Innovation and Entrepreneurship Chapter 7 Sources of Innovation Opportunities 5: Demographic Data 1

Among all external changes, demographic data-usually defined as population, population size, age structure, population composition, employment, education and income-are the most clear and easy to understand, and will not cause any confusion at all, and these data have predictable results.

In addition, they have widely known and almost certain intervals. Nowadays, people who will become members of the American labor force in 2000 have been born (although they may not be in the United States, for example, many American workers after 15 may still be children of an Indian village in Mexico). In developed countries, all people who reach retirement age in 2030 are now members of the workforce, and in most cases, they will work in the workplace until retirement or death. The education level of people in their early twenties will largely determine their career path in the next 40 years.

Demographic data have a great influence on who buys what and how much. For example, teenagers in America buy many pairs of cheap shoes a year. They buy fashion instead of durability, and their economic ability is limited. 10 years later, the same people will only buy a few pairs of shoes a year-1/6 of the number they bought when they were 0/7 years old-but they will consider the comfort and durability of shoes first, and then consider the fashion. In developed countries, the elderly in their sixties and seventies, that is, those who have just retired, constitute the main tourism and holiday market. 10 years later, these people became customers of retirement communities, nursing homes and long-term (and expensive) medical care. Dual-income families earn more money, but have less disposable time, so they spend according to this situation. People who have received comprehensive education when they are young, especially professional or technical education, 10~20 years later will become customers of advanced professional training.

People with a comprehensive education are mainly engaged in knowledge work. Due to the decrease of infant mortality rate after 1955, the number of young people in third world countries has soared. These surplus young people usually only receive unskilled or semi-skilled manual labor training. Therefore, even if there is no competition from low-wage countries, western developed countries and Japan will have to implement automation. From the demographic data alone (the sharp drop of birth rate and the general improvement of education level have produced a comprehensive effect), we can almost conclude that by 20 10, the number of traditional blue-collar workers in the manufacturing field in developed countries will be almost only 0/3 of that in 1970 (although the output of manufacturing industry may be three or four times that in 1970 due to the implementation of automation).

These situations are so obvious that people may think it unnecessary to mention the importance of demographic data. In fact, businessmen, economists and politicians have always recognized the importance of population trends, population mobility and population dynamics. But they still believe that they don't need to pay more attention to demographic data in their daily decision-making. Population changes-whether birth rate or death rate, education level, composition and participation rate of labor force, resettlement and migration of population, etc. -It is generally considered that progress is rather slow and takes a long time, so there is no need for practical attention. Some major population disasters, such as the "Black Death" that spread in Europe in the14th century, are recognized as having a direct impact on the social and economic system. But beyond that, population change is still considered as a "long-term" change, which can only arouse the interest of historians and statisticians, but not businessmen and managers.

This has always been a dangerous misunderstanding. In the19th century, many people immigrated from Europe to South America, North America, Australia and New Zealand. This large-scale migration has greatly changed the economic geography and political geography of the world, and the degree of change is completely beyond people's actual understanding. Created many entrepreneurial opportunities; It makes the geopolitical concept that has been the basis of European politics and military strategy for centuries obsolete. All this happened in a short period of 50 years, that is, from 65438 to the mid-1960s to 19 14. Anyone who ignores it may soon be abandoned by the times.

For example, before 1860, the Rothschild family, a huge Jewish family that ruled the European banking industry, had a history of 250 years and was one of the top ten wealth families in the world. Has always dominated world finance. However, they didn't realize the importance of transatlantic immigration and thought that only "social scum" would leave Europe. As a result, around 1870, the Rothschild family lost its dominant position in the past and just became rich. Its leading position was replaced by J.P. Morgan. The "secret" of his success was that he noticed these overseas immigrants from the beginning and understood their importance. He took this phenomenon as an opportunity to follow the trend. Therefore, he set up a World Bank in new york instead of Europe to finance the American industries of these immigrants. In addition, in a short period of 30 years (1830~ 1860), western Europe and the eastern United States have transformed from rural and rural societies into industrialized metropolitan civilizations.

In earlier years, changes in population data were usually equally rapid, sudden and influential. The idea that the population changes slowly with time is completely absurd. Or we can say that from a historical point of view, the population of a place has remained unchanged for a long time, which is an exception and an anomaly.

Today in the 20th century, it is quite foolish to ignore demographic data. In our time, a basic assumption about the population should be that the population itself is unstable and will mutate at any time. Population data is the first environmental factor for decision makers (whether businessmen or politicians) to analyze and think about problems. For example, in the 20th century, the problem of population aging in developed countries and the problem of youth surplus in third world countries were of great importance to domestic and international politics. Whatever the reason, the 20th century society, including developed and developing countries, is more and more prone to rapid and drastic demographic changes, and it will happen without warning.

1938, franklin roosevelt convened the most outstanding American population experts for research. They unanimously predicted that the population of the United States will reach 1.943 or 1.944, and then slowly decline. However, now the population of the United States, together with the minimum number of immigrants, has reached 240 million. The reason is that 1949, the United States began its "baby boom" without warning. 12 years, the United States produced an unprecedented family. However, from 1960, it suddenly turned into a "low birth tide", which produced many small families that were also unprecedented. 1938 demographers are by no means stupid or incompetent, just because there were no signs that there would be a "baby boom" at that time.

Twenty years later, another American president, John F. Kennedy, also called a group of outstanding experts and asked them to draft a plan for assistance and development in Latin America-"Alliance for Progress". At that time (196 1), no expert noticed the sharp drop in infant mortality, which completely changed the socio-economic situation in Latin America in the following 15 years. These experts still unanimously assume that Latin America is a hinterland without reservation. Of course, these experts are not fools or incompetent. Because at that time, the decline of infant mortality in Latin America and the urbanization of society had hardly begun.

During the period of 1972 and 1973, the most experienced labor force analysts in the United States still undoubtedly believed that the number of women participating in the work, similar to the situation in recent years, would continue to decrease. When the "baby boomers" flooded into the labor market in an unprecedented number, they began to worry (which proved to be unnecessary) about where the jobs needed by so many young people came from. However, no one has asked young women where the jobs they need come from, because people think they don't need any employment opportunities at all. After 10, 64% of American women under 50 entered the labor market, which is an unprecedented record. In this group of professional women, it doesn't make much difference whether they are married or have children.

These changes not only happened unexpectedly and suddenly, but also came quite mysteriously and elusive. The decline of infant mortality in third world countries can be explained by retrospective method, which consists of old technology (public health care, building toilets downstream of water sources, vaccination and installing screens on windows) and new technology (antibiotics and DDT(DDT is a colorless pesticide that spreads through contact and is toxic to people and animals after being swallowed or absorbed by epidermis). Since 1972, many applications have been banned in the United States. -) and other pesticides). However, the occurrence of this change is completely unpredictable. In addition, how to explain the phenomenon of "baby boom" or "low birth rate"? How to explain the phenomenon that American women (European women, too, just delayed for several years) flock to join the employment force? How to explain the poverty in Latin American cities?

The population changes in the 20th century may be unpredictable in nature, but there will always be a long interval before it will have an impact, and this interval is predictable. It takes five or six years for newborn babies to enter kindergarten, and then they need classrooms, playgrounds and teachers. It takes fifteen or sixteen years to become an important consumer; It takes 19~20 years to become an adult and join the ranks of the employment force. As soon as the infant mortality rate in Latin America began to decline, its population began to grow rapidly. However, five or six years later, those who survived did not become students, and those who were fifteen or sixteen did not find jobs. It will take at least 65,438+00 years-usually 65,438+05 years-to transform educational achievements into components of the labor force and skills that the labor force can use.

Population change can become a favorable opportunity for entrepreneurs because it is ignored by ordinary decision makers, whether businessmen, public service personnel or government decision makers. They still insist that the population has not changed, or that it has changed rapidly. In fact, they turn a blind eye to the most obvious evidence of demographic change. The following are some quite typical examples.

By 1970, the number of students in the United States was significantly reduced by 25% to 30% compared with that in the 1960s, and this situation will continue for at least 10 15 years. After all, 1970 children who go to kindergarten will not be born later than 1965, and it is impossible to quickly reverse the phenomenon of "low fertility rate" at that time. However, the colleges of education in American universities flatly refused to accept this fact. They believe that the number of school-age children will definitely increase year by year, and regard this as a natural law. Therefore, they strive to recruit new students. As a result, a large number of graduates lost their jobs a few years later, and the treatment of teachers faced downward pressure, and many schools were forced to close.

Here are two examples of my personal experience. At 1957, I published a forecast chart. I think that in 25 years, that is, in the mid-1970s, the number of college students in the United States will reach 654.38+million ~ 654.38+02 million. This figure is only obtained by considering two simultaneous demographic statistics: the increase in the number of births and the increase in the number of young people going to college. This prediction is absolutely correct. However, in fact, every regular university scoffs. Twenty years later, that is, 1976, after observing the data about age, I predict that in 10, the retirement age in the United States will be raised to 70 or completely abolished. And this change happened faster than I predicted: one year later, 1977, California abolished the compulsory retirement system, and two years later (1978), other States in the United States also abolished the requirement of having to retire before the age of 70. The demographic statistics that make this prediction so accurate are widely known and made public. However, most so-called experts-government economists, trade union economists, enterprise economists and statisticians-think this prediction is absurd. Their unanimous reaction was "This will never happen". In fact, the trade union also suggested that the mandatory retirement age should be advanced to 60 or below.

This demographic situation that experts are unwilling (or unable) to accept is inconsistent with their original ideas, but it just gives entrepreneurs the opportunity to innovate. As we all know, the event itself has happened. However, no one accepts them as reality, let alone opportunities. People who dare to accept facts contrary to traditional ideas-in fact, people who actively seek these facts-can have a long time to carry out undisturbed innovation activities alone. Generally speaking, this demographic change will only be accepted by competitors when it is about to be replaced by new demographic changes and new demographic status quo.