Discuss the development, present situation and prospect of Europe after World War II.

Marshall Plan, officially named European Renaissance Plan, is a plan for the United States to provide economic assistance and reconstruction to war-damaged western European countries after World War II, which has had a far-reaching impact on the development of European countries and the world political situation.

After the victory of the European battlefield in World War II, the United States proposed to help European allies restore the economic system that was on the verge of collapse due to World War II, and at the same time put forward this plan to counter the further infiltration and expansion of the Soviet Union and capitalist forces in Europe. The plan was named after george marshall, then US Secretary of State, but in fact it was put forward and planned by many officials in the State Council, especially William Clayton and George Kennan.

The reconstruction plan was first put forward at a meeting attended by European countries in July 1947. Marshall Plan initially considered giving the same aid to the Soviet Union and its satellite countries in Eastern Europe, provided that the Soviet Union must carry out political reforms and allow western forces to enter the Soviet sphere of influence. But in fact, the United States was worried that the Soviet Union would use the plan to restore and develop its own strength, so it deliberately put forward many harsh conditions that the Soviet Union could not accept, and eventually excluded it and eastern European countries from the scope of assistance.

The plan was officially launched in July 1947 and lasted for four fiscal years. During this period, Western European countries obtained various forms of assistance from the United States through their participation in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), including funds, technology and equipment, totaling $654.38+0.3 billion. If inflation is taken into account, this aid was equivalent to $654.38+030 billion in 2006.

When the plan came to an end, the national economies of most participating countries in western Europe except Germany (Marshall Plan will be mentioned later, theoretically including the whole of Germany, not just the Federal Republic of Germany) have recovered to the pre-war level. In the next 20 years, the whole western Europe experienced an unprecedented period of rapid development, and the social economy showed a scene of prosperity, which can be said to be related to the Marshall Plan. At the same time, Marshall Plan has long been regarded as one of the important factors contributing to European integration. Because the plan has eliminated or weakened the long-standing tariff and trade barriers between western European countries in history, at the same time, it has made the economic ties of western European countries closer and closer, and finally moved towards integration. At the same time, the plan also enables western European countries to systematically learn and adapt to the experience of the United States in economic management.

In recent years, historians have begun to pay attention to the study of the deep motivation and influence of Marshall Plan. Now some historians believe that the Marshall Plan can achieve certain results, in fact, because of the new laissez-faire policy and the stabilizing effect of the market on economic growth under this policy. At present, there is also a view that the original intention of the United States to implement this plan is to restore the European economy through aid, making it an important force and tool to counter the Soviet Union, and at the same time making it easier for the United States to control and occupy the European market. But in fact, the later development trend of European economy has not made it a vassal of the United States, but has become an important force that can compete with the United States on the world economic stage through integration and other means. At the same time, there are many criticisms in the United States that the Marshall Plan has set a precedent for using taxpayers' money to help other countries.

Implementation of Marshall Plan

1947+ 10 delivered a batch of substantial aid to Greece and Turkey. This is not only because it is regarded as the front line to resist the expansion of capitalism, but also because both countries benefited from Truman Doctrine and received a considerable amount of early assistance. Initially, Britain provided assistance to the anti-* * forces in these two countries. However, due to its poor economic situation at this time, it is difficult to persist, so Britain asked the United States to continue to bear this responsibility.

The first page of Marshall Plan1948 In July, the General Administration of Economic Cooperation began to operate formally. In the same year, the organization issued its mission statement, which includes: promoting European economic progress, promoting European production development, providing support for European countries' currency issuance, and promoting international trade (especially trade with the United States, because its economic interests require Europe to be rich enough to import American goods). Another unacknowledged goal of the General Administration of Economic Cooperation (and Marshall Plan) is to curb the expansion of Soviet power in Europe, especially the growth of the power of the production parties in Czechoslovakia, France and Italy.

The funds involved in the Marshall Plan are usually delivered to European governments first. All funds are managed by the host government and the General Administration of Economic Cooperation. A special envoy of the General Administration of Economic Cooperation will be stationed in the capital of each participating country. This position is generally held by a well-known American business person. Their duty is to make suggestions during the implementation of the plan. The General Administration of Economic Cooperation not only encourages all parties to cooperate in allocating aid funds, but also organizes a consultative group composed of government, industrial and commercial and labor leaders to assess the economic situation and decide on the specific flow of aid funds.

Europeans used most of the Marshall Plan's aid funds to import goods produced in the United States. European countries consumed almost all their foreign exchange reserves in World War II, so the assistance brought by Marshall Plan was almost the only foreign exchange source they imported from abroad. At the beginning of the implementation of the plan, European countries mostly used aid to import urgently needed necessities, such as food and fuel, but then the direction of bulk import turned to the raw materials and products originally needed for reconstruction. In the following years, under the dual pressure of the US Congress and the outbreak of the Korean War, the United States still invested a lot of money to rebuild the armaments of European countries, and this number increased year by year. According to statistics, by the mid-term of 195 1, of the * * *1300 million dollars of aid funds provided, 3.4 billion dollars were used to import raw materials and semi-finished products, 3.2 billion dollars were used to buy grain, feed and fertilizer,1900 million dollars were used to import heavy industrial products such as machinery, vehicles and heavy equipment, and 60 million dollars were used.

At the same time, a counterpart fund has been set up, and the function of this project is to convert the aid funds of Marshall Plan into funds composed of local currency. According to the articles of association of the General Administration of Economic Cooperation, no less than 60% of the funds will be used for manufacturing investment. This is most prominent in Germany. Under the control of the local government, most of these funds are used to lend to private enterprises, which makes them play an important role in promoting the reconstruction process. The fund also played a central role in Germany's re-industrialization. Take 1949-50 as an example, 40% of the total investment in German coal mining industry is provided by this fund. For enterprises that borrow money, they must repay it on time. After repayment, this part of the funds will be lent again soon. At that time, this process was carried out under the disguise of German state-owned bank KFW (Kreditanstalt fü r Wiederaufbau). This fund was later managed by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs. By 197 1 year, its figure will still be1000 million Deutsche Mark. In 1997, this figure has reached 23 billion German marks. Through this revolving credit system, by the end of 1995, about140 billion Deutsche Mark had been lent to many German citizens in the form of low-interest loans. The remaining 40% of the corresponding funds are used to repay foreign debts, stabilize the currency and invest in non-industrial projects. France uses matching funds the most widely. They mainly use this money to offset the budget deficit. Not only in France, but also in most other participating countries, most of the money in the corresponding funds is regarded as the general income of the government, rather than being used for repeated private loans like Germany.

Another less expensive but equally effective plan is the technical assistance plan, which is also led by the General Administration of Economic Cooperation. This program supports European technicians and entrepreneurs to visit factories and mines in the United States, so that they can apply the advanced experience and system of the United States to their own countries. At the same time, hundreds of American technicians went to Europe as technical consultants with the help of this plan.

Current situation and development trend of European economy

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Current situation and development trend of European economy

I. Basic situation of European economy

According to the economic forecast report of the European Commission, due to the active and favorable internal conditions of the world economy, the economic growth rates of the 27 EU countries and 13 euro zone countries reached 3.0% and 2.7% respectively in 2006, which was the highest level in the last six years. In 2006, the EU's better-than-expected economic situation was mainly driven by internal demand, specifically, the profit rate of enterprises was high, optimistic enterprises expected to promote the obvious expansion of equipment investment, and private consumption increased moderately due to employment increase. At the same time, the external departments of EU countries continue to play an active role in economic growth, and the exports of EU countries increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Economic surveys within the European Union show that almost all indicators of economic confidence have been rising since mid-2005 (only the construction industry reached its peak in the autumn of 2006 and then declined slightly). In the first half of 2006, the EU economy still maintained strong growth; The European Commission's "dynamic factor model" predicts that the economic growth rate of the euro zone will be 0.6%~0.7% in the first three quarters of 2007. This shows that the European economy has formed a broad and stable recovery trend. Therefore, the European Commission predicts that in 2007, the EU economy will grow by 2.9% and the euro zone by 2.6%. In 2008, it will be 2.7% and 2.5% respectively. If these predictions are finally realized, the EU's economic growth rate will be higher than its potential growth rate for three consecutive years, which will also be the best economic situation in Europe since this century.

In addition, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted in its economic outlook report for the first half of 2007 that the economic growth rate of the euro zone may reach 2.7% this year, which will make the economic growth rate of the euro zone higher than that of the United States for the first time since 200 1. The forecast of the International Monetary Fund also believes that the economic growth rate of the euro zone will be slightly faster than that of the United States this year.

The impact of EU's economic growth on its labor market has already appeared in 2006. The EU created 3.3 million new jobs (including 2 million in the euro zone), and the unemployment rate dropped below 8%. The European Commission predicts that 5.5 million jobs will be created in the EU this year and next (including 3.8 million in the euro zone), and the unemployment rate will drop to the lowest level since the early 1990s. The unemployment rate in the EU will drop to 7.2% and 6.7% this year and next, and the unemployment rate in the euro zone will drop to 7.3% and 6.9% respectively.

With the improvement of economic growth, inflation and public finances in the EU will improve. Affected by the rising prices of oil and other energy sources, the inflation rate (consumer price coordination index) in the EU and the Eurozone was above 2.2% at the beginning of 2006, but it fell below 2% in the second half of the year. It is predicted that in 2007, the inflation rates in the EU and the Eurozone will remain low, 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. At the same time, the EU's average fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP dropped from 2.4% in 2005 to 1.7% in 2006 (the euro zone dropped from 2.5% to1.6%); Due to the influence of economic growth and tax elasticity, it is estimated that the average fiscal deficit in the EU will be reduced to 1.2% in 2007 (to 1% in the euro zone), but there are still five countries (Portugal, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania) whose fiscal deficits may exceed the upper limit of 3%. Due to the improvement of financial situation, in 2006, the average ratio of public debt to GDP in the EU dropped by more than 1 percentage point, to 6 1.7%, and to 69% in the euro zone. The average public debt of the EU and the Eurozone will continue to decline this year and next, and will be reduced to 58.3% and 65% respectively in 2008.

Among the major EU countries, Germany's economic growth rate will reach 2.5% and 2.4% this year and next, and the unemployment rate will drop to 7.3% and 6.5% respectively. France's economic growth rate this year and next will be 2.4% and 2.3% respectively, and the unemployment rate will remain at a high level of 8.9% this year, and it is expected to drop to 8.5% next year. Britain's economic growth this year and next will be 2.8% and 2.5% respectively, and the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.4%. Italy's economic growth this year and next will also reach 1.9% and 1.7%.

Second, the analysis of European economic growth factors

Economic growth in Europe can be analyzed from two aspects: cyclical factors and long-term structural factors.

From the perspective of cyclical factors, the basic change law of European economic cycle is that export growth promotes economic recovery as the early driving force, and then stimulates domestic demand growth (investment first, then consumption), thus continuously promoting economic growth. Because there is no unexpected economic shock in the rising stage of this economic cycle in Europe, it basically conforms to this law. At present, the EU's economic growth remains stable, mainly due to rising internal demand and strong export growth, which means that exports, investment and consumption are in a strong or rising trend. From the perspective of internal demand, investment has become the main driving force of economic growth since the second half of 2006. In addition, due to the expected increase in demand, high profit rate of enterprises, good financial situation, high capacity utilization rate and investment in new technologies, equipment investment has maintained strong growth. At the same time, private consumption formed a steady growth trend in 2007, and may gradually become the main driving force of economic growth. It is predicted that its contribution rate to economic growth will increase from 1% in 2006 to 1.5% in 2008. The main reason is that employment growth, wage growth and slightly lower inflation rate support the increase of real labor income, and the decrease of unemployment rate promotes the increase of consumer confidence.

Judging from the previous economic cycles, the cycle time difference between Europe and the United States is about six months to one year. The decline in the economic growth rate of the United States in 2007 will definitely have an impact on the economic growth rate of Europe next year. However, in 2007, the world economy was less affected by the economic downturn in the United States, especially in China and Asia. In recent years, Europe has increased its economic ties with Asia, which may partially offset the impact of the US economic downturn.

Regarding the long-term structural factors, we can observe them from the following aspects.

The first is the new economic factor. Compared with the 1990s, the United States is growing strongly under the impetus of the new economy, while the development of Europe is obviously lagging behind. From the beginning of this century, Europe began to catch up with the United States under the Lisbon strategy, with the goal of establishing a knowledge-based economy. For example, the Nordic countries keep pace with the United States in electronic and network technologies, and the gap between Europe and the United States in the new economy is narrowing.

The second is economic restructuring. The reform of European economic structure aims at increasing the labor participation rate, promoting R&D and innovation, increasing investment in human capital (education and training) and creating a good business environment. The basic idea of welfare system reform related to the labor market is to change passive relief of unemployment into active promotion of employment (such as employment subsidies, unemployment insurance, training and new job introduction). Although the economic restructuring in Europe, which began at the turn of the century, has made slow progress, it has gradually had a positive impact. For example, in 2006, the labor productivity in the euro zone increased by 1%, while the average annual growth in the previous year was less than 0.7%.

Third, the German economy resumed growth. The German economy has basically got rid of the sequelae of the reunification of Germany and Germany. Its economic growth rate has increased from about 1% in the previous year to 2.7% in 2006, and is expected to be 2.5% and 2.4% this year and next. The fiscal deficit will account for less than 3% of GDP. The internal changes of the German economy include: in recent years, the wage growth has been slow (even the working hours have been increased under the condition of basically unchanged wages), and some production has been transferred to low-cost areas to improve external competitiveness; Labor market reform reduced the unemployment rate to 7.5%; The burden of reunification between Germany and Germany has been reduced, such as the reduction of transfer payments (social relief rather than investment) to the eastern region, the basic completion of infrastructure investment, the reduction of housing subsidies, and the narrowing of the high wage gap that exceeds the actual productivity. With the eastern part of Germany no longer being a lagging factor of the whole German economy and shifting to independent growth, Germany is expected to become the economic engine of the European continent again.

Fourth, the economies of the new EU member states maintained a strong growth momentum. The newly joined Central and Eastern European countries are in the period of accelerating the development of catching up with the old member countries due to economic transformation, and a series of economic integration policies of the European Union are also conducive to the economic growth of the new member countries. Therefore, it is predicted that the economic growth rate of the new EU member States will reach 5.4% in 2007, which is slightly slower than the 5.9% in 2006, but its overall strong growth momentum may be maintained for several years.

Third, the European economy.

At present, the European economy is also facing some factors that may affect its sustained growth, such as the high fluctuation of oil prices and the continuous appreciation of the euro, which may reduce the export growth of the euro zone and lose its role in promoting economic growth. More importantly, if the US economy falls sharply this year and the global financial imbalance intensifies, it will inevitably have a negative impact on European economic growth, and the current level of consumption expenditure in the EU is still difficult to support its sustained economic growth.

From the characteristics of the rising stage of this economic cycle, there are also some problems. Compared with the average growth rate of the previous four economic cycles, the current economic growth rate of the EU is about 1.5 percentage points, which is mainly caused by the low growth rate of private consumption. The reason is that although employment increases with economic growth, the increase of wages is much lower than that in the last economic cycle, which leads to the slow growth of private consumption. If this situation cannot be improved this year and next, the stamina of European economic growth will remain weak.

From the long-term structural factors, the main problems of European economy include: the current potential growth rate is lower than that in the 1980 s and 1990 s; The reform of welfare system aimed at increasing the flexibility of the labor market in the European Union has made slow progress in some member countries. The aging population brings more and more pressure to the sound finance. Therefore, in the face of the current gloomy economic situation, Almunia, the Economic Executive Committee of the European Commission, cautiously warned: "We must maintain the sustained economic recovery by improving the foundation of public finance and promoting the reform process. This will reduce public debt and increase the potential growth rate before the aging problem is serious. "