If the property market in China collapses, will it be like Taiwan Province Province or Japan?

1990, when Japan's housing prices were the craziest, the per capita annual income in Tokyo (equivalent to Beijing) was 694 1 000 yen (equivalent to RMB 390,000 today); The average price of a middle-high-rise house (equivalent to a commercial house in China) with a usable area of 75 square meters (equivalent to a building area of about 100 square meters) within the circle of 10 km (equivalent to the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing) is 390,000 *18.7 = 7.29 million yuan, equivalent to 72,900 yuan/square meter. The average price of 20~30 kilometers away from the circle (equivalent to the average price of Beijing Fifth Ring Road to Sixth Ring Road) is 390,000 * 8.95 = 36,500 yuan/square meter. You know, this is the peak of Japan's economy, with a per capita income of 390,000 RMB, the highest value of housing prices created in the craziest period. Since then, house prices and land prices in Tokyo have fallen all the way, with the biggest drop of 70%. Up to now, 26 years later, the house price in Tokyo has only recovered to about 50% of its original high point. Looking back at our first-tier cities, the per capita income is only 1/3 ~ 1/5 of that of Tokyo, but the house price has basically been in line with the peak of Tokyo's real estate bubble. So where is the space and motivation for housing prices in first-tier cities to continue soaring in the future? After Tokyo's housing price bubble burst, it fell by 70%. What about our first-tier cities? The net inflow of population will not lead to a decline in house prices. One of the main reasons why people look at first-tier housing prices and bearish on third-and fourth-tier housing prices now is that the population in first-tier cities is a net inflow, while the population in third-and fourth-tier cities is a net outflow. The subtext is that as long as there is a net inflow of population, house prices will only rise and not fall. Is that really the case? According to the population movement report released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, in 20 14, the inflow of the Japanese capital circle (Tokyo and its surrounding three counties) minus the outflow was 109408, an increase of 12884 over the previous year, and a continuous increase of 19. But even so, it still can't stop Tokyo's house prices from plummeting 70% from the highest point, and there is still a 50% discount. It can be seen that the net inflow of population is not the reason why house prices only rise but not fall. When the bubble accumulated to a certain extent and began to burst, the so-called net inflow of population could not stop the decline of house prices. This is the same as when the stock market bubble burst.