections to equality," Rotkel said. But in Finland, I have never heard such a sharp conversation. "

The survey data show that in all the countries studied, women have less free time than men because they do more unpaid housework at home.

Erin Hye Won Kim of Seoul National University found that when men do more housework at home, the fertility rate will increase. She studied families with one child and found that when men do an extra hour of housework at home every week, the chances of having a second child in this family will increase significantly.

Similar practices have been practiced in Nordic countries for many years. In Sweden, the fertility rate rose in the first decade of 2 1 century, partly because of heavily subsidized child care.

Mom and dad can also enjoy a long vacation after giving birth. At present, the number of days of parental leave for fathers is about 30% of that for mothers. "Parental care is no small matter. In the first year and a half of the child's birth, they assumed the main responsibility of the child. " Professor Gunnar Anderson said.

With the growth of age, the pattern of caring for children or doing housework formed in children's early life is often inherited. In Sweden, 73% of women and 56% of men do housework at least 1 hour every day, which is far better than the European average (74% of women and 34% of men).

However, the so-called "Nordic model" is also facing a severe test. In the past decade, the fertility rate in the Nordic countries has also declined. Norway and Finland are in a sharp decline stage, while Sweden is slightly better and in a steady decline stage.

Professor George Leeson of the Institute of Population Aging at Oxford University said: "From a demographic point of view, the so-called' fewer children' and' aging' are actually not a problem."

Because since the 1970s, the fertility rate in western Europe has been below the replacement level, but the population has continued to grow. "The population is updated and supplemented by immigration," he said. "In addition, the reduction of labor force can also be compensated by delaying retirement."

However, it is obviously difficult for ordinary people to accept Professor Li Sen's views, so governments of all countries should take a comprehensive and macro view of fertility.

Professor Rotkirch said that the ultimate goal of the policy should be to make people have no worries about childbirth. "It affects the happiness of children and parents. It is probably the most important thing that the child born is well. "