20 12 Asia in the second half of the year: Is the recovery more stable? The most stable online resource station in Asia.

UBS Wealth Management recently released a report on Global Financial Markets, saying that the global outlook in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. The euro zone crisis still casts a shadow over Asian exports, which may endanger the asset market in the region. The Federal Reserve just lowered its GDP forecast of 20 12 and 20 13, and raised its unemployment rate forecast at the end of the year. At the same time, Asian governments are actively relaxing monetary and fiscal policies, which will help mitigate the downside risks of Asian assets and promote a more stable economic recovery in the second half of the year.

In the latest 20 12 survey of private banks by Asian Currency magazine, UBS Wealth Management has just been rated as the favorite bank for high-net-worth individuals with personal assets exceeding $5 million.

The recovery continues.

Asia won the inflation campaign in the first half of 20 12, and then will fight against western shocks in the second half. The worsening debt crisis in peripheral European countries has cast a shadow over the Asian region: China's exports to Europe shrank in April; The wholesale financing obtained by Indian banks from Europe has dropped sharply; In May, Greece's exit from the euro zone entered a critical juncture, and Asian stock markets also fell sharply. Although the results of the Greek parliamentary elections brought some comfort, investors' attention quickly turned to Spain and Italy. In the United States, the Federal Reserve just lowered its GDP forecasts for 20 12 and 20 13 years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast at the end of the year.

However, the inflation rate in Asia is gradually decreasing. Considering that food and energy prices are expected to continue to fall, most Asian governments can continue to loosen monetary policy to support economic growth. Chinese mainland, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan Province Province have also taken corresponding measures.

China's economy is expected to recover from the second half of this year. Falling inflation caused the Bank of China to lower the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate in June, which was the first time since the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio in 2008. The China Municipal Government has also accelerated the examination and approval of infrastructure projects and introduced measures to encourage enterprises to invest. We believe that China's fiscal stimulus policy is beneficial to the whole region, although some economies, such as Indian, Malaysian, Taiwan Province and Thailand, are unable to introduce stimulus measures similar to those of China due to high public debt. In short, the focus of Asian countries is shifting from fighting inflation to maintaining growth. Although the euro zone crisis is still a big drag, we don't think it will be an obstacle to Asian economic recovery.

Still cautious in the second half of the year.

The current P/B ratio of MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) Index is 1.49 times, which is lower than the historical average of 1.8 times. The price-to-book ratio of MSCI China Index is 1.53 times, which is 2.03 times lower than the historical average. This means that the valuation of Asian (excluding Japan) stock markets is generally attractive. We predict that with the gradual recovery of the market to the average level, there will be 65,438+00% room for the valuation of Asian stock markets in the next six months. We are still optimistic about Chinese stocks and US stocks listed overseas. Based on the low point in 2008/09, we think there is still room for 10 ~ 20% decline in South Korea and other three markets. But this sharp drop has also brought favorable buying opportunities. Asian countries, especially China, will introduce stronger support policies. Therefore, the inventory of China and the whole Asian region is expected to recover lost ground earlier than other regions, and gradually stabilize.

Bonds are both profitable and defensive assets. At present, the total yield of US dollar investment-grade bonds in Asia is 4.3%, which is slightly higher than the average inflation rate of 4. 1% in the region as of April. With the further decline of inflation, investment-grade bonds are still a low-risk capital preservation investment tool in the current environment. At the same time, the total yield of high-yield bonds reached 8.5%, higher than the historical average of 7-8%. We believe that Asian corporate bonds are defensive assets, and investors are advised to keep a considerable number of investment-grade bonds and some high-quality and high-yield bonds, but the latter should not be used as leveraged positions. When volatility rises and liquidity dries up, the price of high-yield bonds usually falls sharply. Local currency bonds, such as Renminbi (CNY/CNH) and Singapore dollar (SGD) bonds, are suitable for long-term investors, because these two bonds benefit from the falling inflation in Asia and the stable balance of payments.

Generally speaking, Asian currencies (excluding Japan) have good appreciation potential against major currencies (such as the euro and the yen) because the region continues to enjoy a current account surplus. However, in the second half of the year, Asian currencies may be subject to the rising risk aversion caused by the euro crisis, leading to market turmoil and the appreciation of the US dollar. In addition, when inflation is falling and export growth is still slow, most Asian policymakers are not in a hurry to let their currencies appreciate. Therefore, we believe that if the euro crisis worsens, Asian currencies (except Japanese yen and RMB) will face downward pressure. We are optimistic about the renminbi because it faces political pressure from the United States to appreciate it; We are optimistic about the Singapore dollar because of inflation; Due to the expectation that risk aversion will cool down, I am optimistic about the relatively cheap Korean won and Indonesian rupiah. We still advise investors not to hold the currencies of countries with weak balance of payments, such as Indian Rupee.

Recommended investment theme

Based on the trends that may affect the financial market in the second half of the year, we put forward some specific topics on how investors can take advantage of these trends or how to avoid potential traps.

As mentioned earlier, policies play an important role in the economic recovery in Asia. As far as China is concerned, policy relaxation has created favorable conditions for dim sum debt, while other measures are beneficial to the construction of affordable housing and related consumer industries. In Singapore, inflationary pressure prompted the Monetary Authority (MAS) to let the Singapore dollar appreciate directly, and the government readjusted its economic and immigration policies to benefit consumption-related stocks, but it was not good for low-paid industries. The new government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region may put pressure on real estate investment.

After the large-scale construction of affordable housing from 20 10 to 20 1 1 in China, it has now been transferred from the construction period to the completion period. 20 13 will mark the beginning of accelerated occupancy of residents. We predict that the supply of affordable housing will soar from 6.5438+0.5 million units this year to 3.6 million units in 2065.438+03 and 5.7 million units in 2065.438+04. Therefore, the investment we favor is gradually moving closer to the opportunities brought by related consumer industries. This trend will become more and more obvious in the second half of the year. More benefits may come from the government's policies to promote the construction and consumption of affordable housing. China has announced the subsidy policy for home appliances, and we expect more subsidies and tax cuts. The government may further strengthen the development of affordable housing to ease the real estate investment and economic slowdown. In addition, the continuous recovery of commercial housing sales also helps to promote real estate-related consumption.

Consumer industries (household goods, automobiles and aviation) will be the main beneficiaries of the increase in per capita disposable income and the increase in real estate-related expenditures. The banking industry is also expected to benefit from the rising demand for housing mortgage loans. We also found that some real estate developers, construction companies and cement machinery manufacturers have investment opportunities.

20 12 will be a turning point in the development of smart phones in Asia. In the foreseeable future, more fashionable mobile phones in Asia will promote the growth of smartphone consumption by more than 50%. The basis of this forecast is that we believe that the increase of per capita disposable income in Asia, the reduction of smartphone cost, the improvement of network coverage and the attractive price of data services will lead to more people being able to afford smartphones. The mid-to high-end smart phone industry in Asia is increasingly dominated by Apple and Samsung, while the number of "Made in China" low-end smart phones whose price is less than $ 150 and whose chips are made in MediaTek will increase greatly. The rising application rate of smart phones is not only beneficial to the growth prospects of the supply chain in Asia's technology industry, but also beneficial to telecom operators in the region. The proportion of data services in total revenue is expected to increase from 30% in the past to more than 40%.

Contact editor :ruonan.deng@moneydao.com.